3M Performance 400 Odds and Predictions
by Christopher G. Shepard - 08/15/2008
Having conquered NASCAR's road courses with last Sunday's Sprint Cup win at Watkins Glen--his eighth of the season--Kyle Busch has clinched the top spot in the Chase for the Sprint Cup, and will now try to win on the two-mile oval at Michigan International Speedway this Sunday at 2 p.m. (the race will be televised by ESPN).
If you are going to Michigan International Speedway for NASCAR weekend you'll get to enjoy the new scoreboard and turn-one seating with all the amenities and excellent facilities. If you are camping you'll be happy to know that there are 300 new campsites at the Graves Farm location complete with electric hook-ups. Most likely you'll have to poach your own WiFi, but when you have live racing all weekend who needs Wifi? I recommend doing it the old-fashioned way and calling in your sports investment this weekend.
Who will win the 3M PERFORMANCE 400?
Say what you want, but it seems like Kyle Busch has gotten more help from the weather than anything else and Sunday's win at the Glen was just another example of the Sprint Cup points leader falling backwards into the pole due to weather washing out the qualifiers. Certainly Busch is a threat to win from any position on the grid, but getting clean air on a road course isn't a bad place to start a race.
Last time Kyle Busch raced at Michigan he was the beneficiary of the weather canceling qualifying and started the race from the pole. It didn't help him last race and he finished 13th. Fresh off of making NASCAR history by sweeping all three road courses in one season Busch is in good position to do well at the 3M Performance 400, and while I predict a top-five finish for Busch, I think we'll see a different familiar face taking the checkered flag on Sunday.
There are several drivers capable of winning the 3M and indeed Michigan has been generous to many drivers over the years as 14 different drivers have won at Michigan in 18 Sprint Cup races. Kurt Busch is the defending race champion but I have a hard time seeing him do any better than a top-15 finish.
There are three drivers I am keying on; Jimmy Johnson, Matt Kenseth and Carl Edwards. I like Johnson because he has been a maniac on oval tracks finishing third, first and second. Kenseth has the potential to dominate on oval tracks. Combine Johnson's successes on the 2-mile oval with Matt Kenseth and Edwards and the drivers enjoy an average finish of fourth place over the past four races at Michigan. So it wouldn't be a huge surprise to me if one of these three drivers wins the race.
For those who embrace the idea of betting a little to win a lot how can you not love Edwards and crew chief Bob Osborne? Two weeks ago they gambled on fuel and won the Pennsylvania 500 on fumes for Edwards' fourth win of the season. Edwards took over the second place spot in the Sprint Cup with the win two weeks ago.
While there are a lot of leans pointing toward Johnson winning on Sunday, Rousch Fenway Racing has historically owned the two-mile tracks and I'm going to try to ride that trend this weekend with RFR's No. 99 car.
Pick! Carl Edwards, No. 99, 5/1
SOLID GOLD PICKS
Sportsbook.com has listed many matchups on the 3M Performance 400 this weekend. Two weeks ago we backed the No. 16 car with Greg Biffle at +1.15. While Biffle was in front of Matt Kenseth's No. 17 car the last pit stop killed me and put Biffle two places behind Kenseth's 11th-place finish. The one-unit loss brings my record Over-the-Wall to 12-13 with -.70 units on the season after 22 of 36 Sprint Cup races completed. As of deadline Friday matchups had not been posted so I'll resume the matchups next weekend.
LONG ODDS PICK
Vickers sports one top-five and four top-10 finishes at Michigan and at No. 17 in the Sprint Cup rankings he's close to making the Chase. He'll need to overcome, somehow, 210 points to get there and considering that there is a scant 148 points between sixth place and 13th, Vickers has a ton of motivation to race his guts out at Michigan. Consider the fact that in 2007 Vickers best tracks were the two-mile tracks. Vickers is getting better with every race. Granted he'll have to finish better than 15th place in the next four races if he hopes to make the Chase, but for our purposes we'll settle for first place at Michigan at 20/1.
Pick! Brian Vickers, No. 83, (20/1)
3M PERFOMRANCE 400 Odds*
Michigan International Speedway
Sunday, Aug 17th (2:00pm EST)
AJ Allmendinger100/1
Bobby LaBonte100/1
Brad Coleman 150/1
Brian Vickers 20/1
Carl Edwards 5/1
Casey Mears 100/1
Clint Bowyer 40/1
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 10/1
Dave Blaney 100/1
David Gilliland 100/1
David Ragan 25/1
David Reutimann 100/1
Denny Hamlin 15/1
Elliott Sadler 50/1
Greg Biffle 12/1
Jamie McMurray 60/1
Jeff Burton 30/1
Jeff Gordon 15/1
Jimmie Johnson 11/2
Joe Nemechek 100/1
Johnny Sauter 150/1
Juan Pablo Montoya 80/1
Kasey Kahne 8/1
Kevin Harvick 30/1
Kurt Busch 40/1
Kyle Busch 6/1
Marcos Ambrose 100/1
Mark Martin 30/1
Martin Truex Jr. 30/1
Matt Kenseth 15/2
Michael Waltrip 100/1
Mike Skinner 125/1
Patrick Carpentier 100/1
Paul Menard 100/1
Reed Sorenson 100/1
Regan Smith 100/1
Robby Gordon 100/1
Ryan Newman 50/1
Sam Hornish Jr. 100/1
Scott Riggs 125/1
Terry Labonte 100/1
Tony Raines 125/1
Tony Stewart 10/1
Travis Kvapil 100/1
*Odds courtesy of Bodog.