NFL Handicapping Articles

NFL Betting and Handicapping: Scouting the Week Ahead
by Alan Matthews - 9/10/2013

So how important is Week 1 in the NFL? I would argue not that much -- certainly nowhere near as important as the opening week in college football. Thus, I wouldn't read too much into the NFL's first week, although there are certainly some warning signs for a few teams.

NFL Handicapping: Don’t Overreact to Broncos Impressive Week 1 Performance
by Trevor Whenham - 9/10/2013

If you have read much of what I have written — repeatedly — about the Broncos leading into this session, then by now you probably think I sound like a Grinch. After seeing their truly impressive performance against the Ravens in their opener, though, my message of general bearishness about the team — at least from a betting perspective — is now more important than ever.

NFL Handicapping: Week 1 Surprises
by Trevor Whenham - 9/10/2013

The NFL season is very young, and we have learned time and again that what happens in the first week, or in the first few weeks, doesn’t always translate into what will happen over the whole season. That being said, since we spend the whole offseason crafting and refining our expectations for teams, it makes sense after the first game to look at the teams and players that posted surprising efforts — in positive or negative ways.

2013 NFL Worst Team Record Odds and Predictions
by Alan Matthews - 9/6/2013

Anyone can bet on which team will win the Super Bowl. It's why Survivor Pools are so popular -- you predict which team will win each week. You rarely see the opposite angle, and that's why I love Sportsbook.ag's prop on which NFL team will finish the 2013 season with the worst record. Frankly, if you are going to stink, this is the year to do it (much like in the NBA Draft with a loaded 2014 class). It appears there are at least two franchise players who will be in next May's NFL Draft (remember, it was moved back a few weeks in 2014): South Carolina defensive end Jadeveon Clowney and Louisville quarterback Teddy Bridgewater.

2013 NFL Team, Player Exotics Odds and Predictions
by Alan Matthews - 9/4/2013

Easily the most interesting time to bet the NFL is on the eve of the season because the books come up with all these very unique exotic bets. You won't see a ton of these during the year because the books obviously are going to be pretty busy during the week and don't have time for the research for the out-of-the-box bets. That said, I will bring you stories when they happen -- Bovada, for example, often releases weekly specials that are different from normal props.

Basic Strategy Teasers: Best Week 1 NFL Betting Options
by George Monroy - 9/4/2013

A basic strategy teaser may be one of the sharpest wagers a bettor can make during the NFL football season. These bets are simple six-point, two-team teasers that move spreads through the strongest NFL key numbers of three and seven—the most common margin of victory during professional football games. Basic strategy teasers are positive expected value plays and should provide bettors with an advantage over the sportsbooks.

NFL Totals Betting: Week 1 Over and Under Predictions
by Dave Schwab - 9/4/2013

While a good majority of the people that enjoy wagering on the NFL tend to focus much of their attention on a particular matchup’s pointspread, many times the real value in the lines can be found in the “over/under” for that game.

NFL Handicapping: Thursday Night Games
by Zack Cimini - 9/4/2013

Over the past decade, we have witnessed enormous changes in the NFL: new overtime rules, challenge flags, fines for certain types of hits, regular season games in Europe, and even schedule changes. Every time there is an amendment, it is questioned by the media – vigorously – and then, just as quickly, it takes a second seat to the real end result: the game of football on the field.

NFC East Weekly NFL Betting Picks: Week 1
by Dave Schwab - 9/3/2013

A new NFL season gets underway this week, and one of the most competitive divisions in the league this year should be the NFC East. All four teams are within two games of each other in terms of their predicted win total for the regular season, which should keep the division title race tight all the way to Week 17.

Top Props of the Week: 2013 NFL Win Totals Three-Way Lines
by Dave Schwab - 9/3/2013

Just about every major sportsbook has released its odds for the “over/under” on each NFL team’s projected win total for the upcoming regular season, but Sportsbook.ag takes these prop bets one step further by offering a third set of odds for a tie. The following is a look at three teams that offer some solid value in their odds for hitting that projected win total right on the nose.

NFL Betting and Handicapping: Scouting the Week Ahead
by Alan Matthews - 9/2/2013

Have we gone into an NFL season in recent memory with such uncertainty at quarterback for a handful of teams? Let's start with the New York Jets, who very much appear poised to have their worst season since going 4-12 in 2007. We all know by now that Rex Ryan made the disastrous decision to play Mark Sanchez in the fourth quarter of the team's third preseason game.

Bold NFL Predictions for the 2013-14 Season
by Trevor Whenham - 9/2/2013

Things are getting out of control on this front in my eyes. Peyton Manning is the favorite to win the MVP at 5/1, and his team is the co-favorite to win the Super Bowl at 6/1. I feel like the lone voice in the wilderness, but I have been saying it a lot this preseason, and I’ll say it again here -- this just doesn’t make sense. Manning is 37 years old and a season removed from an injury that could have crippled him – and did cost him a year and his position on a team that he was as closely identified with as any player in sports.

NFL Handicapping: Best Backup QBs
by Trevor Whenham - 9/2/2013

As NFL handicappers we probably don’t spend enough time thinking about backup quarterbacks. When we are handicapping baseball we look past the starting pitcher and consider the strength of the bullpen because we know the starter isn’t likely to finish the game. The backup quarterback isn’t as likely to be seen, but in this rough league we are just one big hit away from a change.

NFL Handicapping: QB Talent Gap between Starter and Backup
by Trevor Whenham - 9/2/2013

The NFL is a very dangerous place for quarterbacks. Unless you are like Brett Favre in his prime, you are going to get hurt at some point, and your team will have to play without you. For some teams a hurt starter isn’t that big of a deal.

NFL Handicapping: Most Important Games First Two Weeks
by Trevor Whenham - 9/2/2013

For bettors, every game in the NFL has the potential to be important. Some are inevitably more important than others, though – at least in terms of what they can teach us and what they mean for the season ahead. When teams face a challenge, we can learn what they are made of, how adaptable and tough they are, and what we can expect the next time they are challenged.

Managing your NFL Betting Bankroll
by Trevor Whenham - 9/2/2013

It’s time for the start of another NFL betting season. For committed bettors there is no better time of year than this one. Betting on the NFL is a marathon, not a sprint, though – the regular season stretches for a third of a year before the really good stuff even begins. During that marathon there are going to be betting hot stretches and also points where you couldn’t pick a winner if there was only one team playing a scrimmage against themselves.

NFL Handicapping: Preseason Winners and Losers
by Robert Ferringo - 8/30/2013

Contrary to popular belief, the NFL Preseason is not worthless. There is plenty of information to be gleaned from the exhibition season, and after a month of closely analyzing the 32 professional teams, I feel like the tone has been set for the pro football betting season.

Monday Night Football Betting Stats and Trends
by George Monroy - 8/30/2013

“Monday Night Football” might be the most anticipated day of the football week. It’s a day for bettors to try and get even or extend their profit from the previous week as well as the one day that football is thrust into the national spotlight with a prime-time television slot. MNF has become an America institution, and it is the one game of the week that has all the attention of the general public and gambling world.

Top Props of the Week: 2013 NFL Free Agent WR Touchdown Props
by Dave Schwab - 8/28/2013

The name at the top of this list is wide receiver Wes Welker, who jumped ship from a very successful ride in New England to try and win another Super Bowl this season with the Denver Broncos. The money line odds that he catches “over” 7.5 touchdown receptions in the 2013 regular season is currently set at +105, while the odds he catches “under” that total are set at -135.

AFC North one of Toughest Races in NFL
by Nicholas Tolomeo - 8/27/2013

The AFC North race is shaping up to be one of the most competitive in the league this season. While people are ready to concede the West to Denver, the East to New England and the South to Houston, nobody is quite sure who the favorite is in the AFC North, not even oddsmakers.