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2024 Arizona Diamondbacks Predictions with World Series Odds and Season Win Total Picks

by Ryan Cobbett - 3/26/2024

Arizona Diamondbacks predictions Merrill Kelly

Summary of Last Season

Last season was historic for the Arizona Diamondbacks, as they stormed through the playoffs, after barely getting in, and made it all the way to the World Series, before ultimately falling to the Texas Rangers. After finishing 84-78 in the regular season, Arizona secured the last wild card spot by just one game. Their record was five games better than the expected 79-83 record. Nonetheless, they defined that anything could happen in the playoffs.

Corbin Carroll stormed onto the scene last season and went on to lead this lineup to new heights that it didn’t expect to reach. His 5.4 WAR led the team, with Ketel Marte (4.9), Gabriel Moreno (4.3), Christian Walker (3.8), and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (3.0) rounding out the top five WARs. Walker would club a team leading 33 homeruns and tallied 103 RBIs. Carroll led the Diamondbacks in stolen bases with 54, while Jake McCarthy’s 26 steals ranked second on the team. Marte, Carroll, and Gurriel Jr. also added 24 or more homeruns, with all three contributing 75 or more RBIs. The bottom half of the order was problematic and would result in an average showing for the season. Arizona ranked 14th in runs, 22nd in homeruns, and 17th in OPS.

Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly formed a solid duo atop the Arizona rotation, with the two combining to post an 8.3 WAR. Kelly led the team with a 3.29 ERA, while Gallen led in innings pitched with 210, 220 strikeouts, and 20 quality starts. Ryne Nelson was the only other Arizona pitcher to record more than 100 innings, though he had an abysmal 5.31 ERA last season. The bullpen was also a big question mark, with eight different players recording a save. Kevin Ginkel deserves some recognition, as he is the only Arizona player to post a sub 3.00 ERA. The Diamondbacks ranked 20th in ERA and 19th in WHIP as a team.

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Arizona Diamondbacks Key Additions/Losses

Evan Longoria, Mark Melancon, Tommy Pham, and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. all became free agents at the end of the season. However, that was all the production that departed, and the Diamondbacks kept their core together.

In addition to their core, they added third baseman Eugenio Suarez in a deal with Seattle. They followed that trade up by signing former Detroit Tiger Eduardo Rodriguez to a four-year deal and then re-signed Gurriel Jr. The club also brought in Joc Pederson, who will now start a stint with his third NL West team, while also adding outfielder Randall Grichuk, giving them a lot of depth in the grass.

Arizona Diamondbacks Prospect Outlook

Arizona’s top prospect, Jordan Lawlar, is going to get his chance at some point this season but is going to start the year in AAA. Joining the top shortstop is fellow field general Blaze Alexander (21st), and pitcher Bryce Jarvis (30th) will start the season with the Diamondbacks. Pitchers Yu-Min Lin (4th), Cristian Mena (11th), Slade Cecconi (18th), Andrew Saalfrank (26th), Justin Martinez (27th), and Blake Watson (28th) will all provide pitching depth for the big-league club.

Arizona Diamondbacks X-Factors

Pitching Rotation- During the regular season, the bottom three starters did not do much to contribute to the club’s success. Gallen and Kelly will be a solid duo once again, while Brandon Pfaadt will give the rotation a big boost if he can produce like he did in the postseason.

Corbin Carroll- After a dominating season last year, he will need to put up similar numbers if they want to compete with the Dodgers and Padres in the division. He does a lot for this lineup by being active on the basepath and setting up Marte and Walker to knock him in. Look for Carroll to be in the MVP conversation this season.

Newbies- Joc Pederson and Eugenio Suarez are big time additions for this top-heavy lineup from a season ago.

Arizona Diamondbacks Expectations

Unfortunately for Arizona, after their magical run to the World Series, the Dodgers and Padres both took huge strides in improving their team. Arizona should be expected to compete for a wild card spot this season after their improvements this offseason, but a division title seems to be too unreasonable for Arizona. Their farm system is full of talent, and they could flip some of their prospects to strengthen the pitching staff. Look for the Diamondbacks to be active at the deadline and even potentially paying a higher price in order to keep the Dodgers, Braves, Padres, or Phillies from getting any better.

Arizona Diamondbacks Notable Odds:

World Series Champions- +4000

Pennant Winners- +1800

Division Winners- +1100

NL MVP- Corbin Carroll- +2000

NL Cy Young- Zac Gallen- +1400

Arizona Diamondbacks Predictions

This is the second-best team in the NL West if the top half of their lineup can produce like it did last season. Pederson and Suarez are huge boosts for the lineup, while Pfaadt will add a good number of wins to the rotation. Their projected win total sits at 83.5, which seems highly favorable, not considering the division. However, they improved, and this team could win 90 games, especially if they add at the deadline. The pieces are in place for another deep postseason run if things go their way.

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