NFL Handicapping Articles

NFL Week 1 Lines and Expert Betting Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 5/7/2018

The draft is over and free agency is largely done with for the year in the NFL, so it feels like we are ready to play some football. The sad truth, though, is that the regular season is still a third of a year away. Ugh. While it will be a long wait for the season to get rolling again, we don't have to wait to handicap the first week of games. Bovada is one among several sportsbooks that have posted opening lines for most games in the first week of action. A lot will obviously change between now and then, but let's go shopping for some value, shall we? This isn't all of the games - some don't have numbers yet, and some just aren't that interesting:

Can the Philadelphia Eagles Repeat as Super Bowl Champions?
by Trevor Whenham - 5/3/2018

The defending champion Philadelphia Eagles are the second choice to win the Super Bowl at +800 at Bovada, and they are the first choice in the NFC - only New England at +500, the team that Philadelphia beat to win the Super Bowl, has lower odds. Now that the draft is done, and the heavy lifting of free agency is over with, the obvious questions looms - can the Philadelphia Eagles repeat as Super Bowl champions? It's a simple question without an easy answer. Let's look at it from a few different angles:

NFL Betting Impact of Rookie Quarterbacks
by Trevor Whenham - 5/2/2018

As expected, the first round of the NFL Draft this year was very quarterback-heavy. Four pivots went in the Top 10, and there were five picked in the first round. What made this year both unique and interesting was that there was far from a consensus as to which quarterback was the best. Lamar Jackson was universally fifth - though most people seemed to think he has real upside. But if you asked 10 different people to put the top four in order you would have gotten 10 different answers.

NFL Rookie of the Year Odds: Race for Best Offensive Newcomer
by Trevor Whenham - 5/2/2018

The NFL Draft is in the books, teams mostly look like they are going to look, and we as handicappers can now turn our attention towards the season and what may happen. And one of the more interesting things to consider right now is which of those draft picks are going to pay immediate dividends for their teams. The last two years Dak Prescott and Alvin Kamara have won the award, and few would have seen them coming when the seasons started.

NFL Betting: Should I Buy Points?
by Chris Vasile - 5/1/2018

It doesn't matter if you are a novice bettor just learning the ropes or a professional bettor that's seen everything in their 25 years in the business, at one time or another (more like several times in your lifetime) you will have to throw away a ticket in which a team failed to cover the point spread by a half point. It is one of the more frustrating losses in the industry, right next to the classic ninth-inning bullpen collapse in baseball. Some would say losing a bet by the hook is the bettors fault, not the actual players or coaches in the game, and in some cases they would be right. Buying points while sports betting is both a blessing and a curse -- depending on if you know when to do so or not.

2018 First Round NFL Draft Grades by Team
by Robert Ferringo - 4/27/2018

You cannot deny evolution. Some creatures are just born to thrive while others are meant for elimination. And we were treated to this cold, unrelenting fact of nature again on Thursday in the first round of the NFL Draft. The Cleveland Browns, New York Jets and Buffalo Bills are three loser franchises. They are three of the most hopeless, inconsequential organizations in sports, perpetual failures that serve as minor stepping stones for the elite teams in the NFL. And they all proved why that is once again by failing to take advantage of the fantastic opportunities they were given to alter their histories.

2018 NFL Draft: Breaking Down the Quarterback Class
by Robert Ferringo - 4/26/2018

By my count, between 1998-2014 just 17 of the 47 quarterbacks taken in the first round of the NFL Draft turned into legitimate, competent signal callers with positive careers. (It's too early to call it on anyone taken in the last three years.) And my definition of "legitimate, competent signal caller" liberally includes noted losers Carson Palmer (No. 1 overall pick with 92-88 career record and one playoff win), Jay Cutler (No. 11 overall pick with 74-79 record and one playoff win), and Daunte Culpepper (No. 11 overall pick with 41-59 career record and two playoff wins).

Cleveland Browns Need to Draft Barkley With No. 1 Pick in NFL Draft
by Robert Ferringo - 4/24/2018

The Cleveland Browns have been the most fascinating team in football so far this offseason. They have made several high-profile trades and signings. And with two of the top four picks in the NFL Draft they are in a position to restructure and redirect what has been one of the most incompetent franchises in sports.

Dez Bryant to the New England Patriots? Bet on It!
by Raphael Esparza - 4/18/2018

The NFL Draft is less than 10 days away, but right now the NFL talk is still about where former Dallas Cowboys WR Dez Bryant will play next year. Oddsmakers are split on where Bryant will suit up this upcoming football season as Bovada released its odds, and they have Baltimore Ravens (3-1) as the favorite. However, MyBookie has the Houston Texans as the favorite at +280.

NFL Betting Advice: What to Make of Los Angeles Rams Offseason Moves
by Trevor Whenham - 3/22/2018

Trading has come to the NFL in a bigger way than ever before this offseason, and the L.A. Rams have been a driving force in the trend. Their surprisingly strong season last year didn't end like they wanted it to, and through trading and other moves they have taken aggressive steps to make sure they are better prepared for the postseason this time around. It's still early, and the draft will impact how almost every team in the league looks going into the season. We are in a bit of a calm before the storm, though, with the busiest part of free agency past and the draft still a little way off.

Expert NFL Handicapping: New York Jets Moves Make Team Much Improved
by Trevor Whenham - 3/22/2018

You can't accuse the New York Jets of being inactive this offseason. Last year wasn't as much of a disaster as it seemed like it could have been on the field, but it was still a long way from good. However, the team had a pile of cap space and has been wildly aggressive in overhauling this team. There is still a lot of time left before the season, and the draft is going to be a big day for this team - as they have clearly signaled.

What the NFL Trade Bonanza Means for the Future of the League
by Trevor Whenham - 3/14/2018

It has been a March unlike we have ever seen in the NFL. A league that hates to trade - at least outside of draft day - has suddenly developed an intense love for it. Big deals have been coming hot and heavy the last few weeks. It's not just bit pieces being exchanged, either - Alex Smith, Robert Quinn, Aqib Talib, Marcus Peters, Michael Bennett, Tyrod Taylor, Jarvis Landry, Cordy Glenn and the rest are good players with a lot left to give. Teams are trading legitimate players and getting legitimate prices for them. It certainly hasn't been boring. And it leaves two questions for us as bettors - why is it happening, and what does it all mean? Let's address both in turn:

NFL Draft Betting Props for the First Overall Pick
by Trevor Whenham - 2/15/2018

As of right now the first pick in the NFL Draft - to be made by the Browns - is a total mystery. There is often some confusion at this point before the Combine and before teams have really started their intense digging, but this year things feel more uncertain than ever. We don't even know if the Browns will definitely pick a quarterback - as opposed to going for a free agent or a trade - never mind which one they will pick if they do take one.

QB Nick Foles to Leave Philadelphia Eagles Next Season? Bet on it!
by Trevor Whenham - 2/13/2018

I will fully admit that I didn't see the last month of Nick Foles' life coming. He was lousy early on when he took over from Carson Wentz, and he was far removed from his strong season with the Eagles under Chip Kelly, so I expected him to be the anchor that sunk this once-promising Philadelphia season. So, of course, he won Super Bowl MVP.

Handicapping the 2018 NFL Quarterback Market
by Trevor Whenham - 2/7/2018

We knew all along that the quarterback market in the NFL was going to be very active this year. What we weren't expecting, though, is that it was going to get strange so early. Washington seemingly panicked, throwing around a pick and a quality young DB to get a QB who is four years older, and certainly less explosive, than what they had. Alas, Alex Smith was considerably cheaper than Kirk Cousins was, which is likely his biggest attribute in the eyes of the team.

Can New England Patriots Get Back to Super Bowl after 2018 Defeat?
by Trevor Whenham - 2/6/2018

Five hundred and five freaking passing yards. No turnovers. And yet the New England Patriots somehow lost the Super Bowl. It seems odd now, and the further away we get from the game the more unbelievable it will be. We can't focus on their place in history, though. Right now we have to figure out what to expect from this team next year. The oddsmakers love this team - they are strong Super Bowl favorites yet again at +550 at BetOnline in ridiculously early Super Bowl odds. If we have learned anything by now it's that we can't count this team out no matter what. At this point, though, I find it tough to get excited about their role as Super Bowl favorites. There are just too many reasons to be skeptical.

AFC Championship Game Betting Advice: Keys and Distractions
by Trevor Whenham - 1/19/2018

The AFC Championship Game, like any football game, is a complex set of circumstances and possibilities that will likely be decided by just a few key matchups. The difference between the best teams and the worst in the NFL is really not that big, but the best teams just have the small edge in a few areas. That's the difference between winning it all and winning a high pick in the draft. So, when it comes to looking at individual games, those few key matchups are a good starting point. Here, then, are five of the biggest keys in the showdown between heavily-favored New England and Jacksonville as well as two distractions not worth any real attention:

NFC Championship Game Betting Advice: Keys and Distractions
by Trevor Whenham - 1/19/2018

There are countless different components to a football game. More than 100 plays will take place in the game, and each one features 22 players all trying to make a difference. And each play features many coaches making many decisions as well. That's a whole lot of factors that could affect the outcome of a game. And the job of handicappers is to figure out which of those factors matter - which matchups are worth paying attention to because they could impact the outcome of the game. Here are three factors that I think are the most important in this game and one that is a big distraction because it seems so much more relevant than it really is.

NFL Playoffs Betting Advice: Ranking the Quarterbacks for Championship Sunday
by Trevor Whenham - 1/19/2018

It's a bizarre and intriguing group of quarterbacks in the final four of the NFL playoffs this year. They say that nothing matters more than a franchise quarterback, but this year that notion is certainly challenged. You have perhaps the greatest QB of all time, and then you have two guys who weren't even starters entering the year and a starter who no one would want on their team. Tom Brady has as many Super Bowl wins as the other three guys have combined playoff starts. It's really going to show us just how much quarterbacking matters.

NFL Expert Picks Against the Spread: Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles
by Alan Matthews - 1/18/2018

The NFL is a copycat league. Does the fact we have two journeyman quarterbacks playing for a spot in Super Bowl LII mean that other teams no longer will think they need franchise quarterbacks? Uh, no. I believe the only reason the Eagles and Vikings were the NFC's top seeds and are in Sunday's late game is because of extenuating circumstances in their own divisions.