NFL Handicapping Articles

NFL Handicapping: Best and Worst Offseasons
by T.O. Whenham - 4/9/2012

We are, with a few exceptions, at the end of NFL free agency in a meaningful sense. Now we’re just waiting for the draft to start. In this short lull in the NFL offseason it’s a good opportunity to look at what teams have improved themselves significantly so far, and which ones have had a regrettable offseason (all odds are from Bovada):

Tim Tebow and Matt Flynn 2012 Season Props Odds and Betting Predictions
by Alan Matthews - 3/22/2012

It’s not too often that a guy who sets a Green Bay Packers record with 480 yards passing and six touchdowns (Green Bay has had a few pretty good quarterbacks, after all) in a game gets overlooked when he changes teams, but that was definitely the case last week when free agent Matt Flynn signed with the Seattle Seahawks. Flynn, the Packers’ backup behind NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers a season ago, was vastly overshadowed by the Peyton Manning circus.

NFL Quarterback Carousel and Futures Odds Effects
by T.O. Whenham - 3/22/2012

You certainly can’t complain that the NFL Offseason has been boring — at least not when it comes to the quarterback position. At least seven teams have had some degree of drama or activity around their most important position. Five of those seven teams have gotten better in my eyes. Only one has significantly affected their future odds as a result of the moves. Let’s take a look:

Peyton Manning to the Denver Broncos Props Odds and Betting Predictions
by Alan Matthews - 3/19/2012

The biggest-name free agent in NFL history has chosen a home: Peyton Manning is going to be a Denver Bronco. Was it the wisest move? Perhaps not. After all, the San Francisco 49ers made it to the NFC Championship Game a season ago, have one of the NFL’s best defenses, already have signed Randy Moss and play in an easier division than do the Broncos. And the Niners wanted Manning badly. So did the Arizona Cardinals, Tennessee Titans and Miami Dolphins.

NFL Combine: Biggest Storylines
by T.O. Whenham - 2/21/2012

By this point everyone knows that the top two guys are Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III, and that no other pivot is even close. Most people also know that Luck is very well positioned to go first overall to Indianapolis.

NFL Free Agency Storylines
by T.O. Whenham - 2/21/2012

With NFL free agency just around the corner and with teams scrambling to figure what they can and can’t afford to do, here’s a look at some of the most interesting storylines heading into the NFL’s biggest period of collective insanity:

NFL Draft Predictions: Robert Griffin III
by T.O. Whenham - 2/17/2012

Entering this college football season everyone knew what was supposed to happen — Andrew Luck was supposed to collect his Heisman Trophy en route to being selected first overall in the NFL Draft. Baylor’s Robert Griffin III derailed the first half of that plan in pretty spectacular fashion, though. Now the outspoken Griffin has said that he plans to do what he can to wreck the second half of the plan as well.

Peyton Manning Playing for Another Team in 2012? Bet on It!
by Alan Matthews - 2/2/2012

You knew it was inevitable, but unfortunately a player who didn’t even suit up this year is stealing most of the attention before Super Bowl XLVI. And, of course, I mean Peyton Manning and his very tenuous future with the Colts – not to mention if he can even play again after sitting this season out due to another neck surgery.

Peyton Manning Overshadowing Super Bowl
by T.O. Whenham - 2/1/2012

The scenario was supposed to play out like a fairy tale. The Super Bowl was set for the non-traditional setting of Indianapolis. The Colts have the best quarterback on the planet. He was supposed to lead his team to a victory at home.

NFL Playoffs Betting Advice: Handicapping the Quarterbacks
by T.O. Whenham - 1/20/2012

There are four teams left in the NFL Playoff bracket. That means there are four starting quarterbacks left. In a league in which bettors care about nothing more than quarterbacks, those four men have more focus on them than anyone in the sports world right now. With that in mind, it seems like a good idea to take an inventory of what these four guys offer from a betting perspective. A lot of it obviously isn’t rocket science, but it is helpful to see it all in one place:

NFL Conference Championship Odds: Betting Props and Predictions
by Alan Matthews - 1/20/2012

Ok, then, 0-for-6, on the “most” props on Bovada so far in these playoffs. At least I know I can’t go against Drew Brees to throw for the most yards this week with the New Orleans Saints being shocked in San Francisco last weekend. On the most rushing yards for the divisional round, I didn’t like the favored Ray Rice of the Ravens and at least that was wise.

NFL Props Odds and Predictions: The Colts’ Next Head Coach
by Alan Matthews - 1/18/2012

Well, I knew it was coming. I just wish it had happened between the final Sunday of the NFL’s regular season and the first wild-card weekend playoff game when I recommended an ‘over/under’ of head coaches fired prop at Bovada for that stretch.

This Week in NFL Betting By the Numbers
by Darin Zank - 1/18/2012

It's Final Four time in the NFL, also known as conference championship weekend, which means that Sunday night we'll know the matchup for Super Bowl XLVI (that's 46 for all you non-Romans out there). As far as last weekend was concerned there were several interesting numbers to come out of it, like four, which was the number of touchdowns the Saints and 49ers combined to score in the last four minutes of their divisional-round thriller; and six, as in the number of touchdown passes Tom Brady threw vs. Denver; and three, as in the number of points the Ravens and Texans combined to score in the second half of their game; and 12, which was the average number of beers it took the average Packer fan to drown his sorrows after the loss to the Giants.

AFC Championship Game Picks: Ravens at Patriots NFL Odds Predictions
by Robert Ferringo - 1/18/2012

Old warriors die the hardest. For the last decade Tom Brady and Ray Lewis have been the standard bearers for offense and defense, respectively, in the National Football League. They have each gone to war nearly 200 times in their careers and both have won every accolade, both individual awards and titles, that a player can ever hope for. They are first-ballot Hall of Fame players and they will match wills once again with everything on the line.

NFC Championship Game Predictions: Giants at 49ers Odds and Betting Picks
by Robert Ferringo - 1/18/2012

The 49ers and Giants advanced to the NFC Title Game thanks to incredible defensive efforts last week, outmuscling the No. 1 and No. 3 offenses in football, respectively, in wins over the Saints and Packers. San Francisco and New York forced turnovers and took advantage of weaker defenses in both games, and now they will bang heads in what should be another NFC Championship Game between these long-time rivals.

NFL Betting Advice: Home Field Advantage in Conference Championship Games
by T.O. Whenham - 1/18/2012

There is always a lot of talk about home field advantage in the NFL Playoffs. This is a very interesting time to be talking about it, too. Last weekend in the NFC alone we saw two extremes. We saw how important it can be when the Niners road the emotion of a rabid crowd to a huge rallying win, and we saw how little playing in an iconic building can matter if a team isn’t ready to play.

NFL Handicapping: Exploiting the (Few) Weaknesses of Drew Brees
by T.O. Whenham - 1/13/2012

With apologies to Tim Tebow and Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees is the quarterbacking story of the playoffs right now. Every time the guy touches the ball he seems to set another record. Even a quick summary of his accomplishments are remarkable. He has passed for at least 300 yards in his last eight games, and he is averaging more than 350 yards per game all season.

NFL Divisional Round Player Props and Betting Predictions
by Alan Matthews - 1/11/2012

For the NFL’s four-game wild-card weekend, I analyzed three player props: most yards passing, rushing and receiving. And the results, unfortunately, weren’t pretty. Saints quarterback Drew Brees was the heavy favorite to throw for the most yards last week, and that’s obviously understandable considering he set the NFL single-season yardage record this year. I didn’t recommend Brees against the defensively porous Lions last week only because he was such a big favorite.

NFL Totals Betting: Divisional-Round Weekend Over and Under Predictions
by David Schwab - 1/11/2012

The offense got the best of it in last weekend’s Wild Card Round of the NFL playoff bracket as three of the four games went ‘over’ the total. The average number of points scored by the four winning teams was 32.3. The NFL playoffs now move onto the Divisional Round, which offers another great opportunity to mine some value out of the total lines. The following are the top two ‘over/under’ plays for this weekend’s matchups with the lines provided by BetOnline.

This Week in NFL Betting By the Numbers
by Darin Zank - 1/11/2012

The most shocking number to come out of the NFL's wild-card playoff weekend was five, as in the number of 30-plus-yard pass plays the Pittsburgh Steelers allowed Denver's Tim Tebow to complete. How the hell does that happen to the No. 1 defense in the league, by a guy who supposedly can't throw? We don't know. And who the hell saw that coming? Nobody, that's who.