NFL Handicapping Articles

NFL Odds: Analyzing Atlanta Falcons' 2016 Road Schedule
by Alan Matthews - 6/2/2016

Just like you shouldn't get overly excited about a Major League Baseball team's surprising success the first two months of the season, you also probably shouldn't read too much into what an NFL team until at least mid-October. I give you the 2015 Atlanta Falcons as proof of that. Under first-year coach Dan Quinn, the former Seattle Seahawks defensive coordinator, the Falcons started 5-0, looked like a Super Bowl contender and Quinn was an early favorite for NFL Coach of the Year.

NFL Odds: Analyzing Indianapolis Colts' 2016 Road Schedule
by Alan Matthews - 6/1/2016

Is the bloom off the rose a little bit when it comes to Colts quarterback Andrew Luck? Financially, probably not. At some point soon and certainly before training camp begins, the Colts are expected to make Luck the highest-paid player in league history as he's in the final year of his rookie deal.

NFL Odds: Analyzing Green Bay Packers' 2016 Road Schedule
by Alan Matthews - 5/30/2016

When you look at any list of coaching hot seats in the NFL for the coming season, there are the usual list of candidates: Cincinnati's Marvin Lewis, Dallas' Jason Garrett, San Diego's Mike McCoy, Jacksonville's Gus Bradley, L.A.'s Jeff Fisher and Buffalo's Rex Ryan.

NFL Odds: Analyzing Pittsburgh Steelers' 2016 Road Schedule
by Alan Matthews - 5/27/2016

Is this the season when we finally see what that high-powered Steelers offense can do with star running back Le'Veon Bell healthy for the playoffs? In 2014, Bell was hurt in Week 17 and missed Pittsburgh's home wild-card game against hated rival Baltimore. Bell's absence was very clear as the Steelers lost 30-17. Last year, Bell was lost around midseason to injury, but Pittsburgh was able to back into the playoffs as a wild-card team with a 10-6 record, winning a tiebreaker against the Jets.

NFL Win Total Picks: Toughest Odds to Bet On
by Trevor Whenham - 5/27/2016

It's a great time of year every NFL offseason when the first NFL season win totals are released. After the overhyped ridiculousness of the draft it's a chance to get back to the real work of analyzing and evaluating teams as a whole. When I look at the win totals for the first time every year there are some that stand out as easy to call - they seem almost obvious.

NFL Odds: Analyzing Philadelphia Eagles' 2016 Road Schedule
by Alan Matthews - 5/26/2016

Count me among those who thought the Philadelphia Eagles' hiring of Oregon head coach Chip Kelly in January 2013 was something that was going to alter the NFL landscape. I absolutely believed that Kelly's unique offense would become the new "thing" in the NFL.

NFL Season Win Totals Predictions: Sucker Bets
by Trevor Whenham - 5/26/2016

This is one of my favorite times of the year - at least from an NFL betting perspective. The first meaningful NFL season win totals of the year were posted last week, so we have a chance to look at them, see if there are any nice opportunities for value - which is very doubtful - and generally analyze them to death. It's the most interesting football analysis we have gotten to do in a long time. When you look at the win totals, there inevitably some bets that stand out as clear and obvious sucker bets. Here are five (All odds are from Bovada):

NFL Odds: Analyzing New York Jets' 2016 Road Schedule
by Alan Matthews - 5/25/2016

I'm going in a certain order when previewing each team's road and then home schedules this season, and I don't want to disrupt that. I am mentioning this because at this moment it's not the best time to preview anything involving the New York Jets for 2016 because I don't know who their starting quarterback will be.

NFL Odds: Analyzing Arizona Cardinals' 2016 Road Schedule
by Alan Matthews - 5/24/2016

I am honestly not sure what to expect from the Arizona Cardinals entering this season. They made a brilliant move in 2013 in hiring Bruce Arians as their head coach and have won at least 10 games each season since. Last year they won a surprising 13 regular-season games in taking the NFC West title -- I definitely had Seattle winning that division again.

NFL Odds: Analyzing Denver Broncos' 2016 Road Schedule
by Alan Matthews - 5/23/2016

I probably don't need to tell you that winning a Super Bowl is expensive. By that I mean teams now lose key players after winning a Super Bowl because they can't afford them in free agency. It's a copycat league. The salary cap is largely why no team has repeated as Super Bowl champion since the New England Patriots in the 2003-04 seasons. And I don't expect that the Denver Broncos will be able to do so this coming season.

NFL Odds: Analyzing Carolina Panthers' 2016 Road Schedule
by Alan Matthews - 5/20/2016

Carolina head coach Ron Rivera entered the 2015 regular season a bit on the hot seat. Sure, his team had won the division title for a second straight year in 2014, but that was with a laughable 7-8-1 record. I gave the Panthers not much of a shot to win a third straight NFC South title once No. 1 receiver Kelvin Benjamin went down with a season-ending injury last summer. That left arguably the worst group of receivers south of Cleveland. Cam Newton had to struggle, right?

Raiders Proposed Move to Las Vegas a Sham Perpetuated by NFL Owners
by Robert Ferringo - 5/20/2016

Spoiler alert: the Raiders aren't moving to Las Vegas. Look, we're in football purgatory right now. Mini-camp action just doesn't get the blood pumping and training camp is still a couple months away. And every year there are one or two garbage stories that dominate the mindless, awkwardness-breaking football small talk circuit that permeates summer barbeque season. This year the Raiders' "potential" move to Las Vegas is one of those stories, and in recent weeks we've been inundated with articles, think pieces, and even odds on whether or not the move will actually happen.

NFL Odds: Analyzing Houston Texans' 2016 Road Schedule
by Alan Matthews - 5/19/2016

Despite using four quarterbacks overall themselves due to injury and ineffectiveness during the season, the not exactly sterling quartet of Brian Hoyer, Ryan Mallett, T.J. Yates and Brandon Weeden (only Weeden remains but as a third-stringer), the Texans finished 9-7 and won the division for the first time since 2012. They did it largely on the strength of their defense, led by the incomparable J.J. Watt, who won yet another NFL Defensive Player of the Year Award.

NFL Odds: Analyzing Minnesota Vikings' 2016 Road Schedule
by Alan Matthews - 5/18/2016

I'll give credit where it's due. A lot of well-known NFL experts were on the Minnesota bandwagon entering last season. I thought the Vikings might contend for a wild-card spot but didn't trust Teddy Bridgewater or his receiving group a heck of a lot and thought the NFC North title was a pipe dream. Plus, who knew what Adrian Peterson would be after missing all but one game of the 2015 season due to suspension.

NFL Odds: Analyzing Cincinnati Bengals' 2016 Road Schedule
by Alan Matthews - 5/17/2016

OK, how much longer can the Cincinnati Bengals keep Marvin Lewis as their head coach? Yes, I understand the team is having unprecedented regular-season success under Lewis. He is 112-94-2 in the regular season there and Cincinnati has made the playoffs five straight seasons, easily the longest stretch in team history.

NFL Odds: Analyzing Washington Redskins' 2016 Road Schedule
by Alan Matthews - 5/13/2016

Entering last season, Washington coach Jay Gruden was the betting favorite to be the first NFL coach fired. And I thought it would be either him or Miami's Joe Philbin -- it turned out to be Philbin. Gruden now seems to have job security after leading the Redskins to a 9-7 record in 2015 and a surprising NFC East title. He also doesn't have to worry about the fact that Robert Griffin III was buddies with owner Dan Snyder any longer. Gruden didn't use RGII at all last season and the former Offensive Rookie of the Year is now in Cleveland.

NFL Odds: Analyzing New England Patriots' 2016 Road Schedule
by Alan Matthews - 5/12/2016

Welcome to my first schedule analysis for the upcoming 2016 NFL season. That I'm starting these means the NBA and NHL seasons are winding down and we are entering the slow period of the NFL calendar. But it also means that training camps aren't too far off.

2016 NFL Odds: Carolina Panthers Week-by-Week Betting Predictions
by George Monroy - 5/10/2016

The 2016 NFL season is still a few months away. However, the weekly spreads have already been released, and the Carolina Panthers are expected to dominate the NFC once again. The defending conference champions were thoroughly embarrassed by the Denver Broncos during the Super Bowl, yet the team is still filled with young talent and an elite quarterback who may be looking for revenge. Carolina has already been installed as a favorite in all but one of its games-a Week 13 road matchup against Seattle-and if 2016 ends up anything like 2015, the Panthers will be one of the best ATS bets in the league.

Betting Odds and Free Picks 2016 NFL Early Props
by Dave Schwab - 5/9/2016

The 2016 NFL Draft is in the books, which opens the door to the time of the NFL offseason when sportsbooks will start to release betting odds for things such as NFL Week 1 lines, projected win totals and division titles. MyBookie has taken things a bit farther on its current NFL offseason betting board with a trio of prop bet odds for some individual awards.

NFL Odds and Predictions: 2016 Offensive Rookie of the Year Picks
by Alan Matthews - 5/6/2016

Now that free agency is over for the most part and the draft has concluded, we have hit the dreaded dead zone in terms of NFL news. Sure, you might see a big injury during OTAs or surprise player release over the next few months, but for the most part things calm down until teams report to training camp in July. Trust me, this is when most NFL beat writers take their vacations.