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2024 AAC Football Predictions with Odds and Expert Betting Advice

by Robert Ferringo - 8/15/2024

AAC football predictions Byrum Brown South Florida

A conference, by any other name, can stink as much.

The American Athletic Conference is now basically just the retread, rehashed, rebooted Conference USA. Except, thanks to some random recent successes from since-departed teams at the top of the conference, the AAC retains just a hint of faux credibility and respectability. It’s a second-tier league filled with third- and fourth-tier programs who’s only bragging rights are, “Hey, at least we’re not the Sun Belt.”

The odds would have you believe that the AAC title race is really anyone’s ball game. And in a conference this middling, that very well may be true. But the league championship – and a potential bid to the 12-team playoff – is really Memphis’ to lose.

Texas-San Antonio will again be solid. Tulane is trying to overcome a coaching change. And squads like South Florida, East Carolina and Florida Atlantic are just good enough to be considered land mines. However, Memphis is the cream of the crop in this crowd.

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Here is my 2024 AAC Conference preview and predictions:

The Favorite: Memphis (+225)

Memphis must feel like the older sibling whose younger brother just won’t stop following them around and annoying them. The Tigers ditched Conference USA in 2013 to move up in the college ranks. But here they are, stuck playing the same lightweights they’ve tried to get away from. The 2023 campaign ended with Memphis beating Iowa State to earn a 10th victory, the fourth time in the last decade that the Tigers have posted a double-digit winning season. This might be their best team since the 2019 squad that finished 12-2 and ranked the Top 20. Ryan Silverfield has 10 starters back on his always-sensational offense, led by stud quarterback Seth Hanigan. Memphis has a big test at Florida State on Sept. 14. A win there would all but guarantee them a slot in the 12-team college playoff. But even a loss and a convincing run through the AAC (this team will be facing inflated odds all year) could earn Memphis the one guaranteed Group of Five bid.

The Contender: UT-San Antonio (+500)

Jeff Traylor has it going in San Antonio. With 43 wins and just nine losses over the past three years, UTSA has been one of the top Group of Five programs in the country during that stretch. And with 14 starters back this season, there shouldn’t be a major drop-off. Unfortunately, one of the starters they lost was Frank Harris, a four-year starting quarterback that was on campus for seven years and left UTSA with 38 school records. New quarterback Owen McCown threw just 58 passes last year and lost his two top receivers. However, with perhaps the league’s top defense, four returning starters on the offensive line and their top three rushers back in the fold, look for Traylor to try some more ground-and-pound this season. That may be good for the W-L record but may not be good enough for UTSA backers trying to cover double-digit spreads.

The Dark Horse: South Florida (+700)

Head coach Alex Golesh will be dining out on the story of his team’s 45-0 Boca Raton Bowl thrashing of Syracuse for years to come. Now the trick for Golesh is to turn that momentum from last year’s surprise 7-6 campaign into something more this season. South Florida didn’t beat a single team that finished with a winning record last year. But they have 18 starters back from that squad, including 10 on offense, led by dual-threat quarterback Byrum Brown. The Bulls have a brutal nonconference slate that features games at Alabama and at home against Miami. They also host Memphis on a Friday night in primetime (after a bye week) and they should play a role in the AAC race.

The X-Factor: East Carolina (+1600)

Can Mike Houston coach? This guy has to be on the hot seat after an ugly 2-10 season where one of the wins came over FCS Gardner-Webb. Sure, ECU had three losses by three points or less and went 0-4 in one-score games. But that’s football. Houston is 24-34 straight up in his career and needs to turn this year’s squad, with 14 returning starters, into something. ECU had one of the worst passing offenses in the country last year and was held below two touchdowns in half of their games. Better quarterback play from either Jake Garcia or Katin Houser, along with some better turnover luck, should go a long way in helping this team rebound. But how much?

The Disappointment: Tulane (+350)

Tulane has consistently been predicted to finish in the top three in this league this season and even garnered two first place votes in the preseason media poll. I’m sorry, but I don’t see it. Losing stud quarterback Michael Pratt was a big blow. But I think that the loss of head coach Willie Fritz, the best Tulane football coach since the end of the Great Depression, is a serious setback for this program. Tulane has gone 23-5 straight up over the last two years, including that incredible 2022 Cotton Bowl upset of USC. So, there is only one direction for this club to go – down. New head coach Jon Sumrall did excellent things in two years at Troy and does inherit 15 returning starters. But I just think that Fritz is that good, and I don’t see this team competing for the AAC title.

The Undervalued: UAB (+3000)

I’m still not completely sold on Trent Dilfer as a legit college football coach. However, there isn’t nearly as much hype around this team this season as there was going into last year, when Dilfer, on a much smaller scale, was a media curiosity similar to Deion Sanders. Dilfer had a complete rebuild on his hands and had to tear this program down to the studs. He returns his quarterback and five offensive line starters on offense. And defensively, he upgraded the talent through the transfer portal after finishing with the No. 132-ranked stop unit in the country. (There are only 133 teams.) This is a more capable team with an easier schedule and more familiarity in Year 2. I can see this group being a live dog throughout the season.

Rice (+2800)

Rice beat Houston and nearly knocked off Tulane and SMU last season while going 8-5 against the spread. I think there is still some meat on the bone with this group and I think they will be a factor in the conference race since they play each of the top four teams. Rice plays Houston, Tulane and Memphis on the road, and those games should see the Owls catching double-digits in each game. I think another season above .500 ATS is in the cards for this group. And with better turnover luck, they could be a surprise.

The Rest:

Florida Atlantic (+2500) – Don’t sleep on Tom Herman. He left Texas with his tail tucked between his legs. But this guy can coach. Last year was his first season with a losing record in seven attempts. And he had things cooking at Houston so he knows how to win in a second-tier league like this. FAU had a brutal schedule last year. If they get improved play from the offensive backfield, this team could be a handful and I see them as a solid ATS value.

North Texas (+2500) – The most interesting thing about this program is how closely they resemble the Fightin’ Armadillos from the 1991 hit “Necessary Roughness”. There just isn’t anything there with this squad. They went 5-7 last season, and it’s tough to get fired up for Eric Morris. These guys are an NPC.

Army (+2200) – Army had a cup of coffee in Conference USA from 1998-2004. To say it didn’t go well is an understatement, as they went 13-67 overall and 9-41 in league play. Jeff Monken has done exceptional work in his 10 years at West Point. But the novelty of the option offense is lost when you’re playing the same opponents each season and everyone is prepared for it. Army did beat UTSA last year and have eight starters back on offense. I don’t see them matching last year’s 6-6 mark, though, and think this season is going to be a slog.

Navy (+3000) – Speaking of a slog, Navy is just 16-30 over the last four seasons and have become the weakest of the service academies. Brian Newberry still has plenty to prove. Though the second-year head coach does have 14 starters back, which is rare for the Middies. Navy has been trending in the right direction defensively, allowing just 22 points per game last season. But they averaged below 20 points on offense (17.7) for just the second time in the past 20 years and have to find a way to score some points.

Charlotte (+5000) – Biff! Biff Poggi is as college football of a name as you will ever find. I have never seen or met the man, but I feel like I know absolutely everything that I need to about him. Charlotte was a nonfactor last season. But Poggi was able to rack up transfers from major programs and should have a higher talent level this season. Because expectations are so low for this program, I feel like there might be some value on a group that covered double-digit spreads against Maryland, Florida, SMU and Memphis last year.

Tulsa (+4000) – Much like Tom Herman at FAU, don’t sleep on Kevin Wilson. His teams at Indiana were always overmatched in the Big Ten. But they were always competitive. Wilson is trying to build his program through recruiting, not transfers, so the Golden Hurricane are likely a year away. The back half of their schedule is rough. But if Wilson is making any headway, this team will be an ATS darling in October and November.

Temple (+15000) – Stan Drayton should start interviewing real estate agents. He has gone 3-9 in each of his last two years and this might be his worst team yet. Temple has just 10 starters back, lost its starting quarterback, top two rushers, top two receivers, and nine of its top 10 tacklers. It’s not going to be pretty, and this team is just 15-30 ATS in its last 45 lined games. 

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