NFL Handicapping Articles

NFL Expert Picks Against the Spread: Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots
by Alan Matthews - 1/17/2018

I had the Jacksonville Jaguars as my "it" team. Unfortunately, I was a year too early. Last season, I thought the Jaguars could bust out and get to the playoffs with all the young talent they had, especially on defense. Alas, their running game lacked a Leonard Fournette type and Blake Bortles was still Blake Bortles. Oh, and Gus Bradley probably wasn't meant to be a head coach.

NFL Playoffs Expert Betting Advice: Divisional Round Trends
by Robert Ferringo - 1/11/2018

When it comes to NFL Playoffs betting I am a bit more of a macro-handicapper. Rather than delving into individual matchups of games, I like to take a step back and look at the broader and longer-term trends for each individual round of the postseason. We're dealing with the best of the best football teams. The margin for error at this time of year is razor thin. And sometimes gamblers can lose some perspective in the forest of stats, trends, angles, matchups and storylines with which they are bombarded in the week leading up to one of the best football weekends of the year.

NFL Expert Picks Against the Spread: Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers
by Alan Matthews - 1/11/2018

Just think how close we might have been to an all-Pennsylvania Super Bowl. The Philadelphia Eagles were the clear team to beat in the NFC before star quarterback Carson Wentz went down with a season-ending torn ACL in Week 14. The following Sunday, the New England Patriots visited the Pittsburgh Steelers in the most important game of the regular season. The Steelers appeared to win that game late, only for a touchdown reception by Jesse James to be overturned on replay because the NFL simply doesn't know what a catch is these days (for the record, I thought it was one and I have no dog in this fight).

NFL Divisional Round Playoffs Wagering Advice: Distractions to Avoid
by Trevor Whenham - 1/11/2018

After the four NFL Playoff games are played this weekend, we should have a much better idea of who is going to win the Super Bowl than we do now. Does New England really deserve to be the heavy favorites they are, or will their issues on and off the field catch up to them? Is Pittsburgh ready to shine, or will the Jaguars stun on the back of their stellar defense? Will the Eagles pick themselves up and show the pride to save their season, or will the experience of the Falcons be too much? And who wins the strongest and probably most important game of the week - on the field that will host the Super Bowl, no less?

Jon Gruden Replacement for Monday Night Football Predictions and Betting Odds
by Raphael Esparza - 1/11/2018

On Tuesday the soon-to-be Las Vegas Raiders introduced Jon Gruden as the new head coach, and that leaves a void in the booth for "Monday Night Football". For the first time in what seems like forever, the top lead NFL analyst role is up for grabs, and the names that have been rumored to replace Gruden in the booth are outrageous but some of them seem to fit like a glove.

NFL Expert Picks Against the Spread: Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles
by Alan Matthews - 1/10/2018

So which fan base deserves a victory more in Saturday afternoon's NFC Divisional Round game at Lincoln Financial Field between the Falcons and Eagles? On the one hand you have the unfortunate football fans in the state of Georgia. They were subjected to the biggest Super Bowl choke job in history last February when their Falcons, trying for the first NFL title in franchise history, somehow blew a 28-3 late third-quarter lead to the New England Patriots. Then on Monday night, it looked like the University of Georgia would win its first national title since 1980 just 70 miles from campus in Atlanta.

Betting Odds and Predictions for Jon Gruden Monday Night Football Replacement
by Trevor Whenham - 1/10/2018

He finally did it. After years of being the hottest name not on a sideline, Jon Gruden has finally found a job he couldn't say no to. Of course, not many people would say no to the obscene contract the always-questionable Raiders threw at him. Now he has to prove that he is worth all the hype - and dramatically better than he was during his last six years in Tampa Bay. While there will be lots of time to figure out what to expect from him in his new role, let's look now at what will happen to his old seat.

NFL Divisional Round Betting Trends: Bye Teams Last Five Years
by Trevor Whenham - 1/9/2018

Things aren't quite as we are used to following the Wild-Card Weekend in the NFL Playoffs. All four teams coming off a bye are well rested and have had extra time to prepare, but only three of those teams are favored in the Divisional Round. The home team is almost always favored in this round, but understandable skepticism surrounding Nick Foles with the Eagles has given the sixth-seeded Falcons the edge in their impending showdown.

NFL Expert Picks Against the Spread: Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars
by Alan Matthews - 1/4/2018

There are a whopping eight new playoff teams in the NFL this season, and two newbies facing off in the AFC Wild-Card Round are the sixth-seeded Buffalo Bills visiting the No. 3 Jacksonville Jaguars in Sunday's first game. Buffalo ended the longest playoff drought in the four major American sports leagues (that now belongs to MLB's Seattle Mariners) in amazing fashion in Week 17.

Expert NFL Betting Advice and Tips: Ranking Playoff Upset Possibilities
by Trevor Whenham - 1/4/2018

We have a relatively clear weekend of wild card action for bettors - at least according to the odds. All four home teams are strongly favored - all by at least 6.5 points. Without question, then, a road team win would be an upset this weekend. It only makes sense, then, that we look at which teams are most likely to pull off an upset. What we'll do today is rank the wild card teams in order of their likelihood of pulling off an upset. Keep in mind that we are not focused on which teams are likely to cover spreads.

NFL Playoffs Expert Betting Advice: Ranking Postseason Teams
by Trevor Whenham - 1/4/2018

We know what the NFL Playoff field looks like now. So it makes sense that we should work to separate the contenders from the pretenders. There are a lot of teams that could win the Super Bowl without too much shock in this wide-open year - seven by my count. And there are a few teams that are only along for the ride. Here is how I rank the 12 Super Bowl contenders in order of their chances to shine and win it all (Odds to win the Super Bowl are from BetOnline):

NFL Playoffs Betting and Wagering: Avoid These Distractions
by Trevor Whenham - 1/4/2018

The media coverage of the NFL is always crazy, and it only intensifies as the postseason comes around. There are only 12 teams for media members to talk about, and there's increased public interest. It's a dangerous combination. There are many storylines that will have a big impact on the outcomes of games, and the more bettors are familiar with the better off they will be. But there are also stories that get a whole lot of coverage that just don't matter nearly as much as people think they do. You need to ignore these stories for your own sanity - and to avoid making costly betting mistakes.

NFL Expert Picks Against the Spread: Atlanta Falcons at Los Angeles Rams
by Alan Matthews - 1/3/2018

So how do you like your football? Most fans love offense, and I'm probably in that camp. For example, the college football national semifinal games were wildly different on New Year's Day. The Georgia-Oklahoma Rose Bowl was an offensive extravaganza with 102 points, two overtimes and more than 1,000 yards of offense. That was one of the best NCAA games I've watched in a long time.

NFL Betting Odds: Week 17 Line Movements & Last-Minute News
by Alan Matthews - 12/29/2017

How pissed would you be right now if you were Rams superstar running back Todd Gurley? I don't pretend to know what clauses are included in his contract, but I'm sure there's a mega-bonus for both winning the NFL MVP Award and a rushing title. However, thanks to Coach Sean McVay, Gurley perhaps does neither.

NFL Expert Picks Against the Spread: Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers
by Alan Matthews - 12/27/2017

Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, a lock first-ballot Hall of Famer when he retires thanks in part to those two Super Bowl rings - still can't believe he has never won an MVP Award - grew up in Lima, Ohio, about 170 miles or so from Cleveland. Roethlisberger, a huge Browns fan growing up, wasn't a major recruit coming out of Findlay High School, located 47 miles south of Toledo, as he didn't even start at quarterback until he was a senior.

NFL Expert Picks Against the Spread: Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons
by Alan Matthews - 12/26/2017

Well, the NFL pulled a fast one on us all. I fully expected the Week 17 Panthers-Falcons matchup to be flexed from 1 p.m. ET to the Sunday night game. So did just about every member of both teams. It was clearly the marquee matchup of the final day of the regular season with playoff ramifications for both. Really, the only other option was probably Jacksonville-Tennessee, and that's just not nationally sexy like Panthers-Falcons would be with two former NFL MVPs and the past two Super Bowl runners-up facing off.

NFL Betting Predictions: Week 17 Opening Line Report and Picks
by Alan Matthews - 12/25/2017

Being as this is my final Opening Line Report story of the 2017 season - although of course we will have you covered through the Super Bowl here at Doc's - let's project what next Monday might look like around the league: i.e. Black Monday, when disappointing teams generally fire their head coaches.

NFL Betting Odds: Week 16 Line Movements & Last-Minute News
by Alan Matthews - 12/22/2017

Time to check in on Bovada's season-long "most" props posted as some individual titles could be won this week because a few playoff-bound teams could rest starters in Week 17 if their playoff seeding is locked up. For most passing touchdowns, Russell Wilson is the -200 favorite and Philadelphia's Carson Wentz +300 with a tie at +200.

NFL Expert Picks Against the Spread: Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers
by Alan Matthews - 12/20/2017

I can promise you that every member of the New Orleans Saints, Carolina Panthers, Detroit Lions, Dallas Cowboys, Seattle Seahawks and Green Bay Packers were rooting for the Atlanta Falcons to be upset in Tampa on Monday night. Alas, the Falcons escaped with 24-21 victory. What does that have to do with my preview of Saturday night's Vikings-Packers matchup at Lambeau Field? Everything.

NFL Expert Picks Against the Spread: Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys
by Alan Matthews - 12/19/2017

There is no Sunday night game on Christmas Eve, so I can assure you the one on Dec. 24 that gets the biggest ratings (Fox has the 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff) and takes the biggest betting action at the various sportsbooks will be Seattle at Dallas. In all honesty, it's not a great Week 16 slate of action with the only other matchups featuring potentially two playoff teams being Buffalo at New England, Los Angeles Rams at Tennessee, and Atlanta at New Orleans.