NFL Handicapping Articles

Expert NFL Betting Advice: Best Backup QB Situations
by Trevor Whenham - 8/20/2018

Given how many college football teams there are, and the fact that all of them have quarterbacks, it should be far less difficult than it appears to be to find competent backup quarterbacks in the NFL. Heck, a lot of teams can't even find competent starters. The better a backup situation is, the less risk there is of a real collapse when a starter goes down, and the easier a team is to trust for bettors. I don't see a lot of value in ranking all of the backup QB situations in the league - it's too arbitrary and subjective, especially in the middle of the pack.

Expert NFL Handicapping and Betting Advice: Concerning QB Situations
by Trevor Whenham - 8/18/2018

Starting quarterbacks in the NFL get hurt. It's an unavoidable truth. When things go well, the transition from starter to backup can be fairly seamless - the Patriots were mostly fine when Tom Brady was lost for the Patriots for a year, and the Eagles won a Super Bowl last year after losing their QB. But when things go poorly then real problems can arise and a season can wind up to be much less promising than it was looking - you don't have to look further than the Texans, Colts or especially the Packers last year to see what can happen when a backup is not up to the challenge.

Common Football Betting Myths: Fact or Fiction?
by Jeremy Martin - 8/14/2018

Years ago, when I first started covering the sports betting industry as a writer, I would always hear the phrase "the public always bets the 'over' and the favorite". By the second or third time I heard this statement I thought that the key to riches was just to go opposite of what these public 'square' bettors did. So, for a while I started betting only the 'under' and the underdog at sportsbooks all around Las Vegas.

Smart Bettors Exploit NFL Preseason Football Betting
by Scott Spreitzer - 8/1/2018

You'll often hear critics suggest that only degenerates would bet on NFL Preseason football. You don't know how long the best players will be on the field. Nobody in uniform cares about who wins or loses, let alone who covers. They say it's a waste of time and money.

Comparing NFL and NCAA Football: Betting Tips and Expert Advice
by Chris Vasile - 7/31/2018

Ladies and gentlemen, we have officially reached the "dog days" of summer. The World Cup just ended, the excitement of NBA/NHL free agency has come and gone, and so we are just left with Major League Baseball and the Canadian Football League. Now, don't get me wrong, I enjoy both leagues very much, but I will be eagerly counting down the minutes until Week 1 of the NCAA Football season (Aug. 25) and Week 1 of the NFL season (Sept. 6).

Handicapping NFL Week 1 Lines with Expert Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 6/25/2018

We are still two and a half months away from the start of the NFL season, but odds for 12 of the 16 games on the first week of the schedule already have odds posted at Bovada. It was 13 until recently, but the suspension of Jameis Winston this week has locked up the Tampa Bay number for now. It's obviously very early, and a lot will change as camps open and we get a look at what teams are thinking and looking like in the preseason.

Odds to Win NFL Divisions with Expert Betting Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 6/25/2018

NFL division winner futures odds have been posted at Bovada, so we should obviously take a good look at them. I love looking at these numbers when they come out each year. It's a dead zone for football, so this gives us a way to see how teams are perceived, to test our feelings about how teams stack up, and to see if there are any teams that stand out as real value squads for you this year.

2018 Detroit Lions Road Schedule Odds with Expert Picks and Predictions
by Alan Matthews - 6/21/2018

This writer grew up in Michigan but roots against that state's professional sports franchises in a big way. That said, you almost have to feel sorry for the fans of the four major Detroit sports teams as it's a low point for that city right now.

2018 Kansas City Chiefs Road Schedule Odds with Expert Picks and Predictions
by Alan Matthews - 6/20/2018

I've never been a fan of quarterback Alex Smith. I Believe he can win you regular-season games because he generally doesn't lose them by turning the ball over. Smith is also the definition of a game manager and not good enough to win playoff contests.

2018 Dallas Cowboys Road Schedule Odds with Expert Picks and Predictions
by Alan Matthews - 6/14/2018

The Dallas Cowboy who had the best 2017 season? I'd say Tony Romo. Of course, the all-time leading passer in franchise history got hurt again in the 2016 preseason and lost his job to then-rookie Dak Prescott. There were a few teams that wanted Romo to play for them in 2017, but he opted to retire and join CBS' No. 1 NFL team alongside Jim Nantz. Romo turned out to be fantastic in the booth.

2018 Buffalo Bills Road Schedule Odds with Expert Picks and Predictions
by Alan Matthews - 6/13/2018

Seattle Mariners, the monkey is yours! By that we mean monkey on the proverbial back for the longest playoff drought in the four major American sports leagues. That "honor" had belonged to the Buffalo Bills, who hadn't played extra football entering 2017 since 1999 - when Doug Flutie was their quarterback.

2018 Los Angeles Rams Road Schedule Odds with Expert Picks and Predictions
by Alan Matthews - 6/7/2018

Excluding the New England Patriots, who have been good every year since Tom Brady took over as the starter, there's always one "it" team entering an NFL season that bettors hammer on Super Bowl futures. Entering 2017, it was probably the Oakland Raiders, but they flopped to a 6-10 record and fired their head coach.

2018 Jacksonville Jaguars Road Schedule Odds with Expert Picks and Predictions
by Alan Matthews - 6/6/2018

With all due respect to the Philadelphia Eagles, the biggest surprise team in the NFL in 2017 was Jacksonville. I actually was on the Jaguars to be a breakout team in 2016, but they skidded to a 3-13 record because Blake Bortles sucks. That was the Jags' sixth straight year winning five games or fewer.

2018 NFL MVP Odds with Expert Betting Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 6/5/2018

Ten of the last 11 winners of the NFL MVP award have been quarterbacks - Adrian Peterson in 2012 was the lone exception. So, it comes as little surprise, then, that the non-QB with the lowest odds in 2018 NFL MVP futures is Le'Veon Bell at +300, which places him behind 13 starting quarterbacks. Very few people seem to think that anyone who isn't a QB will win the award this year, and given the field and the trends of voters they are probably right. But which QB? Let's look through the top 10 players for potential value (Odds are from MyBookie.ag):

2018 New Orleans Saints Road Schedule Odds with Expert Picks and Predictions
by Alan Matthews - 5/31/2018

Want proof that one draft class can alter the shape of your franchise - even if you didn't land a franchise quarterback in said class? I give you the 2017 New Orleans Saints. Coach Sean Payton was considered on the hot seat entering last year with his team coming off three straight 7-9 seasons. Most expected more of the same, but the Saints' 2017 draft class was absolutely amazing - led by NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Alvin Kamara (No. 67 overall pick from Tennessee) and Defensive Rookie of the Year Marshon Lattimore (No. 11 overall from Ohio State).

2018 Pittsburgh Steelers Road Schedule Odds with Expert Picks and Predictions
by Alan Matthews - 5/30/2018

Ben Roethlisberger is the greatest quarterback in Steelers history - yes, Terry Bradshaw has won two more Super Bowl rings, but the overall statistics aren't close - and is a first-ballot Hall of Famer someday. But, man, is Big Ben starting to sound like a whiner, and I know more than a few Steelers fans who are tired of his act. For the past couple of years, Roethlisberger has hinted at retiring.

NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Odds and Expert Betting Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 5/25/2018

It took a long while, but MyBookie has finally posted odds for the Defensive Rookie of the Year. We discussed the offensive ROY battle right after the Draft, but this race is much deeper and much more interesting. We are looking at the Top 7 guys on the odds board here, but there are six or eight more that you could easily make a case for - and one long shot who stands out who we'll look at, too. This is going to be a very fun race to watch.

2018 Minnesota Vikings Road Schedule Odds with Expert Picks and Predictions
by Alan Matthews - 5/24/2018

Minnesota was 6-2 on the road last season (best in division), 5-3 against the spread and 4-4 "over/under." The Vikings travel to three playoff teams from 2017: LA Rams, Philadelphia and New England. The road schedule looks way harder than at home with it also including perennial playoff team Seattle. I project the Vikings to go 4-4 on the road. Odds listed for the home team.

2018 New England Patriots Road Schedule Odds with Expert Picks and Predictions
by Alan Matthews - 5/23/2018

Is this the year the New England Patriots' dynasty ends? I think there is a legitimate chance the answer is "yes" and that the team's trade of Jimmy Garoppolo, made basically because Tom Brady was whining about it, is going to really start to hurt this franchise.

2018 Philadelphia Eagles Road Schedule Odds with Expert Picks and Predictions
by Alan Matthews - 5/16/2018

It's that time of year again! The NBA playoffs are down to the conference finals, the NFL Draft is in the rear-view mirror, and the week-by-week NFL game odds have been released. That means we start previewing all 32 teams' road schedules with a projected record and then come back around and do all 32 home schedules with a final overall record and "over/under" pick.