NFL Handicapping Articles

NFL Handicapping: What Lies Ahead for Patriots and Seahawks
by Trevor Whenham - 2/5/2015

A few days have passed since the craziest Super Bowl in recent memory. The whole fourth quarter, and especially the final few seconds, don’t make any more sense now than they did at the time, but the excitement certainly hasn’t faded. We can’t dwell in the past, though — we have to keep looking forward. The Seahawks and the Patriots go into next season with a lot of respect — Seattle is favored to win next year’s Super Bowl, and New England is the second choice.

Super Bowl 50 Futures: Shopping for the Best Betting Odds
by Dave Schwab - 2/4/2015

The city of Boston is still trying to clear the streets of snow for a victory parade following New England’s stunning come-from-behind victory against Seattle in this NFL season’s Super Bowl, and most of the sportbooks have already posted their initial futures odds to win next season’s NFL Championship in Super Bowl 50.

2015 Pro Bowl Betting: Handicapping the NFL in Hawaii
by Trevor Whenham - 1/22/2015

I love sports, and I’ll watch pretty much anything. There is one big exception, though — I wouldn’t watch the Pro Bowl unless my life depended on it, and even then I would have to think about it. It’s a horrible game and a total waste of time and energy. Awful. The only thing that could only possibly salvage some shred of worth from the useless game, though, is that you can bet on it. I’m not proud — if there is value I’ll bet on something that I wouldn’t watch.

AFC Championship Game Handicapping: Keys for Betting
by Trevor Whenham - 1/14/2015

When we have a whole week to handicap just two football games like we do this week, it can be easy to get distracted by storylines that sound compelling but ultimately aren’t particularly meaningful from a betting perspective. It is important for handicappers, then, to be able to tell the difference between the key factors that will decide who wins and who loses and the distractions that will lead us away from the bets we need to make. In this year’s AFC Championship Game there is no shortage of both types of stories — the keys and the major distractions.

Early Super Bowl Pointspread: Which Conference Has the Advantage?
by George Monroy - 1/14/2015

The NFL is down to its final four teams with only two games remaining before the Super Bowl. Most bettors are probably focused on handicapping the matchups at hand and will turn their attention to the big game once Sunday’s results are known. Sportsbook.ag, however, already has a Super Bowl line posted on its site, and it installed the NFC as a three-point favorite over the AFC.

Betting on the NFC Championship Game: Handicapping Keys and Possible Distractions
by Trevor Whenham - 1/14/2015

The biggest challenge that football bettors face this week in the NFL may be that they have too much time. There are only two games to break down, and there are no college games to distract them. That makes it way too easy to get distracted by storylines that aren’t ultimately that significant to the outcome and not give the biggest storylines the most attention. In an attempt to help you stay on the straight and narrow leading up to the NFC Championship, scheduled for Sunday in Seattle, here are three of the biggest keys that will determine the outcome of the game and the three biggest distractions that are going to get much more attention than they warrant from a betting perspective:

NFL Championship Games Betting: Avoiding Public Bias
by Trevor Whenham - 1/13/2015

When you are handicapping any game you need to be aware of the potential public biases and the impact that that can have on how the lines are set and how they are move. The more betting attention a game gets, though — especially if that betting attention features a high proportion of uninformed and unsophisticated bettors — the more aware you need to be of the likely biases and what they mean for bettors. In the AFC and NFC Championship Games, then, public biases are going to play a massive role — second only to the Super Bowl in football betting.

NFL Handicapping: Rex Ryan to Coach the Buffalo Bills
by Trevor Whenham - 1/12/2015

The coaching carousel in the NFL has been an odd one. It seemed for a while like the Bills would be the last ones to hire a new coach. With a new owner they seemed content to sit back and learn as much as they could about their team and their needs before they made a decision. It also seemed like it could be a tough sell to bring in a coach given the chaos of the Marrone departure, the lack of a QB, and the fact that the team still plays in Buffalo.

NFL Totals Betting: Divisional Round Over and Under Predictions
by Dave Schwab - 1/7/2015

The total line for the Wild-Card Round of the NFL Playoffs was a mixed bag as one game went “over”, two stayed “under” and one ended as a “push”. I was on the wrong side of both of my free picks for Doc’s Sports, so it is back to the drawing board for this weekend’s Divisional Round of games.

NFL Playoffs Betting: Divisional-Round ATS Stats and Handicapping
by George Monroy - 1/7/2015

The NFL Playoffs are set to resume this Saturday with the final eight teams squaring off in the Divisional Round of the postseason. Every game seems to be the most intriguing matchup possible, each with built in story lines and rivalries ready to be explored. The New England Patriots, who have bad blood and recent history with the Baltimore Ravens, will play on Saturday, while two young and athletic quarterbacks will face off when Cam Newton and Russell Wilson lead the Carolina Panthers and Seattle Seahawks, respectively, in the late game.

Ranking the NFL Divisional-Round Playoff Games by Betting Attractiveness
by Trevor Whenham - 1/6/2015

Wild-Card weekend in the NFL delivered about what you would expect — some good football, a couple of surprises, a major controversy, and a total dud of a game. Now, though, the stakes start to really get high. The best teams in the league come off the sidelines, and the games promise to be wars. Unfortunately, this week’s action isn’t necessarily the tightest we have ever seen — all four games have spreads of at least six points.

NFL Props Odds and Predictions: Next Chicago Bears Coach
by Alan Matthews - 1/1/2015

There are currently six head coach openings in the NFL, each with plusses and minuses attached. The best job probably is in San Francisco, but the team has some key players up for free agency and it will be tough to follow in Jim Harbaugh's shoes.

NFL Totals Betting: Wild-Card Round Over and Under Predictions
by Dave Schwab - 12/31/2014

Anyone who has been riding the “under” the last three weeks of the NFL regular season has been cashing in on a regular basis. In Week 17 alone, the total stayed under in 11 of the 16 games on 5Dimes’ closing NFL betting odds. I caught that wave with the correct call on two “under” picks last week to raise my record on the year to 26-24-1 for my top three weekly total line plays for Doc’s Sports.

NFL Playoffs Betting: Ranking the Wild-Card Matchups
by Trevor Whenham - 12/29/2014

It took right up until the last game of the regular season was played, but we now know all of the matchups in the NFL Playoffs. I don’t want to sound ungrateful, but surely I’m not the only one who is far from inspired by the group of wild-card games that we are facing. None are truly awful, but there isn’t one that is a must-see game that I just can’t wait to watch. Of course, I’ll still watch and bet on the games — not going to forego that for anything. Here is how I rank the four games this coming weekend in terms of betting interest:

Expert NFL Betting Picks: Weekly NFC East Predictions Week 17
by Dave Schwab - 12/24/2014

The last three seasons the NFC East Division title went right down to the wire with a head-to-head showdown for the crown in a Week 17 matchup. There is no such drama this time around as Dallas has finally come through with a strong December performance to clinch the division at 11-4 on the year. I am happy to say that I got back to my winning ways in my NFC East ‘pick of the week’ with the correct call in New York’s win over St. Louis in last Sunday’s action.

NFL Totals Betting: Week 17 Over and Under Predictions
by Dave Schwab - 12/24/2014

For the second week in a row the “under” had the edge in the NFL with nine of 16 games staying under 5Dimes closing betting odds. For the second week in a row I came up on the wrong of my top three total line picks for Doc’s Sports at 1-2, but I am still clinging to a winning record on the year at 24-23-1.

NFL Football Predictions: Week 17 Opening Line Report and Picks
by Alan Matthews - 12/23/2014

Plenty of drama heading into the final Sunday of the 2014 regular season with one wild-card spot open in the AFC and three division titles still up for grabs in the NFC. Two NFC divisions will be decided in head-to-head matchups: Carolina at Atlanta for the sorry South Division -- the only playoff spot still up for grabs in the NFC -- and Detroit at Green Bay for the North.

NFL Teasers Betting: Best Basic Strategy Options for Week 16
by George Monroy - 12/18/2014

The NFL season is winding down just when basic strategy teaser bets are starting to get hot. The wagers, which are two-team, six-point teasers, went 2-0-1 last week and pushed their five-week record to an excellent 12-1-1 mark. Basic strategy teasers are bets that take advantage of the power of the most common margin of victories during NFL games, which happen to be three and seven, and move certain spreads around those markers.

NFL Handicapping: Dealing with Eliminated Teams
by Trevor Whenham - 12/18/2014

Heading into Week 16 of NFL action there are 11 teams that have been officially eliminated from playoff contention. The challenge for bettors is that not all eliminated teams act the same, and they can’t all be treated the same in their last two games. It would be easy if we could just make a blanket statement about what can be expected and bet accordingly, but sports betting is never easy. What we can do, though — at least in general terms — is categorize teams that are out of the playoff picture into four general groups.

NFL Totals Betting: Week 16 Over and Under Predictions
by Dave Schwab - 12/17/2014

The “under” dominated the betting results on the total line last week in the NFL with 12 of the 16 games staying under on 5Dimes closing betting odds. I fell to 1-2 with Week 15’s total line picks for Doc’s Sports after going a perfect 3-0 the week before. The net result is a year-to-date record of 23-21-1 heading into this week’s games.