NFL Handicapping Articles

NFL Betting Odds: Week 12 Line Movements & Last-Minute News
by Alan Matthews - 11/24/2017

Some in the NFL were surprised that the Denver Broncos hired Vance Joseph as their head coach this past season. After all, the guy had been a coordinator for just one season, leading the Miami Dolphins defense in 2016. And it's not like that defense was all that great. Miami ranked 29th in yards allowed and 18th in points. The Broncos already had two young quarterbacks on their roster in Trevor Siemian and Paxton Lynch, so the thinking was that boss and Hall of Famer John Elway, a fair QB in his day, would hire an offensive mind.

NFL Expert Picks Against the Spread: Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs
by Alan Matthews - 11/22/2017

So, explain to me how contracts for head coaches in the NFL are guaranteed but those belonging to the guys who go out and risk their immediate and long-term health on the field are not? Well, I know why: the players' union in the NFL isn't nearly as strong as the ones in MLB or the NBA. But that's a story for another day.

Expert NFL Handicapping: Six Reasons the New Orleans Saints are a Super Bowl Contender
by Trevor Whenham - 11/22/2017

I'll admit that I was wrong about the New Orleans Saints this year. That's not particularly shocking - being wrong a lot is a part of this job whether you like it or not. But I really thought that the Saints would be much like they have been for a few years now - an exciting team that isn't very good at winning games because their high-potency offense isn't matched with a defense of any sort.

NFL Expert Picks Against the Spread: Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions
by Alan Matthews - 11/21/2017

It's arguably the greatest day of the year on Thursday because we Americans get to stuff our faces full of turkey and all the fixins while watching three NFL games in between naps. There's no question that this Thanksgiving the best game if the first one as Minnesota visits Detroit. The middle matchup between the Chargers and Cowboys would be interesting if Ezekiel Elliott was active, but Dallas looks lost without the suspended 2016 rushing king. In 2006, the NFL added a night game to the holiday to pimp the NFL Network as it used to be showed only on that channel. This year's Giants-Redskins matchup is a bore and on NBC.

Thanksgiving NFL Betting: Odds and Analysis for All Three Games
by Trevor Whenham - 11/21/2017

This is the week every year when I have Thanksgiving envy. As a Canadian I get to celebrate Thanksgiving, but ours comes on a Monday in October. It's not the major holiday that the American version is, and we don't get a smorgasbord of football or a shopping frenzy or anything. Don't get me wrong, I love our Thanksgiving - but it may be the one Canadian thing that is second-best. Of course, I don't have to be an American to eat too much and watch football all day on Thursday. Let's look at each of the three games and what they have to offer us:

Expert NFL Handicapping: Teams in Need of QB Change
by Trevor Whenham - 11/21/2017

We are at the time in the NFL season when it has become very clear which teams are not happy with their quarterback situations. You can see the changes coming a mile off right now. So too can the players on the teams, and that can have a big impact on how they finish out the seasons - and not typically a positive impact. There are at least seven teams - and likely more than that - that are going to be looking to shake up their quarterback rooms significantly next year. Here's a look at them:

NFL Betting Predictions: Week 12 Opening Line Report and Picks
by Alan Matthews - 11/20/2017

Perhaps I'm just paying closer attention, but I truly can't remember an NFL season with so many crazy bad beats - and my condolences if you parlayed the Miami Dolphins at +7 on a 6-point teaser along with the "under" 44 for Sunday's game against visiting Tampa Bay in one postponed from Week 1 due to Hurricane Irma.

NFL Betting Odds: Week 11 Line Movements & Last-Minute News
by Alan Matthews - 11/17/2017

The Buffalo Bills clearly don't know what they want to be in 2017. The team hired former Carolina Panthers defensive coordinator Sean McDermott as the head coach this offseason and essentially gave him full control over the roster. McDermott started cleaning house almost immediately, with his biggest moves in August when he traded No. 1 receiver Sammy Watkins to the Rams and top cornerback Ronald Darby to the Eagles. OK, fine, the Bills were in a rebuilding mode and loading up on draft picks.

NFL Expert Picks Against the Spread: Los Angeles Rams at Minnesota Vikings
by Alan Matthews - 11/15/2017

Yes, Sunday night's Eagles at Cowboys game is going to do mega-ratings and betting handle at the various sportsbooks. But Philadelphia has other huge games coming up with trips to Seattle, the LA Rams and a Week 17 matchup against Dallas that probably will become that week's Sunday night game too unless the Cowboys collapse. So, we will have plenty of time to address the Eagles the rest of the way (I do like them to cover the 3 points this week).

NFL Expert Picks Against the Spread: Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers
by Alan Matthews - 11/14/2017

Before we get to previewing this Thursday's Titans-Steelers matchup in Pittsburgh, I feel almost obligated to recap what a bad beat Cardinals backers got in last Thursday's game vs. Seattle. I didn't think Arizona would win but recommended taking the 6 points as well as the under 40. Final score: Seahawks 22, Cardinals 16. A push on the spread is better than a loss, but it would have been a sweep had Arizona kicker Phil Dawson not had his PAT try after a last-second garbage TD blocked.

NFL Betting Predictions: Week 11 Opening Line Report and Picks
by Alan Matthews - 11/13/2017

What was arguably the second-biggest story of Week 10? I think it's how the one-win Giants went out to winless San Francisco and laid a total egg in a 31-21 loss. I watched much of that game and it was pretty evident a few times that some Giants players were loafing. ESPN reported last week from a couple of anonymous players that McAdoo had lost the locker room. It sure looked like that was the case.

NFL Betting Odds: Week 10 Line Movements & Last-Minute News
by Alan Matthews - 11/10/2017

If I had to make a list of the Top 10 coaches in the NFL entering this season with the most job security and not counting first-year guys, you probably start said list with New England's Bill Belichick, Seattle's Pete Carroll, Pittsburgh's Mike Tomlin and Kansas City's Andy Reid. I'm not going to do a full Top 10 but I would have included Tampa Bay's Dirk Koetter somewhere near after those five guys.

Jimmy Garoppolo Trade Impact for San Francisco 49ers and New England Patriots
by Trevor Whenham - 11/10/2017

After all the talk over the last year or two, we finally have had a Jimmy Garoppolo trade. Two things came to mind. First, in a league so devoid of passable QB talent right now it seems like the Niners got a serious bargain for a well-groomed guy with some playing experience and the world's best mentor. You aren't going to pick a guy with that upside and relatively low risk in the second round very often, so San Francisco has to be happy.

Deshaun Watson Injury Impact on Houston Texans
by Trevor Whenham - 11/10/2017

The frustrating but relentless plotline of this NFL season has been the injuries to key players and stars. Few have been more frustrating - at least to me - than the loss of Deshaun Watson. He showed at Clemson that he knows all about winning, and he had transferred that to the NFL with impressive ease. He was one of the most fun things to watch in a season that has lacked for fun things in general, and now he's gone. It wouldn't be quite as frustrating if the Texans had a strong backup to step up and replace him, but these are certainly not the Vikings and their positive QB intrigue.

NFL Expert Picks Against the Spread: New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers
by Alan Matthews - 11/8/2017

In this writer's humble opinion, the games matching the marquee teams each week aren't always the most interesting ones. For example, the two best matchups on paper this week if you go by the caliber of the franchises would be Patriots at Broncos and Cowboys at Falcons. But it gets tiring previewing New England and Dallas every other week - and there will be plenty of time for that going forward, including likely the playoffs.

NFL Expert Picks Against the Spread: Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals
by Alan Matthews - 11/7/2017

OK, I guess I have to officially believe in the Los Angeles Rams now, so that makes this Thursday's game pretty big between the Seahawks and Cardinals as they chase the first-place Rams in the NFC West. L.A. (6-2) already owns a head-to-head win over the Cardinals and visits them on Dec. 3. The Seahawks hold a head-to-head over the Rams and host them on Dec. 17. Both Los Angeles and Seattle are -110 at BetOnline to win the division with the Cardinals at +2500.

NFL Betting Predictions: Week 10 Opening Line Report and Picks
by Alan Matthews - 11/6/2017

OK, I've had the weekend to process the Deshaun Watson injury. It's nothing short of a catastrophic loss for Houston - sadly less than 24 hours after the Astros won their first-ever World Series title and less than 24 before the city's parade on Friday - similar to that suffered by the Packers when Aaron Rodgers went down. Yes, I compared Watson to Rodgers as the rookie had been that good.

NFL Betting Odds: Week 9 Line Movements & Last-Minute News
by Alan Matthews - 11/3/2017

Sometimes I struggle to come up with a lead topic on these Friday stories if there hasn't been a major injury, line move, etc. This week? I could write five of these stories easy. It was perhaps the newsiest week I can ever remember.

NFL Betting Advice: Niners or Browns for Winless Season?
by Trevor Whenham - 11/2/2017

Ten-to-one. That's the price you could get most recently from Bovada if you wanted to bet that the Browns are going to end the season winless. And the price is the same for the 49ers - the other winless squad remaining. Neither team is very good - obviously. But does either have a chance at matching the Lions for all-time futility? And which team offers more value in this wildly entertaining bet - as long as you don't care about either of the teams? Let's put the two teams head-to-head to see which squad has the edge and what we can learn in the end:

NFL Expert Picks Against the Spread: Cincinnati Bengals at Jacksonville Jaguars
by Alan Matthews - 11/1/2017

Here's a sentence I'm not sure that I've typed since being hired by Doc's: it's a potentially playoff-important game for the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 9. I suppose the same can be said for the Cincinnati Bengals, but they have been a consistent playoff team for the most part this decade.