NFL Handicapping Articles

Basic Strategy Teasers: Best Week 5 NFL Betting Options
by Chris Vasile - 10/5/2018

Through Week 4 of the NFL season, teams have combined to score the most points in NFL history (3,030), breaking the mark set in 2012 of 2,986. There have also been 344 touchdowns throughout the first four weeks, breaking the old NFL mark of 315 set in 2015. And lastly, teams have thrown a combined 228 passing touchdowns, which is 23 more than the previous mark of 205, set back in 2013.

NFL Betting Odds: Week 4 Line Movements & Last-Minute News
by Alan Matthews - 9/28/2018

Roger Goodell is clearly a very smart man who worked his way up to run the most powerful professional sports league in the world. He has done many good, innovative things in his tenure. But, man, sometimes he just can't get out of his own way and it blows up in his face.

Basic Strategy Teasers: Best Week 4 NFL Betting Options
by Chris Vasile - 9/27/2018

Can anyone tell me what Minnesota was thinking last week? It's like they thought they were on a bye week and didn't even show up for work. The Bills dominated them in every facet of the game, and that Vikings loss essentially ended every NFL Survivor Pool known to man. It was a weird game, but it just goes to show you that "on any given Sunday…" you know the rest of that quote.

NFL Betting Odds: Week 3 Line Movements & Last-Minute News
by Alan Matthews - 9/21/2018

Unless there's some huge story that develops between Monday night and Thursday afternoon in the NFL, I'll generally in this space try and address some interesting Bovada weekly specials - no site does that better, and I'm not just saying that because I used to help create them.

Basic Strategy Teasers: Best Week 3 NFL Betting Options
by Chris Vasile - 9/21/2018

Another NFL week, another NFL controversy. We'll get to that in a minute, but what's going on with all the ties lately? I'm on the fence on how I feel about NFL games ending in a tie. Part of me thinks it's hilarious and don't mind them (if I'm on the underdog), but the other part of me thinks they are ridiculous and should be banned from happening. I'm not sure whether making teams play a full 15-minute quarter instead of 10 would make a difference or if they should revert to college OT rules, or if teams should start investing in developing kickers that can actually kick.

NFL Betting Odds: Week 2 Line Movements & Last-Minute News
by Alan Matthews - 9/14/2018

We undoubtedly will talk about how rare it is for 0-2 teams to make the playoffs next week, but how about those who lose their season openers? I almost said that obviously 16 of the league's 32 teams opened 0-1 … but the Steelers and Browns tied. Anyways. Since the league went to a 16-game schedule in 1978, but not including the strike-shortened 1982 season, 306 of 587 teams to win their season opener made the playoffs. A total of 185 of those won division titles. That includes last year's Patriots and Saints.

Basic Strategy Teasers: Best Week 2 NFL Betting Options
by Chris Vasile - 9/14/2018

Week 2 of the National Football League is upon us, and I like to refer to it as "overreaction week". This is a week where everyone and their mother has an opinion, whether it's extremely negative like "the Bills and Lions are going 0-16" (possible) or extremely positive like "Patrick Mahomes is the second coming up Christ" (calm down). No team is as bad (the Saints) as they looked in Week 1 and no team is as good (the Bucs, Chiefs, Ravens, Jets) as they looked.

Marcus Mariota Injury Update & Status: Week 2 vs Houston Texans
by Trevor Whenham - 9/11/2018

We have spent a lot of time over the course of the last few months talking about Marcus Mariota, and not in nearly the positive ways that it seemed like we would be when he was drafted or after a promising rookie year. He had a very strong sophomore year and seemed poised for big things. But he took giant steps back last year, and now it is tough to know if the Titans have their QB of the future or just a placeholder.

NFL Betting Odds: Week 1 Line Movements & Last-Minute News
by Alan Matthews - 9/7/2018

Normally, I'll address any big line moves in this weekly story, but that's not really an option this week because NFL lines have been up for months. For example, way back when the Ravens were 3.5-point favorites over the visiting Bills. However, now that we've seen Buffalo's sorry quarterback situation, Baltimore has risen to -7.5. New Orleans opened at -6.5 months ago vs. Tampa Bay but is now -9.5 in the wake of Jameis Winston's suspension. I could go on and on.

Basic Strategy Teasers: Best Week 1 NFL Betting Options
by Chris Vasile - 9/7/2018

With one game of the NFL schedule already complete, its time for bettors to hunker down and get to work in order to maximize their profits this season. The opening game between Atlanta and Philadelphia was a dud of sorts, coming to life finally in the final quarter. And while the standard point-spread was teetering back and forth, the teaser option never wavered.

Best Fantasy Football Picks: Robert Ferringo to Offer Top Fantasy Picks Weekly
by Robert Ferringo - 9/3/2018

I used to say that fantasy football was for wussies that didn't have the stones to bet on sports. But now, as daily fantasy sites like Draft Kings and Fan Duel have become more mainstream, fantasy football is the only way some people will consider betting on sports.

Best-Case Scenario Each NFL Team in 2018
by Trevor Whenham - 8/31/2018

The NFL Preseason is, mercifully, over. We have to be a little patient, but soon enough the regular season will be here and football will finally matter again. To kill the time until then, the best thing we can do is speculate wildly. Or at least that is the most fun thing to do. Here is a look at the best-case scenario for all 32 teams heading into the season. Needless to say, it's easier to be optimistic about some teams than others.

NFL Preseason Betting Advice: Wagering Tips for Third Exhibition Game
by Trevor Whenham - 8/24/2018

The NFL Preseason is irredeemably stupid. Pointless. Teams don't need to play four games, and they know it. But owners love game revenue. So, they play games with silly rosters that prove nothing, and they are mostly a waste of time for both fans and, of more interest here, bettors.

Expert NFL Betting Advice: Best Backup QB Situations
by Trevor Whenham - 8/20/2018

Given how many college football teams there are, and the fact that all of them have quarterbacks, it should be far less difficult than it appears to be to find competent backup quarterbacks in the NFL. Heck, a lot of teams can't even find competent starters. The better a backup situation is, the less risk there is of a real collapse when a starter goes down, and the easier a team is to trust for bettors. I don't see a lot of value in ranking all of the backup QB situations in the league - it's too arbitrary and subjective, especially in the middle of the pack.

Expert NFL Handicapping and Betting Advice: Concerning QB Situations
by Trevor Whenham - 8/18/2018

Starting quarterbacks in the NFL get hurt. It's an unavoidable truth. When things go well, the transition from starter to backup can be fairly seamless - the Patriots were mostly fine when Tom Brady was lost for the Patriots for a year, and the Eagles won a Super Bowl last year after losing their QB. But when things go poorly then real problems can arise and a season can wind up to be much less promising than it was looking - you don't have to look further than the Texans, Colts or especially the Packers last year to see what can happen when a backup is not up to the challenge.

Common Football Betting Myths: Fact or Fiction?
by Jeremy Martin - 8/14/2018

Years ago, when I first started covering the sports betting industry as a writer, I would always hear the phrase "the public always bets the 'over' and the favorite". By the second or third time I heard this statement I thought that the key to riches was just to go opposite of what these public 'square' bettors did. So, for a while I started betting only the 'under' and the underdog at sportsbooks all around Las Vegas.

Smart Bettors Exploit NFL Preseason Football Betting
by Scott Spreitzer - 8/1/2018

You'll often hear critics suggest that only degenerates would bet on NFL Preseason football. You don't know how long the best players will be on the field. Nobody in uniform cares about who wins or loses, let alone who covers. They say it's a waste of time and money.

Comparing NFL and NCAA Football: Betting Tips and Expert Advice
by Chris Vasile - 7/31/2018

Ladies and gentlemen, we have officially reached the "dog days" of summer. The World Cup just ended, the excitement of NBA/NHL free agency has come and gone, and so we are just left with Major League Baseball and the Canadian Football League. Now, don't get me wrong, I enjoy both leagues very much, but I will be eagerly counting down the minutes until Week 1 of the NCAA Football season (Aug. 25) and Week 1 of the NFL season (Sept. 6).

Handicapping NFL Week 1 Lines with Expert Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 6/25/2018

We are still two and a half months away from the start of the NFL season, but odds for 12 of the 16 games on the first week of the schedule already have odds posted at Bovada. It was 13 until recently, but the suspension of Jameis Winston this week has locked up the Tampa Bay number for now. It's obviously very early, and a lot will change as camps open and we get a look at what teams are thinking and looking like in the preseason.

Odds to Win NFL Divisions with Expert Betting Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 6/25/2018

NFL division winner futures odds have been posted at Bovada, so we should obviously take a good look at them. I love looking at these numbers when they come out each year. It's a dead zone for football, so this gives us a way to see how teams are perceived, to test our feelings about how teams stack up, and to see if there are any teams that stand out as real value squads for you this year.