by Chris, the Impaler - 01/17/2006
Futures odds have been set for the men's and women's championship on the first stop of 2006 Grand Slam tennis season as the action gets underway at Rod Laver Arena in Melbourne, Australia from Jan. 16-29.
Having played in only a pair of tune-up tournaments, former No. 1 and three time Australian Open Champion Martina Hingis returns to Grand Slam play at the 2006 Australian Open ending her three year retirement, but will have to face the toughest women's draw in years if she hopes to make it through the early rounds let alone a return to the finals.
While it is the youngest of the four "Grand Slams", the Australian Open has become an increasingly more popular sport to wager and to watch. Whether you like to place a quid on a future wager or a deener on one of the many exciting early round matches, Australian Open tennis offers both the casual and the serious gambler a variety of ways to increase their sports investment bankroll.
The Grand Slam is a popular sports destination as well. Last year, the Australian Open enjoyed record attendance for the event. More than half a million tennis fans came to Melbourne Park and gobbled up 12,600 BBQ sausages, 11,714 Australian meat pies and washed them down with 111,198 mugs of espresso while watching some fabulous tennis. Indeed, the Australian Open is known as a tennis fan's paradise featuring some of tennis' hottest weather, great outfits, and memorable matches. One has to look only at last year's finals and Serena William's emotional come from behind victory over Maria Sharapova and Safin's improbable 9-7 fifth set victory over Roger Federer.
When capping Australian Open tennis take into account the court surface as much as you would at say Rolland Garros or at Wimbledon. When you think of Australian Open think Rebound Ace. The courts down under are tennis players' least favorite surface. In fact many players have blamed Rebound Ace for the high number of injuries and upsets in the early rounds at the Australian Open. Tournament officials maintain that the court's surface should not be blamed for poor performance or conditioning. Rebound Ace's rubber surface puts less stress on the players and the ball bounces higher on a forehand topspin shot. The main drawback is that with the hot summer temperature the surface tends to become sticky which slows ball speed. In either case, you should be aware of the fact that in the early rounds upset potential abounds.
Here's a look at my take on who will win in Melbourne on the Rebound Ace.
Men's Australian Open Championship
Australian Rod Laver is the only man to win four slams in a calendar year. Count on Swiss cannon Roger Federer to challenge Laver's record this year as he looks to build on last year's incredible 81-4 singles record. Federer is the 2/5 favorite to win the 2006 Australian Open Men's Championship. The next closest odds players are Leyton Hewitt, Andy Roddick and David Nalbandian all set at 8/1. Gamblers looking for a toss of the dice play can bet on the field (any player who is not listed with Australian Open odds) at 12/1. While a field bet is not advisable since you are betting against Roger Federer, I noticed that Argentine Ace No. 6 seed Guillermo Coria is included in the field, and if you haven't seen him play you are in for a treat.
As is usual these days in the men's draw, Roger Federer is seeded No.1, and there is everybody else. We've made quite a good living betting on Federer and he is once again the easy favorite at 5/2. Federer's main rival is a clay court specialist, Spaniard Rafael Nadal, who holds a 2-1 career lead over Federer. But he has withdrawn from competition this year.
In fact, Federer is so far ahead of the competition. All he did in 2005 was win Wimbledon and the U.S. Open, plus nine other tournaments on the way to an 81-4 record (sorry if I repeat this statistic but it is so incredible that even as it appears twice it is hard to comprehend that level of professionalism). Federer's last year four loses came to the hands of defending Aussie champion Marat Safin (withdrawn from this year's competition), Richard Gasquet at 30/1, David Nalbandian at 8/1, and Rafael Nadal (withdrawn from this year's competition).
Despite Federer's apparent stranglehold on the Men's tennis tour, a few other players are worth a look, and for the gutsy, perhaps a few quid as well. No. 2 seed Andy Roddick at 8/1 is worth a look as he will try to avoid another early exit in a slam; in the US Open in September he lost on his 23rd birthday in the first round to Giles Muller from Luxembourg. The loss helped Roddick focus during the off-season and if the seeds hold up through the two weeks competition, Roddick will meet Federer in the finals. Unfortunately for Roddick he has never beaten Federer in a Grand Slam final.
There are two other players I am keeping my eyes on in this tourney. I look for breakout play from Great Britain's Andy Murray who has played very well and is looking to take his tennis to the next level. He has a possible second round match with No. 3 seed Lleyton Hewitt, but if he can some how beat the underperforming Aussie, then I wouldn't be surprised to see him make a push into the round of sixteen and perhaps beyond.
Another player who has captured our attention over the past year is last year's US Open semi-finalist American Robby Ginepri. Unfortunately, Ginepri is subject to mental lapses and can quickly lose control of a match only a set before it seemed that he had well in hand. If Ginepri can maintain focus and manage to beat Roddick in the bottom half of the draw he'll have two chances to beat Federer in the finals - slim to none.
Pick! Roger Federer 2/5
Buffered by Long Odds Pick! Field - Guillermo Coria 12/1
Women's Australian Open Championship
Despite another leg injury that almost forced Belgium's Kim Clijsters to withdraw from this year's Australian Open, Clijsters is the short odds 2/1 favorite to win according to Australian Open odds. Clijsters finished off the 2005 season with a bang, winning the U.S. Open while claiming the No. 2 spot in the rankings behind Lindsay Davenport, who is ranked No.1 for the Australian Open but listed at 4/1. Clijsters made the finals of last year's Open as well as the semis in each of the previous two years. However, keep in mind that Clijsters's hip is still bothering her and it will take a Herculean effort for her to play under the unforgiving Australian summer sun with this injury.
Clijsters is closely followed by countrywoman Henin-Hardenne at 7/2 and Russian hottie Maria Sharapova at 6/1. The winner on the Ladies side will most likely come from one of these women this year. I don't see the best tennis player to never win a major, Amelie Mauresmo at 12/1 or downward spiraling Anna Myskina at 35/1 threatening the book's pockets. In fact I don't see the perpetually wounded Williams sisters doing much this year either. If sisters aren't careful the game they once owned could pass them by. I would not advise a play on either Venus at 15/1 or her sister, last year's winner, Serena Williams, at 10/1 to win her third Open in four years.
The top half of the draw has six grand slam winners, but perhaps the most intriguing player is in the bottom half of the draw, unseeded Martina Hingis in her comeback attempt. Hingis retired three years ago due to assorted foot injuries. Hingis won three Australian Opens in a row from 1997-1999 and then lost in the finals from 2000-02.
However, before you drool looking at her 25/1 odds, the "Swiss Miss" will have to play beyond anyone's expectations for that long odds wager to cash. While she beat Vento-Kabachi and No. 35 Klara Koukalova in straight sets at the Australian Women's Hard courts in Gold Coast, Australia, Hingis went on to drop straight sets to Justine Henin-Hardenne who is deceptively seeded at No. 8. Moreover, Hingis' faces a stiff test against No. 20 Vera Zvonareva and then will have to get past 2005 French Open winner (and Australian Open winner in 1995) No. 5 Mary Pierce. Barring injury I wouldn't be surprised to see Hingis do well later on in the year, but if she does not do well in Melbourne casual followers of women's tennis won't notice.
Pick! Maria Sharapova at 6/1
Buffered by Long Odds Pick! Mary Pierce 12/1
Listed below are the future odds to win the Men's and Women's Australian Open Championship.
Men's Australian Open Odds to Win
R Federer 2/5
R Nadal Withdrew prior to tournament.
L Hewitt 8/1
A Roddick 8/1
D Nalbandian 8/1
M Safin Withdrew prior to tournament.
T Ljubicic 12/1
R Gasquet 20/1
J Blake 40/1
T Berdych 35/1
R Ginepri 75/1
N Davydenko 35/1
A Murray 100/1
F Gonzalez 40/1
T Johansson 75/1
J Johansson 60/1
JC Ferrero FLD
G Coria FLD
G Monfils 75/1
M Ancic 100/1
R Stepanek FLD
T Henman FLD
S Grosjean 100/1
N Kiefer 75/1
T Haas 50/1
T Dent 75/1
F Lopez FLD
D Hrbaty 60/1
C Moya 75/1
T Robredo FLD
G Gaudio FLD
M Philippoussis FLD
M Baghdatis FLD
F Verdasco FLD
D Ferrer FLD
M Youzhny FLD
P Srichaphan FLD
N Djkovic FLD
I Karlovic FLD
A Agassi Withdrew prior to tournament.
Field 12/1
Women's Australian Open Odds to Win
K Clijsters 2/1
M Sharapova 6/1
J Henin Hardenne 7/2
L Davenport 4/1
A Mauresmo 12/1
S Williams 10/1
M Pierce 12/1
V Williams 15/1
N Vaidisova 20/1
E Dementieva 20/1
M Hingis 25/1
A Myskina 35/1
P Schnyder 35/1
A Ivonovic 25/1
N Petrova 60/1
J Jankovic FLD
T Golovin FLD
S Kuznetsova 30/1
D Hantuchova FLD
D Safina 100/1
N Dechy FLD
A Groenfeld 75/1
M Krajicek FLD
S Mirza 100/1
Field 15/1
We'll return Down Under next week as we break down the match-ups for Championship weekend. Let me know what you think at impaler@docsports.com.
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