NFL Handicapping Articles

Expert NFL Betting Advice: Best and Worst Backup Quarterbacks
by Trevor Whenham - 8/21/2017

A team's backup is like a heart surgeon. You hope you never have to get to know who they are, but when you need one it usually happens suddenly and you really hope they are good at their job. The NFL has their choice of every college football quarterback there is, so it is consistently amazing to me that there aren't enough good backups to go around. Heck, there aren't enough good starters to go around, either, but that's a different story.

Expert NFL Handicapping: Teams that Could Be Worse ATS in 2017
by Trevor Whenham - 8/20/2017

There are 32 teams in the NFL, and only 14 of them were profitable against the spread over the course of the whole season last year. Needless to say, it is tough for teams to consistently grow the bankrolls of bettors. We can't know with any certainty which teams will be profitable - though we are certainly working hard to figure it out. What I do know without any hesitation at all, though, is that all 14 teams that were profitable last year won't be profitable this year. Some will but far from all.

Expert NFL Betting Advice: Teams That Could Improve Against the Spread
by Trevor Whenham - 8/18/2017

There were a lot of teams in the NFL that were not much fun to bet on last year. Eighteen of the 32 teams in the league were not profitable if you bet on them in every game they played. Not surprisingly, many of those teams weren't very good at football. Not many bettors are going to bet on every game a team plays - not many good bettors, anyway. Still, it can be very useful for bettors to identify teams that are likely to improve significantly against the spread from where they were last year. That can be one of the easiest ways to identify opportunities for profit - especially if the teams are likely to be more improved than the public expects them to be.

2017 Baltimore Ravens Home Schedule Odds with Expert Picks and Predictions
by Alan Matthews - 8/18/2017

While I'm not Peter King or Jay Glazer, I consider myself very well-informed when it comes to the NFL each season. Hey, I read Peter King and Jay Glazer (and many others)! But I'll just be honest here in saying I have absolutely no idea what to expect from the 2017 Baltimore Ravens largely because no team has been more gutted by injuries thus far (Miami is in the conversation too).

2017 New York Giants Home Schedule Odds with Expert Picks and Predictions
by Alan Matthews - 8/17/2017

The New York Giants focused almost entirely on their defense last offseason, and it worked wonders on that unit, which largely carried Big Blue to an 11-5 record and its first playoff berth since upsetting New England in Super Bowl XLVI - the last real highlight of the Tom Coughlin Era.

2017 Miami Dolphins Home Schedule Odds with Expert Picks and Predictions
by Alan Matthews - 8/16/2017

I was frankly skeptical that the Miami Dolphins were going to reach the playoffs again after going 10-6 last year and getting to the postseason for the first time since 2008 - which also happens to be the year Tom Brady blew out his knee in Week 1 and the last time the Patriots didn't win the AFC East. I'm certainly more skeptical in the wake of Miami quarterback Ryan Tannehill's knee injury that has ended his season.

2017 Green Bay Packers Season Win Total Picks
by Robert Ferringo - 8/16/2017

Aaron Rodgers put on one of the all-time great quarterback displays for about three months last season and carried Green Bay to the cusp of the Super Bowl. As long as Rodgers is still under center, the Packers have to be considered one of the favorites to win the NFC and a legit Super Bowl threat. But will (or more importantly can) absolutely anyone on the Packers roster raise their level of play to match Rodgers? If not, it's been proven over the past two "underachieving" seasons that Rodgers can only carry this team so far.

2017 Seattle Seahawks Season Win Total Picks
by Robert Ferringo - 8/16/2017

By making the playoffs five straight seasons, winning and losing a Super Bowl along the way, and taking part in the postseason in 11 of the past 14 years, Seattle has solidified itself among the best and most consistent franchises in the NFL so far this century. And with the foundation of this current Seahawks group still intact, there is nothing to suggest that they won't continue to be a force in the NFC.

2017 Minnesota Vikings Season Win Total Picks
by Robert Ferringo - 8/16/2017

Things went sideways awfully quick for the Vikings last year. Hopes were high coming off their 2015 playoff appearance. But then Teddy Bridgewater's leg exploded in the preseason and sent this squad scrambling. They managed to find a capable replacement on the fly with Sam Bradford and actually started the season 5-0. But then Mike Zimmer's eye issues flared up, offensive coordinator Norv Turner quit, injuries started to mount, and Minnesota was forced to drag its carcass through a 3-8 close and a .500 record.

2017 Chicago Bears Season Win Total Picks
by Robert Ferringo - 8/16/2017

For the last eight years the Chicago Bears experienced relative "stability" at the quarterback position by employing one of the worst in the game. But finally, mercifully, Jay Cutler ended his injury-prone stay in the Windy City, fleeing for retirement (and then Miami; but not in that order) and taking his nonexistent leadership skills and turnover-happy style with him. Yet now the Bears find themselves in unfamiliar - yet completely familiar - territory: smack-dab in the middle of a quarterback controversy.

2017 San Francisco 49ers Season Win Total Picks
by Robert Ferringo - 8/16/2017

San Francisco has been floundering since the 49ers' ridiculous schism from John Harbaugh following the 2014 season. After one season of comically inept Jim Tomsula, the 49ers tried to get crafty, bringing in Chip Kelly. That went about as well as expected, with Kelly's utterly ill-fitting scheme leading to a 2-14 campaign. The 49ers wisely decided to move on from Kelly after just one year.

2017 Detroit Lions Season Win Total Picks
by Robert Ferringo - 8/16/2017

How the Lions perform this season will likely come down to two things: how the much-maligned offensive line holds up and how their linebackers perform. But how you feel about the Lions heading into this season really comes down to one thing: how you think of quarterback Matt Stafford. Where is Stafford on the spectrum of NFL quarterbacks? This guy has thrown for 27,000 yards over the last six seasons.

2017 Arizona Cardinals Season Win Total Picks
by Robert Ferringo - 8/16/2017

Last year at this time I felt the Cardinals had one of the best rosters in football and that they were a true Super Bowl threat. Things didn't work out that way. Instead Arizona suffered through an incredibly frustrating, underachieving season that left them below .500 but also below the radar coming into 2017.

2017 Los Angeles Rams Season Win Total Picks
by Robert Ferringo - 8/16/2017

If HBO's "Hard Knocks" did anything last year it was pull back the curtain on the fact that the Rams were going to be awful in their first season in Los Angeles. They were exactly that, winning just four times and being outscored by nearly 11 points per game. That debacle led to the firing of coach Jeff Fisher, and now the Rams are attempting to sell a fresh start to their fractured fan base for the second season in a row.

2017 Atlanta Falcons Season Win Total Picks
by Robert Ferringo - 8/14/2017

It is going to be there through every snap and every second of their season this year. Every fan is thinking about it. Every commentator is talking about it. There is no escaping the fact that the Atlanta Falcons should be entering this 2017 season as surprise Super Bowl champions. Instead they are entering it as the victims of the biggest choke in NFL history.

2017 Carolina Panthers Season Win Total Picks
by Robert Ferringo - 8/14/2017

We've all fallen victim to a savage hangover before. And one of sports' worst hangovers bit the Panthers last year: the Super Bowl hangover. Carolina saw its 2015 win total reduced by more than half, tumbling from 15 wins down to just six. The Panthers had their streak of three straight division titles snapped last year and were essentially a nonfactor just months after falling in the Super Bowl.

2017 New York Giants Season Win Total Picks
by Robert Ferringo - 8/14/2017

The Giants have traditionally been one of the easiest teams in the NFL to handicap. When they are posted as an underdog or not expected to do anything they always show up and overperform. And when they are faced with expectations and heaped with hype they always manage to underachieve.

2017 New Orleans Saints Season Win Total Picks
by Robert Ferringo - 8/14/2017

Sean Payton is moving dangerously close to Jeff Fisher territory. Payton, owner of a 94-66 career record and a Super Bowl title, has now led the Saints to a 7-9 record in three straight seasons, and, if you include the 2012 season in which Payton was banned, New Orleans has suffered a losing mark in four of the last five years.

2017 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Season Win Total Picks
by Robert Ferringo - 8/14/2017

I was ahead of the curve last year, jumping on the value of the Tampa Bay Bucs as an under-the-radar money team in 2016. They proved me sage, finishing 9-7 on the season and easily eclipsing their 2016 Las Vegas season win total. Now the word is out on the Bucs. Some splashy free agent signings and a tour on HBO's "Hard Knocks" has cast an even brighter spotlight on this squad.

2017 Seattle Seahawks Home Schedule Odds with Expert Picks and Predictions
by Alan Matthews - 8/11/2017

Can you call a team underachieving if it makes the playoffs five years in a row and has won a Super Bowl in that stretch? I suppose not, but it sure feels like the Seahawks should have more than one ring - we all know they should but for one fateful play call in Super Bowl XLIX. It seems to me that this team's championship window is closer to shutting than remaining open for the rest of the decade. But it could have one more run in it.