Soccer Betting and Handicapping Articles

World Cup Handicapping: Judging the Quarterfinalists
by Trevor Whenham - 7/3/2014

As we await the start of the quarterfinals in the World Cup it is a good time to evaluate the eight remaining teams. What do they face going forward? What are their strengths and weaknesses? Most importantly, is there any value in betting on them to win the tournament?:

World Cup Betting: Handicapping the Regions
by Trevor Whenham - 7/3/2014

With time between the Round of 16 and the quarterfinals, this is a good time to look at how the regions have performed in the tournament so far. Each team is obviously separate from their region, but by studying the strength of the regions we can more effectively understand how well a team is performing based to the expectations we had for them coming into the tournament. In short, then, understanding how regions have performed can help us to predict how the team might perform going forward. Without further ado, and in alphabetical order:

Odds to Win the World Cup Update with Picks and Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 7/2/2014

We get a breather from all the World Cup action as we await the start of the quarterfinals on July 4. It’s a good time, then, to look for value in the World Cup futures as they sit now with some picks and predictions for the final eight teams (odds for World Cup winner are from Bovada):

World Cup Betting Advice: Group Stage to Elimination Round Differences
by Trevor Whenham - 6/24/2014

As we move into a whole new phase at the World Cup — out of the round robin and into the elimination rounds — things change in significant ways for bettors. Those bettors who understand the differences, and the opportunities they can present, are in a much better position to thrive than those who treat all World Cup games essentially the same regardless of when they are played. Here are five of the most significant differences:

World Cup Handicapping: Third Game Differences
by Trevor Whenham - 6/24/2014

When it comes to betting on the World Cup, most people know that there is a big difference between betting on round robin games and those in the round of 16 and beyond. From a betting perspective, though, there are just as significant differences between the first two games of the round robin and the third and final game. By understanding those differences, bettors can avoid costly mistakes, and they can often open up opportunities for real value. Here are four of the biggest differences:

World Cup Elimination Round Betting Trends
by Trevor Whenham - 6/24/2014

As we get ready for the elimination games at the World Cup, it’s a good time to look at some trends that have emerged over the course of the last three World Cups. (Note — I am ignoring the third-place game in all of these trends because I don’t trust the motivation of teams in that game coming off a disappointment in the semifinals).

World Cup Betting Trends
by Trevor Whenham - 6/20/2014

With the win by Colombia over Ivory Coast, we have now seen 21 World Cup games, so we are officially a third of the way through the action (there are technically 64 games, but the third-place game is stupid and pointless and I don’t count it). This is a good time, then, to look at what has happened so far and to examine how it compares to what happened in 2010 and 2006. Are there trends that stand out? Or is this just a typical World Cup? Let’s take a look:

2014 World Cup Handicapping: Surprises and Disappointments
by Trevor Whenham - 6/19/2014

We are, as I write this, 20 games into the World Cup. We certainly can’t complain that it hasn’t been entertaining. There have been great games, amazing performances, and more than a couple of truly shocking results. There has also been some money to be made for bettors — and that is never a bad thing. As we sit almost a third of the way through games it’s a good time to look at the biggest betting surprises and disappointments so far and what they could mean going forward:

2014 World Cup Betting Props: Scoring Odds
by Trevor Whenham - 6/11/2014

Total tournament goals — “over/under” 154.5: On the surface the under would be the clear play here. In 2010 there were a total of 145 goals scored, and that was just two fewer than the 147 in 2006. The one thing that can elevate the totals, though, are a large number of lopsided blowouts in the opening round. So, are there enough of those to justify an over bet? In 2006 there were seven games decided by a margin of three goals or more in the opening round. There were five in 2010.

2014 World Cup Betting: Most Interesting First-Round Games
by Trevor Whenham - 6/11/2014

As we sit here on the eve of the great spectacle that is the World Cup, here are the five games in the first eight days of the first round action that have me most excited from a betting perspective along with some reasoning for my excitement:

2014 World Cup Betting Picks for MVP and Golden Ball Winner Props Odds
by Trevor Whenham - 6/11/2014

Sportsbook.ag offers an impressive list of potential World Cup MVPs — the Golden Ball — to bet on. In the dozens of names you can bet on are obviously very many players who can be ruled out almost immediately and others that are more intriguing. Before we get into looking at individual players, though, let’s look back at the last 10 World Cups to see what trends emerge amongst the winners of this award:

2014 World Cup Handicapping: Interesting Parlay Bets for Group Winners
by Trevor Whenham - 6/11/2014

Bovada has made betting on parlays for group winners in the World Cup very easy. They have offered a wide range of three-, five-, seven- and even eight-team parlays to choose from. The obvious concerns about parlays also apply here. Parlays are typically not the best way to find value because the odds of the parlay are typically far worse than they should be given the odds of the individual events involved.

2014 World Cup Betting 101: Wagering on Soccer Based on the Odds
by George Monroy - 6/10/2014

When it comes to soccer, there is a huge elephant in the room: the fact that most people don’t know anything about the sport. With the World Cup set to begin in a few days with a June 12 opening matchup between Brazil and Croatia, soccer fever will once again hit America. For bettors, that means there will be an event to help bridge the gap between the end of basketball season and the beginning of the football year.

2014 World Cup Betting: Team USA Prop Odds and Picks
by George Monroy - 6/6/2014

The World Cup may be the biggest betting event in all of sports—with all due respect to the Super Bowl—and beginning June 12 bettors will have their fill of wall-to-wall sports gambling actions for a over a month. Soccer has never been something American’s dominate—even team USA coach Jurgen Klinsmann recently said his squad has no chance of winning this year’s cup—but that unfortunate truth should not stop bettors from wagering on the event and looking for spots to make a profit over the summer.

World Cup Betting Props: Which Teams Will Advance
by Trevor Whenham - 6/3/2014

As we anxiously await the start of the World Cup — a tournament that seems like it will never get here — all we can do is look at all the prop bets that emerge to see if there is any value to be had. More props are emerging all of the time, and many of them are very interesting. One of the more interesting sets of props available is the ability to bet on whether each of the 32 teams is going to advance out of their groups and into the elimination rounds. It’s a straight “yes” or “no,” but it provides some interesting opportunities (odds are from Bovada):

2014 World Cup Predictions: Exacta Betting Props for Groups
by Trevor Whenham - 6/3/2014

I love betting on the World Cup. I love betting on horse races. The opportunity, then, to combine the two in a very interesting set of props is an opportunity I can’t pass on. At Bovada you can bet on not just which team will win each group but also which two teams will advance and which order they will finish in. In other words, it’s an exacta bet just like in a horse race. You have a couple of advantages over a typical racing exacta, though, that makes this bet more attractive — the field is limited to just four teams, and we know the payoff in advance, so the value is easier to spot.

2014 World Cup Props Handicapping: Highest- and Lowest-Scoring Teams
by Trevor Whenham - 6/3/2014

As the World Cup draws near, it’s time to look at all the prop bets that are available — at least partly as a way to stop us from counting the seconds until the long-awaited tournament finally starts. One pair of props that is really interesting is trying to pick which teams will be the highest- and lowest-scoring in the tournament. Neither prop is a good spot to really gamble and look away from the favorites, but looking at the contenders is an interesting experience. Here’s a look at both (odds are from Bovada):

World Cup Handicapping: Concerns over the Favorites
by Trevor Whenham - 5/22/2014

There are some very good teams among the favorites at the World Cup this year. None of the teams are without flaws or reasons for concern, though. Here is the biggest reason for concern for each of the seven favorites in the tournament (odds are from Sportsbook.ag):

World Cup Betting Mistakes to Avoid
by Trevor Whenham - 5/22/2014

The World Cup presents a great opportunity for bettors. A month of action. Fair lines. Widely-available props. Plenty of value to be found if you know where to look for it. When you are betting on the tournament, though, it can be easy to make mistakes if you aren’t being diligent. Those mistakes can be costly, and in a relatively short tournament it only takes a few mistakes to turn a winning event into a loser for a bettor.

World Cup Handicapping: Teams That Have Struggled in Preps
by Trevor Whenham - 5/19/2014

When handicapping the World Cup, you have to overcome a lack of true information about the current form of the teams before the tournament starts. They have played together few times in the months before the tournament, and they haven’t played a truly meaningful game since the rosters were finalized. You can’t read too much into how teams have played in the six months or so before the tournament, but you also can’t completely overlook the recent form of the teams, or the momentum they bring into the tournament.