Fourth and Inches
by Doc
Our first six-unit play of the year came home as expected as Penn State, a 10-point underdog, gave Purdue all it could handle. In reality, the Nittany Lions had several opportunities to win this game straight up, only to falter when they got inside the 10-yard line. We felt the defense for Penn State could put pressure on QB Orton, and the assumption was correct as he was forced to leave the pocket and did throw two interceptions. What probably hurt Penn State the most was the lack of a running attack. This has been the Nittany Lions problem all season and probably will continue to be so.
Speaking of six-unit plays, we will be coming right back with a six-unit play this week. The selection will be in the Big Ten. I wanted to use this game as my Big Ten Game of the Year, but the oddsmakers didn't quite give me the line I wanted. However it does merit being a six-unit play and we will get the job done.
At the start of the season I picked Michigan to win the Big Ten with Wisconsin knocking on the door. Looks like it could just happen. Michigan looked good against a very talented Minnesota club. The Wolverines key positions are filled with some very young players, a couple being true freshman. These guys will only get better and I see this club improving each week. Look out! As for Wisconsin, the offense has been the problem all year. This past Saturday, that side of the ball certainly improved. The young Sophomore QB for the Badgers, John Stocco, had the best day of his career. That performance could give him a lot of confidence for the remaining stretch.
The Badgers defense is number one in the country. Will they still have this rating after they visit Purdue this week?
As for Purdue, you certainly can't count them out of the race. The Boilers are 5-0 and in reality have a good schedule, as they catch Wisconsin Michigan and Ohio State at home. What a finish this Big Ten conference could have.
I read where Kevin Cosgrove, the defensive coordinator for Nebraska, stated, "We just have to put this behind us." Of course Cosgrove was speaking of the 70-10 shellacking the Huskers were handed by Texas Tech. I knew 'Cos' when he was the defensive coordinator at Wisconsin. Kevin is a great guy and I had mixed feelings about the loss. We released Texas Tech, so I guess you know who I was cheering for. You certainly can't blame teams for running it up after all the years the "Huskers" did it. Nebraska plays Baylor this week and it probably will be payback time for last week. As for the Nebraska fans, the glory days of old may be over for some time.
No real big games this week like the past week. One has to wonder if some of these teams who played high, emotional games last week could come in flat this week. Oklahoma, a 20-point favorite on the road; Texas, favored by 14½ over Missouri; Southern Cal, favored by 10½ over Arizona State; California, favored by 14 over UCLA. These are the type of games to stay away from unless you're considering the dog.
In the Pros this past week, we were on Seattle -7 over Saint Louis and also had San Francisco -1 over Arizona. In the middle of the fourth quarter it looked like the Seahawks were home free, enjoying a two-touchdown lead, and the 49'ers were behind by 16 points and in deep trouble. What a reversal on these two. Seattle loses and San Francisco wins. Fortunately for us, we at least split. I really feel bad for anyone who lost both games. We have done well in the Pros this year, however, I still maintain college is where the money can be made!
After 33 years one would think this business would get easier. Not the case, especially if one has a lot of pride in what you do. It's a constant battle, always trying to find the best information possible.
Maybe it's why very few people stay in the business for a long time. Saturdays are always the worst. Quite often I'll sit back in my chair and say a couple of words to a treasured autographed picture in my office. "Crazy Legs, you think we have a chance with this one?" Of course I'm speaking of Elroy 'Crazy Legs' Hirsch. Elroy is a Hall-of-Famer, playing eleven seasons in the NFL, was General Manager of the Rams, and then returned to Wisconsin to be Athletic Director. I had the privilege to know him. What a big example of life. Hirsch passed away in February of this past year. If I had a few wishes to come true, one would be a direct line to 'Crazy Legs'. He certainly would be a big help in making the weekend selections. After 33 years, one would think it would get easier. I know it won't, but I love it and probably will until the day I die. There is no greater 'high' than having a good weekend and knowing our valued customers did too. And believe me we have the best customers in the world.
Over/unders are becoming increasingly popular in college football. I personally think one can get an edge on this type of bet if you spend the time evaluating the match up. Determining whether a certain team can or cannot run or pass against another team, is the key. In other words, defenses become the most important ingredient in determining whether a team will go over or under. A good example of this is last week's match up of Penn State and Purdue. The Boilers have a high explosive offense, however they were facing the strength of Penn State, which is their defense. On the flip side, Purdue's weakness is their defense, facing the weakness of Penn State, which is their offense. The over/under of that game was 48½ , and everything pointed to the under. For the most part, the Big Ten has been predictable this year with over/unders, and you may see us making more choices in this category. We are a perfect 4-0 this season for college football totals. Not everybody handles over/unders in college football, so it's very important to shop around for an out.
One of the games I'll have my eye on this week is Boston College at Pittsburgh. A few years back Coach Walter Harris for the Panthers really had this program going forward. Pittsburgh struggled last week against Temple. Was this struggle because they were looking ahead, or because recruiting hasn't been as good the last few years? I think we have the answer.
Don't forget, our second 6-unit game goes this week. It'll be in the Big Ten. That's it for this week!
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