NFL Handicapping Articles

NFL Handicapping: Potential Breakthrough Running Backs
by T.O. Whenham - 9/8/2009

Every year there are a few running backs who post big statistical years without having done it before. In some cases it's a hot rookie who lands in a good spot and makes the most of it. Other times it's a veteran who benefits form a change of scenery, a new scheme, or a move up the depth chart. Last year guys like Michael Turner, Steve Slaton, and Matt Forte put up the big numbers when they weren't necessarily expected to.

NFC North: Season Win Totals Predictions
by Dave Busk - 9/8/2009

A couple of weeks ago the Packers were listed at (8.5) -1.45 to go ‘over,’ now some money has pushed this line up. If I didn’t take the (8.5) there is no way I will take the ‘over’ (9) and lay the same amount of juice, but in my option the Pack is back in 2009. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers had some big shoes to fill replacing Brett Farve. Despite a 6-10 record in 2008, Rodgers still threw for more than 4,000 yards and 28 touchdowns.

NFL Handicapping: Public Teams
by T.O. Whenham - 9/4/2009

No matter what sport you are handicapping you have to consider which teams are public teams, and what effect those teams will have on the lines of their games. Simply put, a public team is one which the public - generally the less sophisticated bettors - are likely to back basically regardless of the spread, their opponent, or the other usual factors that would affect the outcome of the game and the handicapping decisions.

NFL Week 1 Highlights
by T.O. Whenham - 9/4/2009

We are now just days away from the start of the NFL season. After the long, dry football-less stretch of time known as the spring and summer any real, meaningful game will be welcome. Some of the games are obviously going to be better than others, though. As I look over the schedule and week 1 NFL odds - because I'd rather do that than watch a second of the Week 4 preseason games - there are seven games that jump out to me as being particularly interesting (odds are from Bodog):

NFL Betting: Brett Favre Props
by Matt Severance - 9/4/2009

I don’t know about you, but I am Brett Favre’d out! So the last thing I really wanted to do was write an article on the most wishy-washy player in NFL (and sports?) history. But Favre clearly drives the needle, so I feel compelled to hit on some Favre-specific prop options available on Bodog.

NFL Betting: When Do Lions Break Through?
by Matt Severance - 9/4/2009

The Detroit Lions are on fire! Restore the Roar! They finished the preseason on Thursday night with a 3-1 record. So obviously the Lions must be a better club than last season’s 0-16 regular-season club, right? Not so fast my friends!

NFL Handicapping: Quarterbacks That Could Drain Your Wallet
by T.O. Whenham - 9/4/2009

As we look towards the NFL regular season, wishing it would finally get here after an endless and mostly dull preseason, we have to look for ways to pass the time - I'm certainly not going to watch the final preseason games. To pass the time and get ready for the season I've been staring at stats until I'm almost blind.

NFL Injury Situations for Week 1
by T.O. Whenham - 9/1/2009

As we head into the NFL regular season, it's a good time to remind ourselves of the importance of injuries to our NFL handicapping. A key injury can turn a good bet into a bad one if it changes the complexion of the team, or it can make a good bet a great one if the public overcompensates for the injury and moves the betting lines in your favor. Here's a look at ten key injury situations that we will likely have to consider in the first week of the NFL season:

The Lowdown on Las Vegas Football Contests
by Vegas Sports Informer - 9/1/2009

The 2009-10 football season is here and the Las Vegas sports books are ready for the lines, smoke in the employee’s eyes, and, of course, the influx of novice bettors. It’s no secret that Las Vegas gears up for football season and not only do the books prepare for moths but the whole casino prepares.

NFL Handicapping: Biggest Preseason Surprises
by T.O. Whenham - 8/27/2009

The NFL preseason seems to go on forever. A lot of what happens is either expected or not at all shocking. Every so often, though, I see something that seems honestly and truly surprising. Here's a look at nine such things so far this year:

NFL Handicapping: Final Two Preseason Games
by T.O. Whenham - 8/25/2009

We're about to enter an inner circle of hell - the last two NFL preseason games. I suppose that there are a couple of good reasons why these last two games exist, but by far the biggest is that it allows NFL owners to charge full price for two more games.

NFL Handicapping: Preseason Quarterback Concerns
by T.O. Whenham - 8/25/2009

Most teams come into the preseason with a pretty good idea of who their quarterback is going to be to start the season. There are exceptions, of course, like Arizona, Tampa Bay, Cleveland, Minnesota and others this year, but for the most part the plan is set well before August. Where it can get really scary for teams and their fans, though, is when a designated starter doesn't play anything like a starter in preseason action.

NFL Handicapping: High-Value Teams
by T.O. Whenham - 8/21/2009

Every year there are NFL teams that perform significantly better than they are expected to coming into the season. Two years ago, few people saw the Browns turning things around so dramatically. Last year Tennessee was a pleasant surprise. Being able to spot those teams that are better than expected is a good way to make your bankroll grow. Here's a look at five teams that have the potential to be surprisingly good:

NFL Preseason Totals Predictions for Week 2
by Robert Ferringo - 8/18/2009

A fellow handicapper at Doc’s Sports sent me the following e-mail late Monday night: “They must have gotten burned with some overs last week, they are really bumping up the totals.” The “They” in that sentence refers to our common mortal enemy: the sportsbooks. When I did my initial scan of the football odds for NFL Preseason Week 2 I did notice that the totals seemed high.

Brett Favre Saga Continues
by T.O. Whenham - 8/18/2009

Call me naive, but I honestly thought that the Brett Favre saga was over. For a while, anyway. I was certain that he would flirt with a comeback again next year, and I even thought that a team or two would try to convince him back six weeks or so into the season if things were going badly, but I really didn't see him ending his retirement after just three weeks.

NFL Handicapping: Jay Cutler Will Be Bears Bust
by Robert Ferringo - 8/17/2009

Four years ago I was writing on this very site that Dante Culpepper was the most overrated quarterback in the NFL. As you might expect, this statement was met with a waterfall of vitriol and was nearly as popular as Rick Pitino at a Birther’s rally. After all, Culpepper had been to multiple Pro Bowls and was coming off a year in which he threw for 4,700 yards. He was the man, right? Well, not to me.

Dave Busk: Thoughts on the Eagles and Vick
by Dave Busk - 8/14/2009

Signing Michael Vick was a very controversial decision made by the Philadelphia Eagles, but someone in the NFL was going to take this chance. According to an ESPN poll, close to 70 percent of the country thought this was a good move by the Eagles, but that is a much different than that of most of the tough Philly fans who were blindsided by this announcement on Thursday night during the Patriots/Eagles preseason game.

Handicapping NFL Strength of Schedule
by Matt Severance - 8/10/2009

So much does NFL strength of schedule really matter when deciding to place those futures bets down on a certain team? Before I answer that, let me first give you statistical analysis, and maybe the correct response will present itself.

Football Betting Money Management Tips
by T.O. Whenham - 8/7/2009

You've probably heard it a hundred times, but that's only because it's true - good money management is the single biggest factor in long term betting success. You can't win a bet if you can't afford to make it, and if you bet too much on games you're eventually going to go broke. There are a million different places to read about the basics of money management, so I will leave that to you. While you are thinking about how you will manage your money, though, there are some basic central questions you need to ask yourself. Here are six:

NFL Handicapping: Unheralded Players
by Robert Ferringo - 8/7/2009

Brett Favre mows his lawn and it’s front-page news. Chad Johnson changes his name and he ends up just chewing up airtime. Terrell Owens doesn’t do something crazy and there are op-eds discussing his mental state. Well, Favre isn’t playing this year. Johnson is a good receiver for a team that’s won about five games per year the last two seasons. And Owens had nearly as many dropped passes (10) last year as his quarterback had touchdowns (11).