NFL Handicapping Articles

2018 Detroit Lions Road Schedule Odds with Expert Picks and Predictions
by Alan Matthews - 6/21/2018

This writer grew up in Michigan but roots against that state's professional sports franchises in a big way. That said, you almost have to feel sorry for the fans of the four major Detroit sports teams as it's a low point for that city right now.

2018 Kansas City Chiefs Road Schedule Odds with Expert Picks and Predictions
by Alan Matthews - 6/20/2018

I've never been a fan of quarterback Alex Smith. I Believe he can win you regular-season games because he generally doesn't lose them by turning the ball over. Smith is also the definition of a game manager and not good enough to win playoff contests.

2018 Dallas Cowboys Road Schedule Odds with Expert Picks and Predictions
by Alan Matthews - 6/14/2018

The Dallas Cowboy who had the best 2017 season? I'd say Tony Romo. Of course, the all-time leading passer in franchise history got hurt again in the 2016 preseason and lost his job to then-rookie Dak Prescott. There were a few teams that wanted Romo to play for them in 2017, but he opted to retire and join CBS' No. 1 NFL team alongside Jim Nantz. Romo turned out to be fantastic in the booth.

2018 Buffalo Bills Road Schedule Odds with Expert Picks and Predictions
by Alan Matthews - 6/13/2018

Seattle Mariners, the monkey is yours! By that we mean monkey on the proverbial back for the longest playoff drought in the four major American sports leagues. That "honor" had belonged to the Buffalo Bills, who hadn't played extra football entering 2017 since 1999 - when Doug Flutie was their quarterback.

2018 Los Angeles Rams Road Schedule Odds with Expert Picks and Predictions
by Alan Matthews - 6/7/2018

Excluding the New England Patriots, who have been good every year since Tom Brady took over as the starter, there's always one "it" team entering an NFL season that bettors hammer on Super Bowl futures. Entering 2017, it was probably the Oakland Raiders, but they flopped to a 6-10 record and fired their head coach.

2018 Jacksonville Jaguars Road Schedule Odds with Expert Picks and Predictions
by Alan Matthews - 6/6/2018

With all due respect to the Philadelphia Eagles, the biggest surprise team in the NFL in 2017 was Jacksonville. I actually was on the Jaguars to be a breakout team in 2016, but they skidded to a 3-13 record because Blake Bortles sucks. That was the Jags' sixth straight year winning five games or fewer.

2018 NFL MVP Odds with Expert Betting Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 6/5/2018

Ten of the last 11 winners of the NFL MVP award have been quarterbacks - Adrian Peterson in 2012 was the lone exception. So, it comes as little surprise, then, that the non-QB with the lowest odds in 2018 NFL MVP futures is Le'Veon Bell at +300, which places him behind 13 starting quarterbacks. Very few people seem to think that anyone who isn't a QB will win the award this year, and given the field and the trends of voters they are probably right. But which QB? Let's look through the top 10 players for potential value (Odds are from MyBookie.ag):

2018 New Orleans Saints Road Schedule Odds with Expert Picks and Predictions
by Alan Matthews - 5/31/2018

Want proof that one draft class can alter the shape of your franchise - even if you didn't land a franchise quarterback in said class? I give you the 2017 New Orleans Saints. Coach Sean Payton was considered on the hot seat entering last year with his team coming off three straight 7-9 seasons. Most expected more of the same, but the Saints' 2017 draft class was absolutely amazing - led by NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Alvin Kamara (No. 67 overall pick from Tennessee) and Defensive Rookie of the Year Marshon Lattimore (No. 11 overall from Ohio State).

2018 Pittsburgh Steelers Road Schedule Odds with Expert Picks and Predictions
by Alan Matthews - 5/30/2018

Ben Roethlisberger is the greatest quarterback in Steelers history - yes, Terry Bradshaw has won two more Super Bowl rings, but the overall statistics aren't close - and is a first-ballot Hall of Famer someday. But, man, is Big Ben starting to sound like a whiner, and I know more than a few Steelers fans who are tired of his act. For the past couple of years, Roethlisberger has hinted at retiring.

NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Odds and Expert Betting Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 5/25/2018

It took a long while, but MyBookie has finally posted odds for the Defensive Rookie of the Year. We discussed the offensive ROY battle right after the Draft, but this race is much deeper and much more interesting. We are looking at the Top 7 guys on the odds board here, but there are six or eight more that you could easily make a case for - and one long shot who stands out who we'll look at, too. This is going to be a very fun race to watch.

2018 Minnesota Vikings Road Schedule Odds with Expert Picks and Predictions
by Alan Matthews - 5/24/2018

Minnesota was 6-2 on the road last season (best in division), 5-3 against the spread and 4-4 "over/under." The Vikings travel to three playoff teams from 2017: LA Rams, Philadelphia and New England. The road schedule looks way harder than at home with it also including perennial playoff team Seattle. I project the Vikings to go 4-4 on the road. Odds listed for the home team.

2018 New England Patriots Road Schedule Odds with Expert Picks and Predictions
by Alan Matthews - 5/23/2018

Is this the year the New England Patriots' dynasty ends? I think there is a legitimate chance the answer is "yes" and that the team's trade of Jimmy Garoppolo, made basically because Tom Brady was whining about it, is going to really start to hurt this franchise.

2018 Philadelphia Eagles Road Schedule Odds with Expert Picks and Predictions
by Alan Matthews - 5/16/2018

It's that time of year again! The NBA playoffs are down to the conference finals, the NFL Draft is in the rear-view mirror, and the week-by-week NFL game odds have been released. That means we start previewing all 32 teams' road schedules with a projected record and then come back around and do all 32 home schedules with a final overall record and "over/under" pick.

NFL Week 1 Lines and Expert Betting Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 5/7/2018

The draft is over and free agency is largely done with for the year in the NFL, so it feels like we are ready to play some football. The sad truth, though, is that the regular season is still a third of a year away. Ugh. While it will be a long wait for the season to get rolling again, we don't have to wait to handicap the first week of games. Bovada is one among several sportsbooks that have posted opening lines for most games in the first week of action. A lot will obviously change between now and then, but let's go shopping for some value, shall we? This isn't all of the games - some don't have numbers yet, and some just aren't that interesting:

Can the Philadelphia Eagles Repeat as Super Bowl Champions?
by Trevor Whenham - 5/3/2018

The defending champion Philadelphia Eagles are the second choice to win the Super Bowl at +800 at Bovada, and they are the first choice in the NFC - only New England at +500, the team that Philadelphia beat to win the Super Bowl, has lower odds. Now that the draft is done, and the heavy lifting of free agency is over with, the obvious questions looms - can the Philadelphia Eagles repeat as Super Bowl champions? It's a simple question without an easy answer. Let's look at it from a few different angles:

NFL Betting Impact of Rookie Quarterbacks
by Trevor Whenham - 5/2/2018

As expected, the first round of the NFL Draft this year was very quarterback-heavy. Four pivots went in the Top 10, and there were five picked in the first round. What made this year both unique and interesting was that there was far from a consensus as to which quarterback was the best. Lamar Jackson was universally fifth - though most people seemed to think he has real upside. But if you asked 10 different people to put the top four in order you would have gotten 10 different answers.

NFL Rookie of the Year Odds: Race for Best Offensive Newcomer
by Trevor Whenham - 5/2/2018

The NFL Draft is in the books, teams mostly look like they are going to look, and we as handicappers can now turn our attention towards the season and what may happen. And one of the more interesting things to consider right now is which of those draft picks are going to pay immediate dividends for their teams. The last two years Dak Prescott and Alvin Kamara have won the award, and few would have seen them coming when the seasons started.

NFL Betting: Should I Buy Points?
by Chris Vasile - 5/1/2018

It doesn't matter if you are a novice bettor just learning the ropes or a professional bettor that's seen everything in their 25 years in the business, at one time or another (more like several times in your lifetime) you will have to throw away a ticket in which a team failed to cover the point spread by a half point. It is one of the more frustrating losses in the industry, right next to the classic ninth-inning bullpen collapse in baseball. Some would say losing a bet by the hook is the bettors fault, not the actual players or coaches in the game, and in some cases they would be right. Buying points while sports betting is both a blessing and a curse -- depending on if you know when to do so or not.

2018 First Round NFL Draft Grades by Team
by Robert Ferringo - 4/27/2018

You cannot deny evolution. Some creatures are just born to thrive while others are meant for elimination. And we were treated to this cold, unrelenting fact of nature again on Thursday in the first round of the NFL Draft. The Cleveland Browns, New York Jets and Buffalo Bills are three loser franchises. They are three of the most hopeless, inconsequential organizations in sports, perpetual failures that serve as minor stepping stones for the elite teams in the NFL. And they all proved why that is once again by failing to take advantage of the fantastic opportunities they were given to alter their histories.

2018 NFL Draft: Breaking Down the Quarterback Class
by Robert Ferringo - 4/26/2018

By my count, between 1998-2014 just 17 of the 47 quarterbacks taken in the first round of the NFL Draft turned into legitimate, competent signal callers with positive careers. (It's too early to call it on anyone taken in the last three years.) And my definition of "legitimate, competent signal caller" liberally includes noted losers Carson Palmer (No. 1 overall pick with 92-88 career record and one playoff win), Jay Cutler (No. 11 overall pick with 74-79 record and one playoff win), and Daunte Culpepper (No. 11 overall pick with 41-59 career record and two playoff wins).