NFL Power Rankings Week 6
by Robert Ferringo - 10/8/2024

Experience matters. When it comes to the NFL, I want adults at the helm. It leads to a more stable product and more consistent outcomes. NFL owners and executives have proven over and over and over again over the last quarter-century that they really don’t know what they are doing when it comes to finding and grooming head coaches and quarterbacks, with quick-tempered owners and know-nothing fan bases usually driving decision-making.

NFL Power Rankings Week 5
by Robert Ferringo - 10/1/2024

Last week we touched on the prevalence of ‘unders’ in the new, lower-scoring NFL. Quite naturally, the ‘under’ went just 7-9 last week. That’s how regression and the market works. By the time that bettors lock on to a trend, the books have already adjusted the numbers the other way. So just when natural statistics revert toward the mean, the odds have already gone in the opposite direction. This week I wanted to touch on the other marquee early season trends: underdogs.

NFL Power Rankings Week 4
by Robert Ferringo - 9/24/2024

Don’t let Monday Night Football’s two high-scoring results fool you. Scoring is still way down in NFL games this year. Through three weeks, the ‘under’ has gone 29-19 in all NFL games. Over the last two weeks, the ‘under’ is 22-10 (68.8 percent), and I don’t expect to see an eruption of scoring across the league any time soon. There are plenty of analysts that have tried to break down why scoring is down across the NFL. The proliferation of the Shanahan Offense – which is more about efficiency than big plays – and the comeback of the Cover-2 defense with two deep safeties are two major league-wide trends that have depressed scoring. Pathetic quarterback play (due to lack of proper development) is another culprit.

NFL Power Rankings Week 3
by Robert Ferringo - 9/17/2024

I’m going to continue to do this every year. I’m not going to do it as of way of patting myself on the back or showing how smart I am. I’m going to keep bringing this topic up until enough people see it and slowly but surely the general public consensus on NFL rookie quarterbacks changes. I have been talking about it for a decade, and I wrote about this very issue last season. Bottom line: starting a rookie quarterback is a terrible idea.

NFL Power Rankings Week 2
by Robert Ferringo - 9/10/2024

The satisfaction of a full weekend’s worth of NFL action, from the season-opening thriller between the Ravens and Chiefs, through a full Sunday of adrenaline, to the Monday night beatdown, was like a visit from an old friend. The true joy of last weekend was in the familiarity. Getting together with friends. Hanging out with your football-interested kids. Talking about your bets. Talking about your fantasy teams. Complaining about too many penalties. Complaining about (or begging for) Taylor Swift shots. Listening to friends second-guess offensive and defensive play-calls. Drinking. Snacking. Laughing.

2024 Big Ten Football Predictions with Odds and Expert Betting Advice
by Robert Ferringo - 8/29/2024

Bigger is better. Now, most of us are educated, experienced, or at least conditioned enough to know that is not always true. But sometimes it is! And when looking at the new 18-team Big Ten, it is tough to argue that this conference isn’t currently its best self. As much fun as it has been to watch teams like Iowa and Wisconsin slog their way through 10-6 slugfests over the years, an injection of high-end programs from the formerly-rival-now-defunct Pac-12 has definitely added some sizzle to the Big Ten’s steak.

2024 Big 12 Football Predictions with Odds and Expert Betting Advice
by Robert Ferringo - 8/28/2024

“Your guess is as good as ours.” I think that’s the clear message that the oddsmakers are sending with the odds to win the Big 12 football championship this year. The Big 12, like the rest of college football, has undergone a sea change in terms of conference alignment. While the Big Ten poached several of the big-market West Coast programs, the Big 12 absorbed the other Mormon Twin (Utah), welcomed back prodigal stepson Colorado, and took in Arizona and Arizona State (for reasons mainly having to do with basketball and desperation).

2024 ACC Football Predictions with Odds and Expert Betting Advice
by Robert Ferringo - 8/19/2024

The ACC got bigger. It didn’t get better. Desperate to ape the SEC and Big Ten, the ACC expanded its conference with fragments of the splintered Pac-12 (Stanford, California) and SMU. But unlike the two superconferences, the ACC’s moves reeked of desperation and failed to elevate the league. This league isn’t in a good place. The top two programs, Florida State and Clemson, are locked in a legal battle for the right to leave the ACC. It’s contentious. It’s nasty. And it is a bad look for the conference that the two teams favored to represent the league in the expanded playoffs both desperately want out.

2024 AAC Football Predictions with Odds and Expert Betting Advice
by Robert Ferringo - 8/15/2024

A conference, by any other name, can stink as much. The American Athletic Conference is now basically just the retread, rehashed, rebooted Conference USA. Except, thanks to some random recent successes from since-departed teams at the top of the conference, the AAC retains just a hint of faux credibility and respectability. It’s a second-tier league filled with third- and fourth-tier programs who’s only bragging rights are, “Hey, at least we’re not the Sun Belt.”

2024 SEC Football Predictions with Odds and Expert Betting Advice
by Robert Ferringo - 8/14/2024

The winner of the SEC will certainly have earned it. And there is no longer anywhere for teams in this league to hide. Wait. Wait a second. Did I just suggest that over the past 10 years that maybe the SEC wasn’t the all-mighty, all-powerful conference that it pretends to be? Did I dare question the superiority of this league and its own self-referential hype? Yes. Yes I did. Look man, if two programs – Alabama and Georgia – have won nine of the last 10 conference championships, then maybe, just maybe, this league isn’t as great as everyone thinks it is.

2024 NFL Win Total Betting Advice
by Robert Ferringo - 7/16/2024

The genius of the NFL’s communist structure is that it breeds annual optimism. Right now it’s the summer; players, coaches, fans and bettors are all mesmerized by the intoxicating aura of possibility. Everyone has a chance. Everyone thinks this year could be something special.

Best Bets for the Worst NFL Teams for the Coming Season
by Robert Ferringo - 7/12/2024

Summer is the time of unbridled optimism in the NFL. Every team and its fan base have the confidence of achievable goals for the upcoming season. The cold, cruel reality of fall and winter haven’t yet crushed the souls of players, coaches, fans or bettors.

Football Championship Futures Often Not Sound Wagers
by Robert Ferringo - 7/12/2024

When people find out what I do the usually ask me one of two questions: Who is going to win the Super Bowl or who is going to win the national championship. My answer is always the same: I’m not a fortune teller and I can’t see the future, so I’m not sure.

2024 Kentucky Derby Horse Numbers: Post Positions and Expert Analysis
by Robert Ferringo - 4/29/2024

Aristides was an Athenian statesman and general during the Persian War. He was nicknamed, “The Just” and was a huge fan of boxed exactas. He was also the namesake of a Pennsylvanian horse breeder, Aristides Welch, in the 1970’s. And Welch was in turn the namesake for a small chestnut thoroughbred with “a white str and two hind stockings” born in Kentucky in 1972.

2024 March Madness Bracket Predictions: Midwest Region
by Robert Ferringo - 3/21/2024

Sure, there will be some upsets and general insanity throughout the Midwest Region. It’s the NCAA Tournament, after all, and a bit of craziness is to be expected. But when you scan through this part of the bracket it really seems like the most likely to yield a fairly chalky, favorite-laden Elite Eight matchup before sending one of the top seeds to the Final Four.

2024 March Madness Bracket Predictions: West Region
by Robert Ferringo - 3/20/2024

Does defense really win championships? We’re going to find out in the West Region of the 2024 NCAA Tournament. The West boasts four of the highest scoring offenses in college basketball. Alabama (90.8), Arizona (89.5), North Carolina (81.6) and Baylor (81.6) all among the Top 25 in the country in points per game.

2024 Pac-12 Tournament Predictions with Betting Odds and Picks
by Robert Ferringo - 3/13/2024

This is The End. The Pac-12 has been crushed under the cold, cruel weight of The Market and is preparing to be ripped to shreds by the claws of Capitalism. A year from now, this league will no longer exist, with shards being absorbed by the Big 12 and Big Ten. Meaning that this will be the final Pac-12 Tournament ever.

2024 Mountain West Tournament Predictions with Betting Odds and Picks
by Robert Ferringo - 3/13/2024

That’s right, boys and girls, it is that time of the year again. Time to play one of my favorite games: “How Badly Is The Mountain West Gonna Get Screwed?”. It is an annual rite of passage for the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee to absolutely screw the Mountain West and short them the at-large bids that they deserve. It happens every year. The only question is just how egregiously the selection committee will screw the Mountain West in favor of sending mediocre teams from marquee conferences to The Big Dance.

Chiefs Looking at Potential Dynasty in Super Bowl 58
by Robert Ferringo - 2/9/2024

Nihilism is in right now, dear readers, and the only way out is through. So on the eve of a game that may end up as the paragon of American sports spectacle in this century the only rational choice seems to be to embrace The Darkness and use it as fuel, a spiritual heroin. Eat, drink and be merry, folks, for tomorrow we die. At least.

Super Bowl Wagering Advice: Block out the Noise, and Ignore the Spread!
by Robert Ferringo - 2/7/2024

Every year just about everyone I know shoots me a text or an e-mail in the two weeks leading up to the Super Bowl with the same question: “Who is going to win?” With rare exception my answer is usually the same: “How the hell should I know? I’m not a fortuneteller!” Super Bowl handicapping is a completely different animal than handicapping during the regular season. Reports have suggested that as much as $23 billion will be wagered on this year’s game, and everyone looks at this as the Go Big Betting Moment of the year.