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2024 Boston Red Sox Predictions with World Series Odds and Season Win Total Picks

by Ryan Cobbett - 2/13/2024

Boston Red Sox predictions Rafael Devers

Summary of Last Season

There is only one word to describe how the Boston Red Sox season went a year ago… disastrous. They have now finished in the basement of the AL East in back-to-back seasons. They would finish 11 games behind division foe Toronto Blue Jays for the last wild card spot and finished six games below .500 and posted a -4-run differential on the campaign.

After all the hype around the Masataka Yoshida signing, the Japanese star came over and posted average production and failed to catapult the offense like originally expected. Star third-baseman Rafael Devers led the offense with 33 homeruns, 100 RBIs, 157 hits, and finished with a 3.5 WAR. Triston Casas provided a bump to the offense, as the young first-baseman clubbed 24 homeruns and would finish with a .856 OPS.

The lineup was underwhelming, but the pitching staff was worse. Bryan Bello would lead the team in innings pitched at 157, with Nick Pivetta being the only other pitcher to eclipse 130 innings, and both pitchers had +4 ERAs. The best pitchers for the Red Sox were relievers Josh Winckowski and Chris Martin. Winckowski posted a 2.88 ERA in 84.1 innings, while Martin had a 1.05 ERA in 51.1 innings, and the two filled the strike zone, allowing just 17 walks in 135.2 combined innings.

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Boston Red Sox Key Additions/Losses

The Red Sox made some moves to add to a weak lineup. They traded for Tyler O’Neil and Vaughn Grissom. O’Neil was plagued by injuries during his tenure with the Red Sox, but the outfielder has shown flashes of excellence, most notably during the 2021 season where he tallied 34 homeruns and ended with a 6.3 WAR. As for Grissom, the prospect was held back in the Braves system behind long time shortstop Dansby Swanson and last years breakout season by Orlando Arcia. He projects to be a solid hitter and should do well in his first full season in the big leagues. Boston added to the rotation by adding Lucas Giolito on a two-year deal.

They added Giolito knowing they were about to deal Chris Sale. Sale was shipped to Atlanta for Grissom and looks to be a big part of their rotation. Sale and Giolito both underperformed last season, so the rotation doesn’t look to have improved at all. Additionally, James Paxton will not return leaving the team with another 96 innings to fill. The team will also be without Justin Turner and Alex Verdugo, who ranked 2nd and 3rd on the club in at-bats while slugger Adam Duvall is currently a free agent.

Boston Red Sox Prospect Outlook

The farm system is ranked in the top half of the MLB, but only outfielder Ceddanne Rafaela seems to be ready to have an impact on the ensuing season. With Verdugo gone, Yoshida and Jarren Duran seem to be the only locks for the Red Sox outfield so barring any moves, Rafaela could find himself in an everyday role or at the very least in a platoon set. There could be a few arms that could have an impact on the club’s success this season, but the overall outlook for 2024 is underwhelming.

Boston Red Sox X-Factors

Vaughn Grissom- In limited action, the 23-year-old shortstop has a .287 AVG, .746 OPS, and five homeruns in 64 MLB games, with two of those homeruns being at Fenway. Grissom had a .330 AVG and 61 RBIs at AAA last season. He will likely have an everyday appearance in the lineup, and the Red Sox will need him to produce if they are to compete this season.

Rafael Devers- Yes, Devers has always been a top tier bat and has been consistent. But, the X-Factor isn’t his production, it’s the front office’s decision on whether or not to keep him around long-term. His name has been tossed around on the trade market. And with another mild season on deck, the Red Sox could explore trading their star player especially if they fall out of the race early.

Boston Red Sox Expectations

This franchise is a mess. There isn’t a ton of young talent coming up, like Baltimore for example, and the MLB roster is severely underwhelming. The pitching ranked 21st in ERA with a 4.52 mark while also giving up 208 homeruns, which was the 7th most in the MLB. And no offense to Giolito, but he isn’t going to change that all on his own. The rotation is highly questionable, and offensive improvements rest on an unproven shortstop and an injury prone outfielder. The front office seems to be in disarray. Everyone’s goal is to make the playoffs, but for the Red Sox I think their goal is to keep their heads above water.  

Boston Red Sox Notable Odds

World Series Champions- +5000

Pennant Winners- +2700

Division Winners- +1400

Boston Red Sox Predictions

Another last place division finish for the club. They will have their hands full with the Orioles, Blue Jays and even the Yankees. Tampa Bay is somewhat questionable with how their rotation projects, but there is no worse team in the AL East than the Red Sox. Their win total is set at 79.5, and I expect them to fall below that number this season.

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