NFL Handicapping Articles
Free NFL Preseason Picks for Thursday Night Action
by CarbonSports - 8/21/2014
We've finally reached Week 3 of the NFL preseason and that means it's dress rehearsal time for these teams. Starting lineups will see the first half of action at minimum and we can get a better grasp on what to expect from all 32 NFL teams when the real games actually get going. This is still preseason though and results don't always matter to these teams, but with the Eagles yet to win so far in August, odds makers expect that to change tonight.
Handicapping Bovada’s 2,000-yard NFL Rushing Prop
by Trevor Whenham - 8/20/2014
When it comes to rushing yards in a season, 2,000 yards is an almost mythical barrier. Only seven running backs in history have surpassed the total, and only two — Adrian Peterson in 2012 and Chris Johnson in 2009 — have done so in the last decade. We aren’t exactly in a golden running era in the league — teams spend too much time passing for that — so when a running back puts up big numbers it is particularly impressive.
Handicapping Bovada’s Interesting NFL Passing Record Prop
by Trevor Whenham - 8/19/2014
Last year Peyton Manning rewrote the record books with his 5,477 passing yards. The new league record was obviously impressive. We live in a very pass-happy time, though, so it is not impossible to imagine that that record will be broken again. It’s certainly not in the realm of untouchable marks like Dimaggio’s 56-game hitting streak or Gretzky’s 92 goals in a season. In fact, Bovada has odds posted for breaking the record this year, and the “yes” side is at just +300 (the “no” side is favored at -400).
NFL Handicapping: Closer Look at Top 5 ATS Teams from Last Season
by Trevor Whenham - 8/18/2014
The one thing you can be sure of is that things in the NFL are always changing. It would be easy to handicap this league if teams that were strong against the spread one year stayed that way the next year. That obviously isn’t the case.
NFL Preseason Betting: Handicapping the Third Exhibition Game
by Trevor Whenham - 8/18/2014
I hate the NFL Preseason. It is dull. Misleading. Endless. It is a tease before the real season begins, and it just doesn’t mean enough to justify the time and effort involved in it. They could shorten it to two games, and the only ones who would shed a tear are the owners who get to sell full-price tickets to half-value games.
NFL Handicapping: Best and Worst Backup Quarterbacks
by Trevor Whenham - 8/18/2014
As the saying goes, when things are going poorly in football there is no player more popular than the backup QB. Even when things are going well, the backup QB is a crucially important position. Few things can be more disruptive for a team than the loss of a starter. As a handicapper we always live in fear of losing a starter we have bet on. Those fears can be eased substantially, though, when the backup is viable and can be trusted to step in and perform at a reasonable level.
NFL Handicapping: Preseason Warning Signs Bettors Should Heed
by Trevor Whenham - 8/18/2014
August is far too soon to worry about teams in the NFL. We still don’t know what teams are going to look like, and even teams with fairly obvious rosters are far from full intensity. The best thing you can do now is to relax and wait patiently for real games to start. That is easier said than done, though. We are bombarded with news and speculation out of training camps, and we can’t easily block it all out.
Monday Night Football Free Pick Cleveland at Washington
by CarbonSports - 8/18/2014
It may only be a preseason game, but you know ESPN has to love getting a matchup like this. We will hear plenty about QB's Johnny Manziel and Robert Griffin III throughout the night, but right now only the latter will be starting come Week 1 in September. Manziel still has time to make his case for the #1 spot and needs a strong performance tonight to help his cause, but will it be enough to get him and his teammates their first victory of the year?
NFL Handicapping: Pleasant Surprises from Training Camp
by Trevor Whenham - 8/15/2014
When NFL training camps begin we typically have an idea of how we expect teams to perform and what we expect to see in the weeks before the real games begin. Quite often we are right — at least that is what we hope. Sometimes, though, there are teams, or at least aspects of a team, that perform much better in training camps and the preseason than they were expected to.
NFL Preseason Picks: Saturday Odds and Predictions
by CarbonSports - 8/15/2014
The Bengals defense was absolutely torched last week, giving up 41 points in a two-point loss to the Chiefs. To be fair it wasn't all the defense's fault as Cincinnati gave up two INT's for touchdowns and the special teams allowed an 80-yard punt return to cash 7 points as well. However, all the talk in camp this week has been about playing much better defensively and keeping opponents off the scoresheet. They'll get their chance to do that tonight against a Jets team that is looking to be a much improved squad this season.
NFL Handicapping: Don’t Believe the Hype on these Training Camp Stories
by Trevor Whenham - 8/15/2014
We are, as a society, NFL crazy. There is no limit to the amount of news and coverage we can happily consume about the league. That often causes problems, because the truth is that there just isn’t enough to say a lot of the time to satisfy our hunger.
NFL Preseason Picks: Sunday Odds and Predictions
by CarbonSports - 8/15/2014
KC managed to win a wild one in Week 1 last week (41-39) against a Bengals team that they'll likely be battling with for a wildcard spot this year. We've got a long way to go until then, but the Chiefs looked offensively adept in their first action of 2014. They'll need it this week against a Carolina team that's eyeing a return to the playoffs themselves.
NFL Futures Odds: Most Passing Yards Quarterback Predictions
by CarbonSports - 8/15/2014
The NFL has clearly become a passing league over the past decade and without a good QB chances are making the playoffs is nothing more than a pipe dream. The last three seasons have all seen the eventual winner of this award eclipse the 5,000 passing yards mark and chances are we will see the same thing happen this season.
NFL Handicapping: Teams Primed for ATS Improvement
by Trevor Whenham - 8/14/2014
NFL teams that are coming off a lousy season against the spread probably crushed the hearts and souls of bettors who backed them regularly. The good news for bettors, though, is that some of these teams that were so lousy to bet on last year will improve significantly — at least in terms of ATS performance — this year. If the public is fixated on their poor performance last year then there could be some value to be had this year until the public catches up.
NFL Handicapping for the Top 6 Quarterbacks from the Draft
by Trevor Whenham - 8/14/2014
When the smoke had cleared there were 16 quarterbacks selected in the 2014 NFL Draft. Some will never make a roster, and many will never start a game. The average casual fan very likely couldn’t name half of the players who were chosen. The ones who went higher in the draft, though, will attract plenty of attention from those casual bettors.
2014 NFC South Predictions with Odds and NFL Betting Picks
by Robert Ferringo - 8/13/2014
In one of the stranger streaks in all of football, the NFC South still has never had a back-to-back division champion. That is 11 straight years of complete and utter chaos, worst-to-first shenanigans, and general Southern unpredictability. Given that Carolina, last year’s where-the-hell-did-they-come-from winner, has undergone a sizeable roster turnover this offseason I think it is reasonable to expect the South’s streak to be extended.
NFL Futures Betting: NFC North Season Win Totals Predictions
by CarbonSports - 8/11/2014
Green Bay has owned the NFC North for the past few years and they are favored to finish atop this division once again in 2014. Chicago, Minnesota and Detroit will have something to say about that but it's only one of those three teams that I believe present the best bets when looking at the season win totals for this division.
NFL Futures Odds: NFC East Season Win Totals Picks
by CarbonSports - 8/11/2014
With the likes of RGIII, Eli Manning, Chip Kelly's explosive offense, and the Dallas Cowboys all in the NFC East together you know this division will see plenty of headlines from the major media outlets. The past few years the winner of this division hasn't been known until the final games of Week 17 have been played. With that kind of parity, this division will be another tight one as Philadelphia tries to be the first team of these four to repeat as division champs since 2004.
2014 NFC East Predictions with Odds and NFL Betting Picks
by Robert Ferringo - 8/4/2014
The NFC East has been a puddle of mediocrity over the last two seasons and has sent just one representative to the NFC Championship Game over the last five years. The East has experienced back-to-back worst-to-first finishes. They’ve had just two teams in the last three years win double-digit games, and it has been four years since a team has won more than 10 contests.
2014 NFC West Predictions with Odds and NFL Betting Picks
by Robert Ferringo - 8/4/2014
It was just four short seasons ago that the NFC West became the butt of national sports jokes by producing the first division winner with a 7-9 record in league history. That was rock bottom for what had been the worst division in the league for nearly a decade.
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