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4 Nations Face-Off Predictions and Betting Odds

by Ryan Cobbett - 12/10/2024

4 Nations Face-Off predictions with betting odds Sam Reinhart Team Canada

After quite some time, we will see the NHL’s best participate in an international tournament in February. The 4 Nations Face-Off is a round robin style tournament that takes place February 12th to the 20th of 2025. The two host cities will be Boston and Montreal, and the four countries that are represented in this tournament is Canada, USA, Sweden, and Finland. The tournament is not until February. However, after we had the official rosters revealed last week, now is a great time to see how these four countries match up on paper. As it stands now, Canada has the best odds of winning the round robin tournament at +135. They are followed by, in order, USA (+175), Sweden (+490), and Finland (+700). Let’s see what each team has going for them and what their biggest problem may be in this stout field of four.

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Canada: The favorites of this round robin are favorites for two reasons, their deep forward group and the pre-established blueline chemistry. When you have a top line of Sam Reinhart, Connor McDavid, and Nathan MacKinnon, you can expect some flashy plays and a lot of offense. The problem for the other three teams is that the Canadians have a fourth line of Sam Bennett, Anthony Cirelli, and Travis Konecny, which will give the other teams little time to catch their breath. Their defensemen group lucked out, as they have two pairs already playing together. Cale Makar and Devon Toews (Colorado) and Shea Theodore and Alex Pietrangelo (Vegas) have their playing speed locked and loaded with 27 games under their belt this season. Team Canada may have the best forward group, and it would be hard to argue against their blueliners being the best bunch. However, they have the worst goaltending situation. Adin Hill, Jordan Binnington, and Sam Montembault all rank 20th or worst in GA/G this season, and the trio has combined for a .902 SV% this season. Luckily, the trio of goaltenders has an incredible offense in front of them to provide quick leads.

USA: This squad is all about their goaltending. Connor Hellebuyck will inevitably be named the starter, and he will have Jake Oettinger and Jeremy Swayman right behind him. Swayman has struggled this season, but Oettinger and Hellebuyck have continued to be two of the best goalies in the NHL. Hellebuyck is allowing just 2.14 GA/G on a .927 SV% this season, while Oettinger has allowed just 2.42 GA/G on a .912 SV% this season. Overall, this is a ground and pound group that has some incredible offensive capabilities within their top two lines. USA will have both Tkachuk brothers and some defensively minded forwards on their fourth line, which could be enough to slow down the Canadians high powered offense. Kyle Connor will be a huge benefactor of his line mates (Jack Eichel and Matthew Tkachuk) passing ability, while their second line of Jake Guentzel, Auston Matthews, and Jack Hughes will tune up the scoring chances. The knock on the USA is that they are in the shadows of Canada and their skaters. The Americans have a good shot of winning this thing if they can make the Canadians uncomfortable, but this group is almost entirely reliant on their netminding trio to carry them through the tournament.

Sweden: The Swedes are relying on their squad’s overall experience and their deep blueline group. Victor Hedman and Erik Karlsson have both won the Norris Trophy and have years of winning experience and performing at a high level. Hedman will likely be paired with Rasmus Dahlin as the top pair with Gustav Forsling joining Karlsson. Mattias Ekholm and Rasmus Andersson are two names to pay attention to, as Ekholm is one of the most under appreciated names in the NHL, while Andersson is capable of playing some big minutes as he is averaging nearly 25 minutes of ice time per game. Their forwards are also experienced, but not as deep as Canada or the USA. Jesper Bratt, Mika Zibanejad, and William Nylander should form the top line for the Swedes, with perhaps an even better offensively minded line of Filip Forsberg, Elias Pettersson, and Lucas Raymond right behind them. The goalie group is made up by Linus Ullmark, Jacob Markstrom, and Filip Gustavsson, with Gustavsson having the best season of any goalie in the NHL this season, and he has some stout veterans behind him who can help take the pressure off. The one glaring problem for the Swedes top six skaters is that Zibanejad has had a terrible year this year for the ailing Rangers but is going to be a crucial piece of the Swedish offense. He currently has a -14 +/- rating and is on pace to tally just 18 goals this season, which is well below the 28.75 goals per season average he has had in his eight-year career with the Rangers.

Finland: The underdogs of the group are going to be heavily dependent on their top line and Juuse Saros. The goalie group is led by Saros, with Kevin Lankinen and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen as backups. Saros has been one of the few bright spots for the Nashville Predators this season, as the veteran goalie is allowing just 2.64 GA/G with a .911 SV%. Lankinen has been keeping the Vancouver Canucks relevant in Thatcher Demko’s absence and is on pace to have the best year in his career, while Luukkonen has been reliable for Buffalo. This is by far the deepest group on the Finnish roster, but they will only go as far as Saros can take them. Similarly to the Canadians blueline group, the top defensemen pair will have some pre-established chemistry, with Miro Heiskanen and Esa Lindell of the Dallas Stars. As for the forwards, their top line of Artturi Lehkonen, Aleksander Barkov, and Mikko Rantanen will be exciting to watch, with Patrik Laine, Sebastion Aho, and Teuvo Teravainen behind them. Another positive of the forwards group is there are three pairs of teammates. Lehkonen and Rantanen (Colorado) on the first line, Aho and Teravainen (though not currently together, but had a lot of time in Carolina), and Anton Lindell and Eetu Luostarinen (Florida) all should have some chemistry on the ice. However, the glaring weak spot of the Fins is the lack of depth on the roster, compared to the other three squads. After their second line, the forwards group falls way off, and the goalie group behind Saros may not be the most reliable.

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