NFL Handicapping Articles

Cleveland Browns Odds to Win the Super Bowl and Betting Futures
by Alan Matthews - 6/13/2014

The Cleveland Browns haven't made the playoffs in 12 years. That's not the longest drought in the NFL as that belongs to Buffalo. But Browns fans would likely be thrilled with even the moderate success the Bills have had the past few years -- i.e. six wins.

2014 Buffalo Bills Odds to Win the Super Bowl and Betting Futures
by Alan Matthews - 6/13/2014

It's been a rough offseason for Buffalo Bills long-time fans. Owner Ralph Wilson, the only reason the city still has a team and will likely keep it, passed away. The club is still up for sale and a new stadium will be needed to keep it in the area but Wilson smartly included a location clause for when the club was sold whenever he died. Jim Kelly, the greatest player in franchise history, is battling cancer. So this franchise deserves some good karma.

2014 Odds to Win AFC West with Picks and NFL Predictions
by Dave Schwab - 6/11/2014

The NFL offseason continues to grind along with rookie minicamps and OTAs (organized training activities), but before you know it, the start of another exciting season of NFL action will be upon us. To get you ready for all the action, I am going to take a closer look at BetOnline’s NFL futures odds to win each of the eight divisions, starting with the AFC West, with picks and predictions for betting.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Odds to Win the Super Bowl and Betting Futures
by Alan Matthews - 6/11/2014

It's quite possible that the Tampa Bay Bucs have been the biggest mess in the NFL since the start of the 2011 season. The end of the Raheem Morris era couldn't have gone much worse as Tampa started the 2011 campaign 4-2 before losing 10 straight. That led the Bucs to fire Morris and turn to Rutgers' Greg Schiano, presumably because he could install some discipline.

Tennessee Titans Odds to Win the Super Bowl and Betting Futures
by Alan Matthews - 6/10/2014

I like to compare the Tennessee Titans to the NBA's Atlanta Hawks. Tennessee is usually a pretty solid team but never much of a championship threat (that Super Bowl loss in the 1999 season notwithstanding). However, the Titans also never get bad enough to land a franchise player. Just like Atlanta.

Minnesota Vikings Odds to Win the Super Bowl and Betting Futures
by Alan Matthews - 6/6/2014

It's almost as if the Minnesota front office expected to lose last season. Sure, the Vikings were a surprising 10-6 in 2012 and played in the wild-card game. However, that club was carried by NFL MVP Adrian Peterson, who had one of the best seasons ever for a running back. The Vikings did little to address their questions about Christian Ponder at quarterback and traded their other best offensive player, receiver Percy Harvin.

Oakland Raiders Odds to Win the Super Bowl
by Alan Matthews - 6/5/2014

I'm sure the various sportsbooks will release the First NFL Coach to be Fired prop on the eve of the season, and if Oakland's Dennis Allen isn't the favorite, he shouldn't be any worse than No. 2. The Raiders have had back-to-back four-win seasons under Allen, who wasn't exactly a sexy choice when hired. It's not Allen's fault really as no team was in worse salary cap shape in terms of dead money a few years ago than Oakland.

NFL Odds: Week 3 Matchup Power Rankings
by Alan Matthews - 6/3/2014

Really not a very sexy lineup of games in Week 3 -- the last before the bye weeks again -- but the entire schedule is boosted up by one matchup: the Super Bowl rematch between the Broncos and Seahawks in Seattle. Think that will do well ratings-wise for CBS? The following odds are part of the full-season of NFL odds that were released recently by CG Technologies in Las Vegas.

NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Props Odds and Betting Picks
by Dave Schwab - 6/3/2014

The top college football players in the county last season found new homes in the NFL in last month’s draft, so Bovada quickly calculated the results to release its futures odds to win this season’s NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year.

NFL Season Win Totals Picks: Toughest Teams to Handicap
by Trevor Whenham - 6/2/2014

When you look at NFL season win totals, there are some that jump out as immediate bargains — your opinion and those of the oddsmakers differ, and there is value to be had. Then there are several totals in which a side clearly emerges after you consider the options for a while. What’s left behind are the teams that just don’t stand out — the really tough teams to judge. One second you can make an argument that the “over” is the right call.

Jacksonville Jaguars Odds to Win the Super Bowl
by Alan Matthews - 5/30/2014

We start our 2014 NFL team previews at the bottom with the longest shot by far to win the Super Bowl: the Jaguars. This is a franchise that hasn't had a winning record since 2007 and has totaled 11 wins the past three seasons. That obviously means high draft picks, but so far it looks like Jacksonville has whiffed. We obviously don't yet know what 2014 No. 3 overall pick Blake Bortles will be for a while.

NFL Season Win Totals: Sucker Bets
by Trevor Whenham - 5/28/2014

When it comes to NFL season win totals, there are some bets that the sportsbooks are just daring you to make. They throw the numbers out there like a trap, knowing it will catch tons of unsuspecting, and most likely doomed, public money. Oddsmakers know how the public is going to think in some situations, and they lay numbers out there to prey on their biases. They are sucker bets, and as handicappers our job is to be able to identify them as avoid them.

NFL Odds: Week 2 Matchup Power Rankings
by Alan Matthews - 5/27/2014

Week 2 of the 2014 season brings us a first: CBS' Thursday Night Football coverage, featuring Pittsburgh at Baltimore, although you can also still watch it on the NFL Network should you choose. If you have to play one of those short-week games, it's probably a benefit to get it out of the way so early in the season. Here's my rankings of each game for Week 2 with opening odds.

NFL Countdown to Kickoff: Season Win Totals Value Picks
by Dave Schwab - 5/26/2014

The majority of the big-name free agents have either resigned with their original team or found a new place to call home, and this year’s crop of top college prospects are with their new team via the recent draft. Even though the first regular-season game is still over three months away, this is traditionally the time of the year where oddsmakers release a host of team and player prop odds as well as their futures odds for a number of different categories.

2015 Possible Super Bowl Matchups: Early Odds
by George Monroy - 5/22/2014

With the 2014-15 NFL season steadily approaching, the oddsmakers have been working overtime since the schedule was released in mid-April. Most sportsbooks first released Week 1 lines, then games of the year lines, and now Week 2 through 16 lines. Doc’s Sports has already begun to take an in-depth look at the early spreads, so let’s continue that trend by going over Sportsbook.ag’s early 2015 Super Bowl matchup odds.

NFL Odds: Week 1 Matchup Power Rankings
by Alan Matthews - 5/22/2014

Now that odds for every single NFL regular-season game have been released by a few books, which is just terrific, I will start previewing each week of the season by ranking the games in order of strongest matchup to weakest. I'd like to say I will pick a winner in each side, but obviously injuries are fairly prevalent in the NFL, so there's no way to project past Week 1.

2014 NFL Odds Released for Every Game: Good Bet, Bad Bet
by George Monroy - 5/22/2014

The start of the 2014 NFL season is still over three months away, yet that has not stopped Cantor Gaming from releasing spreads for every single game of the season—excluding Week 17 because teams may rest players. Week 1 and games of the year lines have been out for quite some time. Now that the rest of the NFL betting picture has been filled in, bettors can finally start taking a closer look at the 2014 lines and figure where the value is for each week.

An Early Look at Week 1 NFL Odds in the NFC East
by Dave Schwab - 5/21/2014

Last NFL season I did a brief weekly preview of all the games in the NFC East along with my “NFC East Pick of the Week” using Doc’s Sports Unit Betting System. My goal before the season started was to return a profit of $1,000 on my picks, but I blew that number away with a record of 13-4 that provided a profit of $3,470 on a $100 wager.

Most Surprising Early NFL Lines for 2014-15 Season
by Trevor Whenham - 5/21/2014

Cantor Gaming has already, impressively, released lines for every game on the NFL schedule throughout the regular season. At first glance, there are seven lines over the first six weeks that stand out to me as being particularly surprising:

2014 NFL Odds: Taking a Closer Look at the Year’s Double-Digit Spreads
by George Monroy - 5/20/2014

In the NFL double-digit spreads can provide some of the best betting value in the sport. Many times teams will be so unevenly-matched that even a 14-point spread could have value on the favorite side simply because lines are rarely larger than two touchdowns. Other times underdogs have all the value because a single touchdown can erase seven points off the scoreboard in a hurry.