'Big Brother: All-Stars' Betting Odds and Advice
by Jeremy Martin - 07/18/2006
Making money at the expense of another's misery. Ah, the beauty of reality TV betting.
Entertainment props have been receiving massive betting handle for the last several years at the major Internet sportsbooks and Big Brother, the summertime hit reality show on CBS, is no exception. This year's installment of the show pits 14 of the best contestants in Big Brother history against each other for a cash prize of $500,000 for the last man or woman standing.
The contestants, often referred to as 'hamsters' by the viewers, are locked in the Big Brother house for approximately three months with no telephones, Internet, newspapers or any sort of contact with the outside world. The house is full of cameras that capture the houseguests every move.
Every week a 'Head of Household' competition is held and the winner is responsible for nominating two players for eviction. The rest of the house, minus the nominees and the HOH, determine who goes.
'Big Brother: All-Stars' betting is somewhat different than betting on other reality TV shows. This is a constantly changing game. Not only are there three shows per week on CBS, but there are live Internet feeds that can be watched 24 hours a day by fans of the show. Hardcore feed watchers can, no doubt, become aware of developing situations before the oddsmakers do.
With shows like American Idol and Survivor dominating the television ratings, it is no surprise more and more bookies would offer and promote their reality TV menus. Any books that don't offer these types of entertainment props are suddenly at a major disadvantage in the ultra-competitive industry.
"Big Brother is one of the most popular Reality TV shows that Bodog allows customers to wager on," said Calvin Ayre, Founder and CEO of the popular online sportsbook. "One of the reasons that this show is so popular with bettors is because they seem to relate to the show and some of its characters. Also, a lot of information about this show is available on the Internet through live feeds, so many of the fans can follow the outcome quite closely. In the case of 'Big Brother: All-Stars', most fans that watch the show already have a favorite character from a previous edition of the show. The fact that these bettors can show their support for their favorite cast member by wagering on them adds that extra bit of entertainment, especially if their pick ends up being the winner."
There have already been some opportunities to get nice odds on the all-stars version of Big Brother by tracking the 24-hour live feeds. Even if you don't want to subscribe to the feeds, there are sites like JokersUpdates.com that provide up-to-the-minute recaps of the action inside the house.
Before the airing of the first show, CBS had a malfunction in their live feed and they released approximately an hour of audio from inside the house on July 4. The series premier was on July 6 and the feeds were not supposed to start until after the first show aired on the West Coast. >From the hour of leaked audio, viewers were able to determine which of the 20 potential houseguests had made it onto the show.
At this time Bodog was offering an All-Stars prop wager on whether the winner of the show would be a man or a woman and both were listed at -120 (meaning you have to bet $120 to win $100, or $12 to win $10). For those that had the information during the leak, they would have known that there were eight men in the house and only six women. And they also would have heard the news that two women were potentially targeted for a first-week eviction.
It was, indeed, a woman who was evicted first (Allison) and now two more women are on the chopping block for the second eviction (this Thursday). For the same prop bet, the odds currently stand at -160 for a male to win and +120 for a woman (now you must wager $16 for 'male' to win $10). Those that jumped on the "male" prop early got some very nice odds.
There has also been some major fluctuations in the odds for the individual winner of Big Brother in just two weeks since the show's debut. One contestant, Nakomis, was originally listed at 60-1 to bring home the top prize. In the matter of a couple hours those odds went all the way down to 3-1, making her the co-favorite.
"For Reality TV shows, on occasion the Bodog bookmakers will make an extreme line change, as it's sometimes tough to gauge where the money is going to flow," said Ayre. "However, the majority of the bettors that wager on shows, such as Big Brother, will bet on their favorite to win regardless of the line offered. Bodog does on occasion see some more seasoned bettors shop for value lines. Even with low limits, some players can do quite well.
"The Bodog entertainment bookmakers keep a close eye on what information is available to the public. There is never a shortage of information being communicated among reality TV fans on forums, blogs and other sites, so if this information is available on the Internet, the bookmakers will certainly be aware. Also, the Bodog bookmakers are careful to monitor any change in betting patterns or suspicious betting activity."
The following is a rundown of each contestant left in the house with their Big Brother All-Stars betting odds and a prediction of whether they have a chance to cash your ticket. All odds come from Bodog and are current as of July 18, 2006.
Erika (3/1) - She is an 'Under the Radar' player that is easy to get along with and she is actually friends with most of the houseguests in the real world. She has a very good chance to win because of her likeability and, unlike some of the other UTR players, she seems to have some strategy. Deserving of these odds.
Kaysar (7/2) - One of the most popular contestants of all time, the Muslim houseguest will be a major target all season and will likely be nominated as soon as someone outside of his alliance gets HOH. Bad bet.
Marcellas (11/1) - I think this is a great bet at these odds. He seems to get along with everyone and he has some deals in place that should get him far. He hosted the Big Brother talk show on the Internet for a couple seasons and may be the most knowledgeable about the game. He is UTR and probably won't be targeted for awhile.
Howie (14/1) - Not a very good chance of winning. Has bumbled his strategy in season six and he is in an alliance that will be targeted. He gets on many people's nerves and would likely lose any final vote.
Mike (9/1) - This is an intriguing bet at these odds. He is in an alliance with Will, and they will likely be put up together. If that happened, Will would be likely to go and then as a solo player he could make it far.
Janelle (11/2) - Also one of the most popular players of all time, she will be targeted and could be going in a couple weeks. Her only chance to go far is if her alliance keeps winning HOHs. One of the top two targets in the game if not No. 1.
Will (15/1) - The only previous Big Brother winner in the house, this former season two contestant is known as the biggest mastermind this game has ever seen. That, however, has made him one of the biggest targets. He will likely be evicted sooner rather than later.
Jase (5/1) - Initially one of the longshots, his odds have gone all the way down from 15/1, meaning a lot of betting action has been placed on him. This may be a good bet since Jase is playing both sides of the two major alliances and he has also toned down his act from season five.
James (15/2) - A sneaky player that would probably be the last player targeted in his alliance (the season six alliance everyone is primed to go after). Could make it far and is likeable enough to get the votes from the jury. He is a very shrewd player.
Diane (25/1) - One of this week's nominations, these long odds are justified. Although she made the final three in her season, she gave up her strategy for her in-house love interest, who promptly kicked her to the curb and won the show, dumping her soon after. Couldn't seeing her getting the votes even if she made it to the final two. She has to survive eviction this week first.
Danielle (40/1) - Another intriguing possibility at long odds. She was well on her way to winning season three but her diary room tapes that were viewed by her fellow housemates spelled her doom. She is considered one of the smartest players in Big Brother history and, after surviving her week-one nomination, she could be in the game awhile. Could get the final votes needed to win.
George (50/1) - Another UTR player, but this one has NO chance of winning. No one in the house respects him and he would never win a final two vote. He could make it far because he is non-threatening but betting on the Royals to win the World Series would probably be a safer bet.
Nakomis (3/1) - Down from odds of 60/1, Nakomis is one of the two nominees this week along with Diane. If she manages to escape eviction this week, she could go far. An UTR player that has the smarts to win challenges and the personality to win a final two vote.
Bodog has set a limit of $50 for wagering on the winner of 'Big Brother: All-Stars'. Current odds available at Bodog.
Questions or comments? Contact Jeremy@docsports.com.