Belmont Stakes Expert Predictions and Betting Advice

2011 Belmont Stakes Results and Payouts
by T.O. Whenham - 6/11/2011

If was a pretty uninspiring group of horses that entered the starting gate for the first leg of the Triple Crown, so it is only fitting that it was a pretty uninspiring horse that won the final leg. Ruler on Ice becomes the answer to a trivia question - who won the 2011 Belmont Stakes? He had never won a stakes race before, and seemed totally outclassed in this field.

Belmont Stakes Odds and Props Predictions
by T.O. Whenham - 6/10/2011

It’s almost Belmont time. That means it is time to make some Belmont predictions. I am always a bit conflicted when this race rolls around. On one hand the spectacle of this grueling event is always compelling. On the other hand, though, it signals the end of the Triple Crown trail. That means that racing fades back into the background until Breeders’ Cup time.

2011 Belmont Stakes Post Position Analysis
by Robert Ferringo - 6/9/2011

It is a common belief that because of the distance of the Belmont Stakes – at 1.5 miles it is by far the longest of the Triple Crown horse races – that post positions are less important here than they are in the Kentucky Derby or the Preakness. I don’t think that belief is necessarily true – and the distribution of winners over the last 100 years seems to back up my assertion – but I do think that post positions should be handicapped differently here in Belmont than at the Derby or the Preakness.

2011 Belmont Stakes Contenders
by Robert Ferringo - 6/3/2011

Once again, 2011 has given horse racing unique winners for both the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness. With no possibility of the sport’s first Triple Crown since Affirmed in 1978 – were he alive I’m sure he’d pop a bottle of champagne, a la the 1972 Dolphins, every time a potential Triple Crown horse falters – there is very little intrigue or interest surrounding what has become “the other Triple Crown race”.

Belmont Stakes Lineup: Mucho Macho Man Profile
by T.O. Whenham - 6/2/2011

Last race: It’s hard to refer to Mucho Macho Man’s run in the Preakness as anything other than a major disappointment. He got himself into some trouble out of the gate when he brushed Dialed In, and he never seemed to get his head back into it. He fought his rider throughout the race and that led to a less-than-ideal path being taken. He was still in a decent position to strike at the top of the stretch, but he had no kick at all and wound up a lousy sixth as the third choice in the field. Jockey Rajiv Maragh did not have a good day, but even if he had been perfect it didn’t seem like it was going to be a career day for the horse. The only real positive you can take out of the race is that he came back healthy.

Belmont Stakes Field: Nehro Profile
by T.O. Whenham - 6/2/2011

Last race: He was a solid second in the Kentucky Derby, though he was never a threat to the winner. A lot of people are very high on this horse after the Derby, and he will likely be bet down as a member of the Belmont Stakes field. My enthusiasm, however, is more tempered. There is one moment in the Derby that really turned me off this horse. At the top of the stretch Nehro was chasing the leader Shackleford, and was able to catch him and even nose in front for a couple of strides. Shackleford took the challenge and surged again to take over the lead. Instead of fighting, Nehro let Shackleford lead. That kind of move -- almost submissiveness -- is a concern for me.

2011 Belmont Stakes Predictions: Pace Scenarios
by T.O. Whenham - 6/2/2011

Closers like this are often very dependent on a fast pace up front so that the leaders collapse and are easy to chase down. Animal Kingdom isn’t as reliant — in part because he’s not a classic closer type that needs to come from way back like Dialed In. In the Preakness you could argue that he wound up closer to the back than would have been ideal early on, so Velazquez could look to be a bit further forward.

2011 Belmont Stakes Jockeys
by T.O. Whenham - 6/2/2011

The little guys in the saddle are important in every horse race, but they are especially significant in the Belmont Stakes. The race is much longer than the horses have ever run before, and the track is unique thanks to the very long stretch and the wide turns. If a jockey doesn’t have a good day then he can cost his horse the race.

Kentucky Derby Horses in the Belmont Stakes
by T.O. Whenham - 6/2/2011

A lot can change between now and entry time, but as it currently stands the top seven horses from the Kentucky Derby are all aimed towards the Belmont. If that happens it will be a record -- in 1949 and 1950 the top-five finishers from the Derby ran in the Belmont, but we have never seen more of the top Derby finishers than that move forward. The fact, that there are so many horses coming back from the Derby is good news for handicappers because these horses tend to do particularly well in this race. Here’s a look back at the last seven editions of the Belmont to see how the Derby runners have fared:

2011 Belmont Stakes Handicapping Trends
by T.O. Whenham - 6/1/2011

The Belmont is run every year on the same weekend over the same distance at the same track by horses of the same age. Needless to say, then, there are some strong trends that have emerged over the years that can help guide us towards the winners and away from the losers. Here are six of the more interesting Belmont Stakes handicapping trends that could influence the outcome in 2011:

Horses That Can Win the Belmont Stakes
by T.O. Whenham - 5/31/2011

As we get closer to the running of the final leg of the 2011 Triple Crown — a crown that yet again won’t be claimed — the Belmont Stakes field is starting to take shape. It’s not the superstar field for the Belmont Stakes that we have seen some years, but you do have to concede that the class of three year olds has turned out to be at least a little better than it seemed like it would be in April. As I look forward to the Belmont what has me excited is that there are at least eight horses being pointed to the race which, if they had their best day, could wind up winning it. Here’s a quick look at the eight horses that can win the Belmont Stakes:

How to Bet the Belmont Stakes
by T.O. Whenham - 5/31/2011

One of the many things that makes the Triple Crown so great is that each race is so different. That means that handicappers have to adjust as much as the horses do if they want to succeed from race to race. The Kentucky Derby features a ridiculously large field over the longest distance the horses have ever run. Distance and field size are less of a factor in the Preakness, but now the top horses have to run on just two weeks rest -- likely for the first time. In the Belmont horses have to stretch out to a marathon distance, and do it over the longest track in the country.

Belmont Stakes Predictions: Potential Longshot Picks
by T.O. Whenham - 5/31/2011

The public is likely to be focused on a small group of horses this year in the Belmont Stakes. There are the two classic winners, of course -- Animal Kingdom in the Kentucky Derby, and Shackleford from the Preakness. As I write this both are pointing at the Belmont, and both were be legitimate contenders. Then there are a couple other horses that made some noise in the Derby and will likely be back for more -- Nehro and Mucho Macho Man. That’s pretty much it in terms of likely betting targets -- at least in a serious way.

Belmont Stakes Contenders: Animal Kingdom, the Kentucky Derby Winner
by T.O. Whenham - 5/31/2011

Animal Kingdom hasn’t “officially” been pointed at this race as I write this, but he is certainly being pointed toward the race, and at this point it seems like it would require a serious setback for him not to be there.

Preakness Winner Shackleford at the Belmont Stakes Profile
by T.O. Whenham - 5/31/2011

As I write this, Shackleford, the Preakness winner, is in New York at Belmont where he will be training from this point forward. He is being aimed towards the Belmont, though his connections are concerned about the impact it will have on the rest of his season -- likely the Haskell, Travers and Breeders’ Cup if he stays in strong form -- and are holding off on committing to the race until they see him work on the Saturday before the Belmont. My gut feeling is that he will go, so we’ll preview him now.

2011 Belmont Stakes Field: An Early Look
by T.O. Whenham - 5/24/2011

Coming into the Triple Crown this year I was very pessimistic -- it was a class without stars. As it turns out, though, we’ve got two pretty solid races. Neither are all-time classics, but they have been interesting, surprising, and honest, and that’s all you can ask for. We’re also set up to have a pretty decent Belmont Stakes -- almost certainly a better one than I would have predicted three weeks ago. The field for the third leg of the Triple Crown will change as we get closer to June 11, but we already have a good sense of what it could look like. Here’s what we know so far about the 2011 Belmont Stakes field:

2010 Belmont Stakes Betting Predictions
by T.O. Whenham - 6/5/2010

The Belmont is going to be one heck of a horse race. It doesn't have the big name horses that people long for in this race, but from a betting perspective it couldn't be more interesting. Post time is just a day away, so the time has come for me to make some 2010 Belmont Stakes predictions:

2010 Belmont Stakes Betting Advice
by T.O. Whenham - 6/5/2010

You have probably heard or read by now that this isn't a good edition of the Belmont Stakes. Don't believe a word of it. On the surface it has a massive issue - it's the first Belmont since 2006 and just the third since 1970 that features neither the winner of the Kentucky Derby nor the Preakness. There is more than enough to overcome that situation here, though.

2010 Belmont Stakes Jockeys
by T.O. Whenham - 6/2/2010

Jockeys are always a crucial part of any horse race, but their impact is perhaps more significant than ever in the Belmont Stakes. The race is a new distance that is well beyond the comfortable capabilities of most horses, so the jockey has a major task in making sure that the horse is ready for the challenge. We only have to look back to last year to see the negative effect that a bad ride can have on a top horse.

2010 Belmont Stakes Post Positions
by T.O. Whenham - 6/2/2010

The Belmont Stakes is being run for the 142nd time on Saturday, June 5, with post time at 6:30 p.m. EST. The storyline that is getting the most attention in this race is the lack of star power - for the first time since 2006 and only the third time since 1970 neither the Kentucky Derby winner nor the Preakness Stakes champ are in the field.