NFL Power Rankings Week 12
by Robert Ferringo - 11/19/2024

It is time to pay homage to Mike Tomlin. I’m not going to deep dive into his coaching achievements and his career. I’m not going to stage the debate of whether or not he’s a “great” coach or why if he’s so great he hasn’t won more Super Bowls. I don’t really care about any of that. What I do care about, and what deserves to be recognized, is that Tomlin may be the greatest underdog coach in NFL history.

NFL Power Rankings Week 11
by Robert Ferringo - 11/12/2024

Does anyone remember way, way back in the good old days of Week 1 and Week 2 of this NFL season? Remember when big underdogs were absolutely crushing it for bettors through the first month of the season? Fifteen of the first 17 underdogs of 6.0+ this season beat the number. In the first five weeks of the season, these big dogs were absolutely an automatic play.

NFL Power Rankings Week 10
by Robert Ferringo - 11/5/2024

Choices have consequences. Don’t worry – I’m not here to give you some kind of half-cocked lecture about the election. Like you, I am looking forward to this rotten business being behind us. As much as I am going to miss daily e-mails from Gretchen Whitmer and Marco Rubio, nothing will bring me more joy this winter than being able to watch a full weekend of college and pro football without seeing a single political-oriented ad.

NFL Power Rankings Week 9
by Robert Ferringo - 10/29/2024

I have been writing about football for more than two decades, and for me the bottom line has always been the same. Football is a violent, physical game. The team that is more violent and more physical is going to win more than they are going to lose.

NFL Power Rankings Week 8
by Robert Ferringo - 10/22/2024

Parity has long been one of the NFL’s superpowers. A thin spectrum of talent and ability throughout the league helps keeps things interesting. The league wants close, competitive games. They want “any given Sunday” to ring true. They want upsets and intensity and surprises to keep people coming back for more.

NFL Power Rankings Week 7
by Robert Ferringo - 10/15/2024

The North remembers. Last year the best division in the NFL was clearly the AFC North. The division sent three teams to the playoffs, including the conference’s No. 1 seed, Baltimore. All four teams in the 2023 AFC North finished above .500, and the group combined to go 43-25 straight up and 41-27 against the spread. This year the league’s best division is clearly the NFC North. And they may surpass all the gaudy numbers the 2023 AFC North produced.

NFL Power Rankings Week 6
by Robert Ferringo - 10/8/2024

Experience matters. When it comes to the NFL, I want adults at the helm. It leads to a more stable product and more consistent outcomes. NFL owners and executives have proven over and over and over again over the last quarter-century that they really don’t know what they are doing when it comes to finding and grooming head coaches and quarterbacks, with quick-tempered owners and know-nothing fan bases usually driving decision-making.

NFL Power Rankings Week 5
by Robert Ferringo - 10/1/2024

Last week we touched on the prevalence of ‘unders’ in the new, lower-scoring NFL. Quite naturally, the ‘under’ went just 7-9 last week. That’s how regression and the market works. By the time that bettors lock on to a trend, the books have already adjusted the numbers the other way. So just when natural statistics revert toward the mean, the odds have already gone in the opposite direction. This week I wanted to touch on the other marquee early season trends: underdogs.

NFL Power Rankings Week 4
by Robert Ferringo - 9/24/2024

Don’t let Monday Night Football’s two high-scoring results fool you. Scoring is still way down in NFL games this year. Through three weeks, the ‘under’ has gone 29-19 in all NFL games. Over the last two weeks, the ‘under’ is 22-10 (68.8 percent), and I don’t expect to see an eruption of scoring across the league any time soon. There are plenty of analysts that have tried to break down why scoring is down across the NFL. The proliferation of the Shanahan Offense – which is more about efficiency than big plays – and the comeback of the Cover-2 defense with two deep safeties are two major league-wide trends that have depressed scoring. Pathetic quarterback play (due to lack of proper development) is another culprit.

NFL Power Rankings Week 3
by Robert Ferringo - 9/17/2024

I’m going to continue to do this every year. I’m not going to do it as of way of patting myself on the back or showing how smart I am. I’m going to keep bringing this topic up until enough people see it and slowly but surely the general public consensus on NFL rookie quarterbacks changes. I have been talking about it for a decade, and I wrote about this very issue last season. Bottom line: starting a rookie quarterback is a terrible idea.

NFL Power Rankings Week 2
by Robert Ferringo - 9/10/2024

The satisfaction of a full weekend’s worth of NFL action, from the season-opening thriller between the Ravens and Chiefs, through a full Sunday of adrenaline, to the Monday night beatdown, was like a visit from an old friend. The true joy of last weekend was in the familiarity. Getting together with friends. Hanging out with your football-interested kids. Talking about your bets. Talking about your fantasy teams. Complaining about too many penalties. Complaining about (or begging for) Taylor Swift shots. Listening to friends second-guess offensive and defensive play-calls. Drinking. Snacking. Laughing.

2024 Big Ten Football Predictions with Odds and Expert Betting Advice
by Robert Ferringo - 8/29/2024

Bigger is better. Now, most of us are educated, experienced, or at least conditioned enough to know that is not always true. But sometimes it is! And when looking at the new 18-team Big Ten, it is tough to argue that this conference isn’t currently its best self. As much fun as it has been to watch teams like Iowa and Wisconsin slog their way through 10-6 slugfests over the years, an injection of high-end programs from the formerly-rival-now-defunct Pac-12 has definitely added some sizzle to the Big Ten’s steak.

2024 Big 12 Football Predictions with Odds and Expert Betting Advice
by Robert Ferringo - 8/28/2024

“Your guess is as good as ours.” I think that’s the clear message that the oddsmakers are sending with the odds to win the Big 12 football championship this year. The Big 12, like the rest of college football, has undergone a sea change in terms of conference alignment. While the Big Ten poached several of the big-market West Coast programs, the Big 12 absorbed the other Mormon Twin (Utah), welcomed back prodigal stepson Colorado, and took in Arizona and Arizona State (for reasons mainly having to do with basketball and desperation).

2024 ACC Football Predictions with Odds and Expert Betting Advice
by Robert Ferringo - 8/19/2024

The ACC got bigger. It didn’t get better. Desperate to ape the SEC and Big Ten, the ACC expanded its conference with fragments of the splintered Pac-12 (Stanford, California) and SMU. But unlike the two superconferences, the ACC’s moves reeked of desperation and failed to elevate the league. This league isn’t in a good place. The top two programs, Florida State and Clemson, are locked in a legal battle for the right to leave the ACC. It’s contentious. It’s nasty. And it is a bad look for the conference that the two teams favored to represent the league in the expanded playoffs both desperately want out.

2024 AAC Football Predictions with Odds and Expert Betting Advice
by Robert Ferringo - 8/15/2024

A conference, by any other name, can stink as much. The American Athletic Conference is now basically just the retread, rehashed, rebooted Conference USA. Except, thanks to some random recent successes from since-departed teams at the top of the conference, the AAC retains just a hint of faux credibility and respectability. It’s a second-tier league filled with third- and fourth-tier programs who’s only bragging rights are, “Hey, at least we’re not the Sun Belt.”

2024 SEC Football Predictions with Odds and Expert Betting Advice
by Robert Ferringo - 8/14/2024

The winner of the SEC will certainly have earned it. And there is no longer anywhere for teams in this league to hide. Wait. Wait a second. Did I just suggest that over the past 10 years that maybe the SEC wasn’t the all-mighty, all-powerful conference that it pretends to be? Did I dare question the superiority of this league and its own self-referential hype? Yes. Yes I did. Look man, if two programs – Alabama and Georgia – have won nine of the last 10 conference championships, then maybe, just maybe, this league isn’t as great as everyone thinks it is.

2024 NFL Win Total Betting Advice
by Robert Ferringo - 7/16/2024

The genius of the NFL’s communist structure is that it breeds annual optimism. Right now it’s the summer; players, coaches, fans and bettors are all mesmerized by the intoxicating aura of possibility. Everyone has a chance. Everyone thinks this year could be something special.

Best Bets for the Worst NFL Teams for the Coming Season
by Robert Ferringo - 7/12/2024

Summer is the time of unbridled optimism in the NFL. Every team and its fan base have the confidence of achievable goals for the upcoming season. The cold, cruel reality of fall and winter haven’t yet crushed the souls of players, coaches, fans or bettors.

Football Championship Futures Often Not Sound Wagers
by Robert Ferringo - 7/12/2024

When people find out what I do the usually ask me one of two questions: Who is going to win the Super Bowl or who is going to win the national championship. My answer is always the same: I’m not a fortune teller and I can’t see the future, so I’m not sure.

2024 Kentucky Derby Horse Numbers: Post Positions and Expert Analysis
by Robert Ferringo - 4/29/2024

Aristides was an Athenian statesman and general during the Persian War. He was nicknamed, “The Just” and was a huge fan of boxed exactas. He was also the namesake of a Pennsylvanian horse breeder, Aristides Welch, in the 1970’s. And Welch was in turn the namesake for a small chestnut thoroughbred with “a white str and two hind stockings” born in Kentucky in 1972.