NFL Handicapping Articles

Potential NFL No. 1 Draft Pick: Props Odds and Expert Betting Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 2/27/2019

The NFL Combine has begun, which means that this is a good time to look ahead to the NFL Draft. Barring a major shock, at this point you can narrow down the list of potential first overall picks to about six guys. And whenever something is as high profile as the first overall pick, and the field can be easily identified, there is a betting opportunity. BetOnline has set odds for the first overall pick, and our job here today is to look at them to see if there is any value.

Kyler Murray NFL Betting Props with Expert NFL Draft Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 2/27/2019

Kyler Murray is one of the most interesting players to enter the NFL Draft in recent memory. At this time last year, he was just one of two guys who could be in line to replace Heisman winner Baker Mayfield at Oklahoma. He was the slight favorite over Austin Kendall, but he was no lock. Then, in June, the story started getting more complicated. He was the ninth pick in the MLB Draft by Oakland, and he signed a contract with them.

Gronk New England Patriots Betting Prop Odds with Expert Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 2/12/2019

If you have read any of what I have written over the last many years, you know that I love prop bets. And I may have a new favorite on because it's just so stupid. Stupid in a very good way, to be clear. I'm speaking of the prop at Bovada that allows us to speculate about what the first thing Rob Gronkowski will do when he retires from the NFL. We don't know if that will be now or later down the road - and if I had to choose, I still think he'll be back for more - but the timing doesn't matter.

Bet on Where the Oakland Raiders will Play Next Season: Odds and Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 2/11/2019

If you have been in a coma then you will want to sit down because this will come as a shock - the Oakland Raiders have made a mess of a situation. I know, it seems impossible that a franchise run forever by the Davis family -- the organization that gave Jon Gruden full ability to do whatever he wants to do to the team -- could possibly do anything that was less than perfect. But such is the case.

Which NFL Teams are in the Market for a New QB?
by Trevor Whenham - 2/8/2019

The Super Bowl is in the rearview mirror, so it's time for the NFL offseason. And in many ways that is just as interesting as the regular season. And far more interesting than that Super Bowl game was. This year's offseason promises to be an exciting one because there are plenty of teams that need quarterbacks, and quarterbacks mean fireworks. And there are lots of choices on the market - no great ones, but plenty of decent enough ones. Buckle up - this is going to be fun. Here's a quick primer on the market as it stands.

Expert NFL Handicapping: What Does Future Hold for Patriots?
by Trevor Whenham - 2/8/2019

This could be the easiest assignment I ever have. What does the future hold for the New England Patriots? Well, they are probably going to play in the Super Bowl, and they are a good bet to win it. That's as true next year as it was this year. And it will be just as true in 19 years when Tom Brady becomes the first QB in his 60s to win a Super Bowl, and the first living athlete to win more than 20 Super Bowls, and Bill Belichick surpasses that IBM chess computer thingy to become the most successful robot in competitive history.

NFL Betting and Handicapping: Can LA Rams Bounce Back?
by Trevor Whenham - 2/8/2019

I hope that the Los Angeles Rams have a giant mirror somewhere in their facility, because there is not a single person on that roster or that staff that doesn't need to look deep into their own eyes and figure out what they are made of after that game. It was a close Super Bowl on the scoreboard, but if there was a moment in which it felt like the Rams were going to win the game, I sure didn't see it.

NFL Championship Weekend Odds: Public Action Betting Report
by Trevor Whenham - 1/17/2019

As I write this it is late Wednesday night, so the lines for Sunday's playoff games have been set for a long time now. They have gotten a lot of attention from sharp bettors, and casual bettors have started hitting them as well. It's a good time, then, to look at how bettors are reacting to the lines and how the lines are reacting to the early betting. With so much money bet on the two games this weekend, we can often learn a whole lot just by looking at the public action and what it can tell is.

NFL Betting Advice: AFC Championship Game Keys and Distractions
by Trevor Whenham - 1/16/2019

The top two teams in the AFC - by the standings if not by record - meet in frigid Kansas City with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line. The oldest quarterback in the league against a first-year starter. A three-time and reigning MVP against, presumably, the guy who is about to earn his first MVP award. Two of the longest serving and savviest coaches in the league - albeit two guys with very different playoff records.

NFC Championship Game Expert Handicapping: Keys and Distractions
by Trevor Whenham - 1/16/2019

The NFC Championship Game is a very intriguing battle even if it isn't exactly surprising - this is exactly the game it seemed like we would be getting since at least the beginning of November. It really should be fun - the two best offenses in the NFC with the two best point differentials. Both teams are very well coached, but the battle of the Seans is still a study in contrasts - when Payton started coaching the Saints,

Expert NFL Handicapping: Are New England Patriots Vulnerable?
by Trevor Whenham - 1/10/2019

Of all the eight teams remaining in the NFL Playoffs, the New England Patriots are the ones that probably make my head hurt most. They are like one of those paintings that looks entirely different depending on which direction you look at it from. Sometimes the painting is beautiful, and other times it is hideous, and you never know quite which.

NFL Divisional Round Playoffs Betting: Keys and Distractions
by Trevor Whenham - 1/8/2019

Handicapping successfully at any time is all about separating what actually matters from all the stuff that doesn't. If you can do that consistently, you will probably be a winner. And that is more important than ever in the NFL Playoffs when everyone is an expert, and there is wall-to-wall coverage of every game. Don't worry, though, we are here to help. Here is one of the biggest keys for each playoff team if they want to live to fight another day and a distraction that you will hear a lot about but you need to ignore.

NFL Betting Trends: Playoff Teams off Bye Week
by Trevor Whenham - 1/6/2019

We have a unique experience coming up in the second round of the NFL Playoffs. Each year we see four teams that have played for their playoff lives and won in the opening week. And their reward is to play against a well-rested team, typically with a better record, on the road. The playoffs are set up to give a distinct advantage to teams that finish in the top two spots in their conference. As bettors, our jobs are to figure out what that home-field advantage and the extra rest translates to in terms of a betting advantage.

Expert NFL Betting Advice: Ranking the Playoff Teams
by Trevor Whenham - 1/4/2019

Every wild card game this year is tight and compelling. And for bettors, that means that these playoffs are going to be a bit of a nightmare. I don't remember going into the playoffs with a more wide-open field. I can make at least something of a case for 10 different teams to win it all this year. And while one team, New Orleans, is above the rest, the gap isn't nearly what it has been in some years, and there isn't a single team that would be shocking to see lose their first or second game.

NFL Betting Odds: Week 17 Line Movements & Last-Minute News
by Alan Matthews - 12/28/2018

It's our last Line Movements & Last-Minute News story for the 2018 regular season, although obviously things are just getting started in a way NFL wise with the playoffs on tap. We'll have you more than covered through the first Sunday in February here at Doc's.

NFL Betting Odds: Week 16 Line Movements & Last-Minute News
by Alan Matthews - 12/21/2018

In many ways, Week 16 is the last "real" one of the 2018 regular season because there are only two games that don't feature a team mathematically alive for a playoff spot: Green Bay at NY Jets and Denver at Oakland (Monday). There will be a ton that don't mean squat in Week 17.

Expert NFL Handicapping: Can Los Angeles Rams Get Back on Track?
by Trevor Whenham - 12/20/2018

Let's start with the most important thing to remember when talking about the L.A. Rams right now. The team is 11-3 and has remaining games against Arizona and San Francisco, so they are well positioned to have a first-round bye as the second seed in the playoffs. We are not on the edge of disaster or anything.

NFL Handicapping and Betting: What to Make of Patriots Stuggles
by Trevor Whenham - 12/20/2018

When it comes to the New England Patriots, this is not what we are used to seeing. Sure, they are going to run away with their division yet again. And with games against the Bills and Jets remaining, they are very well positioned for double-digit wins as usual. But this is the team that was favored to win the Super Bowl heading into the season, and they are certainly not playing like a real contender right now.

NFL Betting Odds: Week 15 Line Movements & Last-Minute News
by Alan Matthews - 12/14/2018

Each week in this space, we try to address either the biggest news or top line moves for Sunday's games. It's rather nice when the two apply to the same game. That would be Sunday night's Eagles at Rams matchup. Los Angeles opened as low as -7.5 and now can be found as high as 12.5. The total has dropped around 54.5 to 52.5. Sometimes, it's not always crystal clear why a line moves so massively, but it's 100 percent known here: Carson Wentz.

NFL Playoff Teams: Handicapping Those Hard or Easy to Trust
by Trevor Whenham - 12/13/2018

As we wait for the action to start in Week 15 of the NFL season, there are still several teams in the playoff hunt. In the AFC there are four playoff locks and five teams realistically alive for the final two spots. In the NFC there are five playoff locks or near locks and four teams at the heart of one of the worst wild-card chases I ever remember. So, there are 18 teams at least sort of in the playoff conversation with three games left.