NFL Handicapping Articles

NFL Odds: Analyzing Jacksonville Jaguars' 2016 Road Schedule
by Alan Matthews - 6/15/2016

If I had $1.6 billion lying around or whatever, I think I might make an offer on the Jacksonville Jaguars because this is a franchise I believe is definitely on the rise. It's going to finally be a contender in the AFC South again in 2016 and eventually this will be the team that moves to London, which will only add value. I've been to Jacksonville several times, and there's no need for an NFL franchise there (or another Super Bowl). The Tampa Bay Bucs and Atlanta Falcons both aren't that far away.

NFL Odds: Analyzing Detroit Lions' 2016 Road Schedule
by Alan Matthews - 6/13/2016

I am from Michigan so I know a lot of Detroit Lions fans. I only mention this because sometimes winning can be a bad thing. How's that? The Lions lost their first five games last season and seven of their first eight heading into their bye week. The season was over. Might as well tank and try to get the No. 1 pick in the draft and finish last in the NFC North and get a last-place schedule -- so said most Lions fans. During that bye, the team fired GM Martin Mayhew and president Tom Lewand.

NFL Odds: Analyzing Baltimore Ravens' 2016 Road Schedule
by Alan Matthews - 6/10/2016

A few national experts I respect greatly picked the Baltimore Ravens to make last season's Super Bowl. I didn't agree with them, but it wouldn't have shocked me. Instead, the Ravens plummeted to a 5-11 record, their first losing season under Coach John Harbaugh and worst record since 2007. I am not sure I've seen a potential Super Bowl contender have worse luck, both in terms of close losses and injuries, than what happened to Baltimore last year.

NFL Odds: Analyzing New York Giants' 2016 Road Schedule
by Alan Matthews - 6/9/2016

If the New York Giants could have simply won a few close games last year, they might have won the really mediocre NFC East Division and former head coach Tom Coughlin might still have his job. But close games killed this team all year and it finished 6-10.

NFL Odds: Analyzing Buffalo Bills' 2016 Road Schedule
by Alan Matthews - 6/8/2016

The Toronto Blue Jays ended the longest active playoff drought in Major League Baseball in 2015. The neighboring Buffalo Bills, who used to play one game a season in Toronto, weren't able to stop the NFL's longest drought (last postseason trip was in 1999) as they finished with an 8-8 record and third in the AFC East -- although I can make the argument that the Bills were the second-best team in the division because they swept the Dolphins and the Jets.

NFL Odds: Analyzing Seattle Seahawks' 2016 Road Schedule
by Alan Matthews - 6/6/2016

After winning back-to-back NFC titles, the Seattle Seahawks were the betting favorites to make it a threepeat when last season opened. As they should have been. But really we all should have known better. It's rare enough these days for a Super Bowl loser to simply make the playoffs the next season, much less return to the big game.

NFL Odds: Analyzing Kansas City Chiefs' 2016 Road Schedule
by Alan Matthews - 6/3/2016

I was dead wrong on the 2015 Kansas City Chiefs. Sure, I thought the Chiefs were a borderline wild-card contender entering the season because they had what looked to be a very good defense and one of the NFL's best all-around running backs in Jamaal Charles. I definitely wasn't a fan of quarterback Alex Smith or the team's receiving corps, even after adding former Philadelphia Eagle Jeremy Maclin in free agency.

NFL Odds: Analyzing Atlanta Falcons' 2016 Road Schedule
by Alan Matthews - 6/2/2016

Just like you shouldn't get overly excited about a Major League Baseball team's surprising success the first two months of the season, you also probably shouldn't read too much into what an NFL team until at least mid-October. I give you the 2015 Atlanta Falcons as proof of that. Under first-year coach Dan Quinn, the former Seattle Seahawks defensive coordinator, the Falcons started 5-0, looked like a Super Bowl contender and Quinn was an early favorite for NFL Coach of the Year.

NFL Odds: Analyzing Indianapolis Colts' 2016 Road Schedule
by Alan Matthews - 6/1/2016

Is the bloom off the rose a little bit when it comes to Colts quarterback Andrew Luck? Financially, probably not. At some point soon and certainly before training camp begins, the Colts are expected to make Luck the highest-paid player in league history as he's in the final year of his rookie deal.

NFL Odds: Analyzing Green Bay Packers' 2016 Road Schedule
by Alan Matthews - 5/30/2016

When you look at any list of coaching hot seats in the NFL for the coming season, there are the usual list of candidates: Cincinnati's Marvin Lewis, Dallas' Jason Garrett, San Diego's Mike McCoy, Jacksonville's Gus Bradley, L.A.'s Jeff Fisher and Buffalo's Rex Ryan.

NFL Odds: Analyzing Pittsburgh Steelers' 2016 Road Schedule
by Alan Matthews - 5/27/2016

Is this the season when we finally see what that high-powered Steelers offense can do with star running back Le'Veon Bell healthy for the playoffs? In 2014, Bell was hurt in Week 17 and missed Pittsburgh's home wild-card game against hated rival Baltimore. Bell's absence was very clear as the Steelers lost 30-17. Last year, Bell was lost around midseason to injury, but Pittsburgh was able to back into the playoffs as a wild-card team with a 10-6 record, winning a tiebreaker against the Jets.

NFL Win Total Picks: Toughest Odds to Bet On
by Trevor Whenham - 5/27/2016

It's a great time of year every NFL offseason when the first NFL season win totals are released. After the overhyped ridiculousness of the draft it's a chance to get back to the real work of analyzing and evaluating teams as a whole. When I look at the win totals for the first time every year there are some that stand out as easy to call - they seem almost obvious.

NFL Odds: Analyzing Philadelphia Eagles' 2016 Road Schedule
by Alan Matthews - 5/26/2016

Count me among those who thought the Philadelphia Eagles' hiring of Oregon head coach Chip Kelly in January 2013 was something that was going to alter the NFL landscape. I absolutely believed that Kelly's unique offense would become the new "thing" in the NFL.

NFL Season Win Totals Predictions: Sucker Bets
by Trevor Whenham - 5/26/2016

This is one of my favorite times of the year - at least from an NFL betting perspective. The first meaningful NFL season win totals of the year were posted last week, so we have a chance to look at them, see if there are any nice opportunities for value - which is very doubtful - and generally analyze them to death. It's the most interesting football analysis we have gotten to do in a long time. When you look at the win totals, there inevitably some bets that stand out as clear and obvious sucker bets. Here are five (All odds are from Bovada):

NFL Odds: Analyzing New York Jets' 2016 Road Schedule
by Alan Matthews - 5/25/2016

I'm going in a certain order when previewing each team's road and then home schedules this season, and I don't want to disrupt that. I am mentioning this because at this moment it's not the best time to preview anything involving the New York Jets for 2016 because I don't know who their starting quarterback will be.

NFL Odds: Analyzing Arizona Cardinals' 2016 Road Schedule
by Alan Matthews - 5/24/2016

I am honestly not sure what to expect from the Arizona Cardinals entering this season. They made a brilliant move in 2013 in hiring Bruce Arians as their head coach and have won at least 10 games each season since. Last year they won a surprising 13 regular-season games in taking the NFC West title -- I definitely had Seattle winning that division again.

NFL Odds: Analyzing Denver Broncos' 2016 Road Schedule
by Alan Matthews - 5/23/2016

I probably don't need to tell you that winning a Super Bowl is expensive. By that I mean teams now lose key players after winning a Super Bowl because they can't afford them in free agency. It's a copycat league. The salary cap is largely why no team has repeated as Super Bowl champion since the New England Patriots in the 2003-04 seasons. And I don't expect that the Denver Broncos will be able to do so this coming season.

NFL Odds: Analyzing Carolina Panthers' 2016 Road Schedule
by Alan Matthews - 5/20/2016

Carolina head coach Ron Rivera entered the 2015 regular season a bit on the hot seat. Sure, his team had won the division title for a second straight year in 2014, but that was with a laughable 7-8-1 record. I gave the Panthers not much of a shot to win a third straight NFC South title once No. 1 receiver Kelvin Benjamin went down with a season-ending injury last summer. That left arguably the worst group of receivers south of Cleveland. Cam Newton had to struggle, right?

Raiders Proposed Move to Las Vegas a Sham Perpetuated by NFL Owners
by Robert Ferringo - 5/20/2016

Spoiler alert: the Raiders aren't moving to Las Vegas. Look, we're in football purgatory right now. Mini-camp action just doesn't get the blood pumping and training camp is still a couple months away. And every year there are one or two garbage stories that dominate the mindless, awkwardness-breaking football small talk circuit that permeates summer barbeque season. This year the Raiders' "potential" move to Las Vegas is one of those stories, and in recent weeks we've been inundated with articles, think pieces, and even odds on whether or not the move will actually happen.

NFL Odds: Analyzing Houston Texans' 2016 Road Schedule
by Alan Matthews - 5/19/2016

Despite using four quarterbacks overall themselves due to injury and ineffectiveness during the season, the not exactly sterling quartet of Brian Hoyer, Ryan Mallett, T.J. Yates and Brandon Weeden (only Weeden remains but as a third-stringer), the Texans finished 9-7 and won the division for the first time since 2012. They did it largely on the strength of their defense, led by the incomparable J.J. Watt, who won yet another NFL Defensive Player of the Year Award.