Belmont Stakes Expert Predictions and Betting Advice

Senior Investment Odds to Win the 2017 Belmont Stakes with Picks and Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 5/28/2017

It wasn't too hard to come up with the top two finishers in the Preakness. They were two of the three most likely winners. If you had Senior Investment to finish third, though, you are doing a kind of handicapping that I don't do, and you wound up cashing a very nice trifecta ticket. I've watched the race enough times to convince myself that the result was no fluke -- he benefitted from circumstance but he earned the finish.

Irap Odds to Win the 2017 Belmont Stakes with Picks and Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 5/28/2017

It's been a wild ride for this colt this spring. He seemed irrelevant in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland, but somehow he won it. And then he was just awful in the Derby. But now he's back for more. Will he again recapture that magic that seemed to come from nowhere in that Derby prep race? He'll have to do that to be relevant in this race, because if he runs like he did before or after that win then he doesn't stand even a small chance of being a factor here.

Meantime Odds to Win the 2017 Belmont Stakes with Picks and Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 5/28/2017

The Belmont wouldn't be the Belmont if there weren't a couple of horses like this one entered. This colt has shown a flash or two of talent, but he is short on experience, hasn't followed a traditional path to get here, and it's very tough to know whether he is anywhere close to good enough. Most often horses like him don't measure up. In the last 20 years, though, seven horses have won at 25/1 or more in this race, so you certainly can't afford to completely ignore horses because they aren't quite on the high level you would generally prefer. That's one of many things that makes this race fundamentally different for handicappers than the Preakness.

Twisted Tom Odds to Win the 2017 Belmont Stakes with Picks and Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 5/28/2017

As I write this it was just confirmed that Chad Brown won't be bringing his Preakness-winning charge Cloud Computing to the Belmont. I hate when the Preakness winner skips the next leg, but I have to admit that it is probably the right move for the sake of the horse. Brown isn't going to miss out on the fun of the Belmont, though, and he is bringing an interesting runner. This colt shares some traits with Cloud Computing - he doesn't have loads of experience but shows great promise and has worked out very well.

Patch Odds to Win the 2017 Belmont Stakes with Picks and Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 5/28/2017

Patch captured the hearts of the general public in the lead-up to the Kentucky Derby because he has only one eye. That was obviously presented in tear-jerking and inspiring fashion leading up to the race, and people were hooked. But then he didn't run much of a race. The same story will likely be told leading up to this race. Can Patch do a better job of representing the hopes and financial dreams of his backers this time around?

2017 Belmont Stakes Betting Advice: Handicapping the Distance
by Trevor Whenham - 5/25/2017

There is no bigger factor in handicapping the Belmont Stakes every year than the distance of the race. At a mile and a half the race is at least a quarter mile further than any of these horses have run before, longer than most will ever run again, and longer than most are bred to reasonably run. For North American horses this is a very long, very challenging race.

How to Bet the Belmont Stakes in 2017: Expert Advice
by Trevor Whenham - 5/24/2017

This is not going to be an easy Belmont Stakes to handicap. Some years it's very straightforward - if you were betting against American Pharoah you were just being contrary. But this year we aren't likely to see either the Derby or Preakness winner in the race, and we are left with a prospective field that is large and deep but which lacks a clearly dominant horse. As a result, we need to be very careful when deciding how we are going to be this race. This is when handicappers earn their credibility.

2017 Belmont Stakes Betting Trends with Expert Analysis
by Trevor Whenham - 5/24/2017

I remember only twice in the last three decades that the Belmont Stakes turned out to be easy to handicap. I was very confident that Point Given was the best horse in his year, and I had no doubt that American Pharoah was the pick in 2015. Every other year has either been much harder to come to a decision, or the easy decision didn't prove to be correct. To help us come to a good decision this year - which isn't going to be easy because this is a very tough field - here are some Belmont trends to hopefully provide some clarity:

2017 Belmont Stakes Field: Early Look and Expert Handicapping
by Trevor Whenham - 5/23/2017

Since American Pharoah won the Triple Crown in 2015, this is the second straight year that we won't have a shot at a repeat in the Belmont Stakes. Always Dreaming won the Derby but then no-showed the Preakness won by Cloud Computing. Even worse, unlike last year when Preakness winner Exaggerator was the Belmont favorite (who forgot to run and finished well back of the winner), it seems very likely that neither the Derby nor the Preakness winner will be in the Belmont.

2016 Belmont Stakes Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 6/10/2016

Let's be honest - this is not the dream Belmont Stakes by any means. We were so spoiled last year that nothing was going to measure up this year no matter what. Even compared to more reasonable standards, though, this is an off year. The field of three year olds was far from strong entering the Triple Crown, and with the exception of Exaggerator and Nyquist none have excelled so far beyond expectations that we can get excited. It just isn't a good year.

Free 2016 Belmont Stakes Picks for Best Props Odds and Head-to-Head Matchups
by Victor Ryan - 6/10/2016

Playing in the traditional pari-mutuel pools isn't the only way to bet the Belmont Stakes. Bovada has released its smorgasbord of Belmont Stakes prop bets that includes an "over/under" on the margin of victory and array of head-to-head matchups. Let's dig in and try and find some winners.

2016 Belmont Stakes Betting Advice: Live Long Shots
by Trevor Whenham - 6/9/2016

The Belmont is a great spot for long shots. Time and again we see horses pay at really solid prices here. It leads to nice win prices and some especially juicy exotics. Even though Exaggerator clearly seems like the class of the field, it's worth our time and effort to look deeper for horses that could pull off an upset at big prices, or at least be a part of the exotics and boost the payouts that will be somewhat deflated by Exaggerator's favoritism and huge public appeal. Here are three Belmont live long shots this year.

Free 2016 Belmont Stakes Picks and Expert Betting Analysis
by Victor Ryan - 6/9/2016

Preakness Stakes winner Exaggerator was installed as the 9/5 morning-line favorite in a field of 13 3-year-olds set for Saturday's Belmont Stakes, the final jewel of horse racing's Triple Crown. The son of Curlin is strictly the horse to beat in the 1 ½-mile "Test of a Champion." But there are no chalk-eating weasels here, so who are the potential upsetters worthy of a wager?

2016 Belmont Stakes Handicapping: the Pace Scenario
by Trevor Whenham - 6/9/2016

The pace scenario is always the most important thing that handicappers need to come to terms with heading into the Belmont Stakes. From a pace scenario the 2016 Belmont is absolutely fascinating. Bizarre and fascinating. We will spend a lot of time between now and post time trying to figure out what will happen, and there is a good chance that what happens will be something entirely different. To try to get a grasp on what could happen, and what it means for the big players in the race, we need to look back at history and what we know about this race.

2016 Belmont Stakes Jockeys: Analysis and Handicapping
by Trevor Whenham - 6/9/2016

The horses in the Belmont may not be the most compelling collection we have seen - though we have been spoiled the last two years with strong Triple Crown contenders. The collection of jockeys this year, though, is as good as you can get for this race. It's like an all-star contest for guys with strong New York ties. As I break the field of riders down, there are six guys who give their mounts significantly better chances to win than they would have under other guys, three guys who I am fine with but don't quite put in the same group as the top six, and four guys who are liabilities - at least in relative terms.

Gettysburg Odds to win the 2016 Belmont Stakes with Expert Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 6/7/2016

The Belmont Stakes field this year just keeps growing and growing. Thankfully, with the addition of the latest prospective entrant we have some much-needed clarity. Any horse can win a race, but the connections for Gettysburg basically have no intention of winning the race with him. He is a classic rabbit - a horse entered just to ensure that there is a strong early pace set in the race.

Seeking the Soul and Forever d'Oro 2016 Belmont Stakes Preview for Bizarre Entries
by Trevor Whenham - 6/5/2016

Dallas Stewart is at it again. The master of entering long shots in Triple Crown races to get a piece has not one but two long shots that he has confirmed he is entering in the Belmont this year. Both are so similar, and frankly so equally bizarre, that we'll just include them in one preview. Frankly, given the careers they have had it's not like there is enough to write a whole preview about either one by himself. Can Stewart recreate his magic?

Brody's Cause Odds to win the 2016 Belmont Stakes with Expert Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 6/3/2016

I have a headache right now, and I blame Brody's Cause for it. Just thinking about this horse makes my head hurt. At his best he is a very strong horse who certainly could contend here. I could even see him winning the Belmont in certain circumstances. Over his short career, though, I have just proven completely incapable of figuring out when he is going to have a big day and when he is going to disappoint. In fact, I have gotten him wrong several times, betting on him when I shouldn't have and backing off when I should have doubled up. He is my four-legged nemesis.

Wild About Deb Odds to win the 2016 Belmont Stakes with Expert Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 6/3/2016

Every so often a horse is entered in a race that just makes you pass and scratch your head. Sometimes it is because the horse is so clearly and massively out of place that it just seems ridiculous. Other times, though, it's just because a horse seems to have some talent but doesn't seem at all ready for the spot he is aimed at.

Horses that Can Win the Belmont Stakes in 2016
by Trevor Whenham - 6/2/2016

The Belmont field seems to be growing every day as more owners take note of the generally unimpressive field and let their dreams of glory grow. At the latest count we could see as many as 13 horses entered, though 10 or 11 seems like a more likely number. As is always the case, though, there are more horses entered than there are horses that can reasonably win the Belmont - though we need to be careful in this race because Da' Tara and others remind us that long shots often wreak havoc here. Things can and likely will change between now and post time.