Belmont Stakes Expert Predictions and Betting Advice

2014 Belmont Stakes Handicapping: the Jockeys
by Trevor Whenham - 6/3/2014

As always, the smallest people are some of the biggest storylines in the Belmont Stakes this year. Here is a look at six Belmont jockeys who will have a big impact on the outcome of the race with profiles to help with 2014 Belmont Stakes handicapping:

2014 Belmont Stakes Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 6/3/2014

We are getting very close to our latest date with destiny — California Chrome’s shot at the Triple Crown. I haven’t yet decided whether I think he is going to win or not — I go back and forth on it a dozen times a day. While I won’t yet make a prediction on that front, there are three 2014 Belmont Stakes predictions that I do feel pretty good about:

2014 Belmont Stakes Pace Scenarios
by Trevor Whenham - 6/3/2014

You might think that the pace in a race as long as the Belmont Stakes doesn’t really matter. After all, there is so much time, and so much room to move, that the race should really be a great equalizer — the best horse should be able to win. The truth, though, is actually surprisingly far from that. In fact, more than the Kentucky Derby or the Preakness, the horses that have done well in this race actually fit into a pretty narrow race profile.

2014 Belmont Stakes Handicapping: Live Long Shots
by Trevor Whenham - 6/3/2014

For a lot of reasons I keep finding myself going back to the 1999 Belmont Stakes when I think about California Chrome and his bid for history this year. I was quite sure Charismatic was going to win the Triple Crown that year, and so were bettors — though Menifee was bet down more as the second choice than any horse is likely to be this year. Things didn’t go as planned, and Charismatic hobbled home third on a broken leg.

Tonalist Odds to Win the 2014 Belmont Stakes
by Trevor Whenham - 5/27/2014

Tonalist is looking to crash the party, beat all the horses with prior Triple Crown experience, and win the Belmont Stakes in just his fifth career start and second stakes outing. He’s an impressive-looking and obviously talented horse, but can Tonalist win the Belmont? More significantly for bettors, what are Tonalist’s odds to win the Belmont, and do they offer any value? Let’s take a look at that, and at four other factors that will help us decide whether this is a horse worth betting on:

2014 Belmont Stakes Handicapping: Fresh Horses
by Trevor Whenham - 5/27/2014

There is a lot of variety to the makeup of the Belmont Stakes field this year — as is typical most years. Two horses — California Chrome and Ride On Curlin — have run in both legs of the Triple Crown already. Kid Cruz and Social Inclusion weren’t in the Derby, but they did contest the Preakness and are looking to come back again on reasonably short rest. Then there are seven horses who are coming off a long rest — three who haven’t raced since running in the Derby and four who are poised to make their Triple Crown debut.

Commissioner Odds to Win the 2014 Belmont Stakes
by Trevor Whenham - 5/27/2014

Joining the solid list of horses who have raced in one or both of the previous Triple Crown races are two fresh invaders from the Peter Pan Stakes, which was held on May 10 at Belmont Park. The winner of that race, Tonalist, will be one of the betting favorites in the Belmont, and the horse that many seem to think can upset California Chrome. Second-place finisher Commissioner is also here, but he comes with far less attention or respect.

Kentucky Derby Horses in the 2014 Belmont Stakes
by Trevor Whenham - 5/27/2014

When looking back at the last two decades of history in the Belmont Stakes, one trend stands out above all others — 14 of the last 20 winners also ran in the Kentucky Derby. That’s a powerful trend, and there are at least two good reasons that can help to explain it. First, the best three-year-olds are pointed at the Derby, so on average it makes sense that those horses are going to be stronger five weeks later as well. Second, there is no better way to prepare for the difficult task of racing a mile and a half than previously running a mile and a quarter, and the Derby is the only opportunity for three year olds to run that far before the Belmont.

Wicked Strong Odds to win the 2014 Belmont Stakes
by Trevor Whenham - 5/27/2014

Wicked Strong came from seemingly nowhere to win the Wood Memorial, and with that he became a star on the Triple Crown trail. He was the second choice to win the Kentucky Derby, but he ran a troubled fourth. The somewhat disappointing result has lowered expectations for this horse here in the Belmont, though he is still seen as a serious contender according to the odds. So, can Wicked Strong win the Belmont? And, more importantly for bettors, what are Wicked Strong’s odds to win the Belmont?

Horses That Can Win the 2014 Belmont Stakes
by Trevor Whenham - 5/27/2014

There are currently 11 horses being pointed to the Belmont — a cast that has already gone through a lot of changes. While California Chrome is obviously the star, what’s interesting is that it isn’t particularly difficult to make an argument for at least eight of the 11 to win the race. The only three I don’t really believe in are Kid Cruz, Matterhorn and Matuszak. The other eight, though, are all horses that can win the Belmont — if everything goes precisely their way on the day.

Commanding Curve Odds to win the 2014 Belmont Stakes
by Trevor Whenham - 5/26/2014

When a strong favorite wins the Kentucky Derby, you don’t expect the payoffs for the exotics to be that impressive. Thanks to long shot Commanding Curve, however, they were actually pretty solid this year despite the predictable win by California Chrome. Commanding Curve came from the clouds — both in the race when he came from way back, and in terms of his odds of nearly 38/1 — to finish second in impressive fashion.

Ride On Curlin Odds to win the 2014 Belmont Stakes
by Trevor Whenham - 5/26/2014

California Chrome is going to get the bulk of the attention — both from the media and bettors — heading into the Belmont Stakes. It’s deserving and to be expected. For bettors who aren’t interested in bets at even money or worse, though, the search is on for horses that can give the champ a test and potentially deliver some value.

California Chrome Odds to Win the 2014 Belmont Stakes
by Trevor Whenham - 5/26/2014

We are inching closer and closer to the Belmont Stakes. Some years the average sports fan barely even notices. When there is a Triple Crown on the line like this year, though, the sports world pays attention, and the three weeks between the Preakness and the Belmont seem to pass almost impossibly slowly.

2014 Belmont Stakes Handicapping: Distance Factors
by Trevor Whenham - 5/22/2014

The biggest storyline for handicappers to consider every year heading into the Belmont Stakes is the distance. One and a half miles might not seem like much — and to casual fans it probably doesn’t seem much different than the mile distance that is so common in horse racing. For horses, though, the Belmont distance is extremely long. It’s almost certainly the longest distance they will ever run, and it’s at least a quarter mile further than they have ever run before.

2014 Belmont Stakes Betting Trends and Handicapping
by Trevor Whenham - 5/22/2014

For the first time since 2008 we head into the Belmont Stakes on the verge of a potential Triple Crown. When trying to find a winner and a road to profit betting on the race, these Belmont trends will help to point you in the right direction:

How to Bet the Belmont Stakes in 2014
by Trevor Whenham - 5/21/2014

Betting the Belmont Stakes is often the easiest challenge of the three Triple Crown races — though that doesn’t always mean it is easy. This year it is going to be far, far from easy. First we have to decide whether California Chrome is good enough to do what 11 horses have failed to do since the last Triple Crown winner in 1978 and win his third race in five weeks. Then we have to figure out how we are going to deal with the microscopic odds we’ll face betting on him.

Can California Chrome win the Triple Crown? Odds and Betting Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 5/21/2014

Can California Chrome win the Triple Crown? Absolutely. He has been the best horse by a healthy margin in two Triple crown races already, and he faces a solid but manageable likely field in the third. Why can’t he win? I am far from one of those people who believe that we will never see another Triple Crown winner. In fact, given how close we have come before with horses like Real Quiet, Silver Charm and Smarty Jones, I think we are going to see another run of Triple Crowns at some point like we did when the title was claimed in 1973 by Secretariat, and then again in 1977 and 1978 — and almost again in 1979.

2014 Belmont Stakes Field: Early Look and Handicapping
by Trevor Whenham - 5/21/2014

The prospect of a Triple Crown for California Chrome certainly hasn’t scared away contenders for the Belmont Stakes. As many as 11 horses are currently aiming for the race, and more could emerge as we get closer to the big day. Here’s how the field is shaping up in the early days of the build up to the race:

2013 Belmont Stakes Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 6/6/2013

This is a very interesting edition of the Belmont Stakes. The field is large, and there are a ridiculous number of Derby entrants back for this race. There isn’t a clear standout horse, but cases can be made for several. It is a true and perplexing handicapping puzzle. I haven’t settled on my winner yet, but there are four 2013 Belmont Stakes predictions that I am willing to make and stand behind:

2013 Kentucky Derby Horses in the Belmont Stakes
by Trevor Whenham - 6/4/2013

We are likely to see a surprisingly large field for the Belmont Stakes this year — as I write there are 14 horses likely to be entered. Even more remarkable, though, is that 10 of the 19 horses that were entered in the Kentucky Derby this year are likely to be back for another shot at Triple Crown glory in the Belmont.