NFL Handicapping Articles

NFL Championship Weekend Odds: Public Action Betting Report
by Trevor Whenham - 1/17/2019

As I write this it is late Wednesday night, so the lines for Sunday's playoff games have been set for a long time now. They have gotten a lot of attention from sharp bettors, and casual bettors have started hitting them as well. It's a good time, then, to look at how bettors are reacting to the lines and how the lines are reacting to the early betting. With so much money bet on the two games this weekend, we can often learn a whole lot just by looking at the public action and what it can tell is.

NFL Betting Advice: AFC Championship Game Keys and Distractions
by Trevor Whenham - 1/16/2019

The top two teams in the AFC - by the standings if not by record - meet in frigid Kansas City with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line. The oldest quarterback in the league against a first-year starter. A three-time and reigning MVP against, presumably, the guy who is about to earn his first MVP award. Two of the longest serving and savviest coaches in the league - albeit two guys with very different playoff records.

NFC Championship Game Expert Handicapping: Keys and Distractions
by Trevor Whenham - 1/16/2019

The NFC Championship Game is a very intriguing battle even if it isn't exactly surprising - this is exactly the game it seemed like we would be getting since at least the beginning of November. It really should be fun - the two best offenses in the NFC with the two best point differentials. Both teams are very well coached, but the battle of the Seans is still a study in contrasts - when Payton started coaching the Saints,

Expert NFL Handicapping: Are New England Patriots Vulnerable?
by Trevor Whenham - 1/10/2019

Of all the eight teams remaining in the NFL Playoffs, the New England Patriots are the ones that probably make my head hurt most. They are like one of those paintings that looks entirely different depending on which direction you look at it from. Sometimes the painting is beautiful, and other times it is hideous, and you never know quite which.

NFL Divisional Round Playoffs Betting: Keys and Distractions
by Trevor Whenham - 1/8/2019

Handicapping successfully at any time is all about separating what actually matters from all the stuff that doesn't. If you can do that consistently, you will probably be a winner. And that is more important than ever in the NFL Playoffs when everyone is an expert, and there is wall-to-wall coverage of every game. Don't worry, though, we are here to help. Here is one of the biggest keys for each playoff team if they want to live to fight another day and a distraction that you will hear a lot about but you need to ignore.

NFL Betting Trends: Playoff Teams off Bye Week
by Trevor Whenham - 1/6/2019

We have a unique experience coming up in the second round of the NFL Playoffs. Each year we see four teams that have played for their playoff lives and won in the opening week. And their reward is to play against a well-rested team, typically with a better record, on the road. The playoffs are set up to give a distinct advantage to teams that finish in the top two spots in their conference. As bettors, our jobs are to figure out what that home-field advantage and the extra rest translates to in terms of a betting advantage.

Expert NFL Betting Advice: Ranking the Playoff Teams
by Trevor Whenham - 1/4/2019

Every wild card game this year is tight and compelling. And for bettors, that means that these playoffs are going to be a bit of a nightmare. I don't remember going into the playoffs with a more wide-open field. I can make at least something of a case for 10 different teams to win it all this year. And while one team, New Orleans, is above the rest, the gap isn't nearly what it has been in some years, and there isn't a single team that would be shocking to see lose their first or second game.

NFL Betting Odds: Week 17 Line Movements & Last-Minute News
by Alan Matthews - 12/28/2018

It's our last Line Movements & Last-Minute News story for the 2018 regular season, although obviously things are just getting started in a way NFL wise with the playoffs on tap. We'll have you more than covered through the first Sunday in February here at Doc's.

NFL Betting Odds: Week 16 Line Movements & Last-Minute News
by Alan Matthews - 12/21/2018

In many ways, Week 16 is the last "real" one of the 2018 regular season because there are only two games that don't feature a team mathematically alive for a playoff spot: Green Bay at NY Jets and Denver at Oakland (Monday). There will be a ton that don't mean squat in Week 17.

Expert NFL Handicapping: Can Los Angeles Rams Get Back on Track?
by Trevor Whenham - 12/20/2018

Let's start with the most important thing to remember when talking about the L.A. Rams right now. The team is 11-3 and has remaining games against Arizona and San Francisco, so they are well positioned to have a first-round bye as the second seed in the playoffs. We are not on the edge of disaster or anything.

NFL Handicapping and Betting: What to Make of Patriots Stuggles
by Trevor Whenham - 12/20/2018

When it comes to the New England Patriots, this is not what we are used to seeing. Sure, they are going to run away with their division yet again. And with games against the Bills and Jets remaining, they are very well positioned for double-digit wins as usual. But this is the team that was favored to win the Super Bowl heading into the season, and they are certainly not playing like a real contender right now.

NFL Betting Odds: Week 15 Line Movements & Last-Minute News
by Alan Matthews - 12/14/2018

Each week in this space, we try to address either the biggest news or top line moves for Sunday's games. It's rather nice when the two apply to the same game. That would be Sunday night's Eagles at Rams matchup. Los Angeles opened as low as -7.5 and now can be found as high as 12.5. The total has dropped around 54.5 to 52.5. Sometimes, it's not always crystal clear why a line moves so massively, but it's 100 percent known here: Carson Wentz.

NFL Playoff Teams: Handicapping Those Hard or Easy to Trust
by Trevor Whenham - 12/13/2018

As we wait for the action to start in Week 15 of the NFL season, there are still several teams in the playoff hunt. In the AFC there are four playoff locks and five teams realistically alive for the final two spots. In the NFC there are five playoff locks or near locks and four teams at the heart of one of the worst wild-card chases I ever remember. So, there are 18 teams at least sort of in the playoff conversation with three games left.

NFL Betting Odds: Week 14 Line Movements & Last-Minute News
by Alan Matthews - 12/7/2018

The biggest news in the sports world this week came from college football as one of the great coaches ever in that sport and a lock Hall of Famer, Ohio State's Urban Meyer, announced he would retire after the Buckeyes' Rose Bowl game on New Year's Day vs. Washington.

Basic Strategy Teasers: Best Week 14 NFL Betting Options
by Chris Vasile - 12/7/2018

Can someone please tell me if I missed the memo regarding the NFL refs and their incompetency this year? I mean, really. Is the NFL trying to make us mad and demand replacement refs? How hard is it to see a 6-foot-4, 250+ lbs lineman take two steps backward before the ball is even snapped?

Expert NFL Handicapping: Are Chicago Bears a Legit Contender?
by Trevor Whenham - 12/7/2018

The Chicago Bears are such an interesting case right now. After so many years of futility, and with muted expectations this year, they find themselves very much in control of the NFC North. They haven't wrapped anything up, and losing to the Giants was certainly not helpful to their cause, but they are nearly-prohibitive -800 favorites to win the division at Bovada, with the Vikings far back at +375. It's quite a turnaround - and certainly not how anyone expected the division to go at the start of the year.

NFL Betting Odds: Week 13 Line Movements & Last-Minute News
by Alan Matthews - 11/29/2018

Legendary former Dodgers executive Branch Rickey is credited with this quote: "Better to trade a player a year too early than a year too late." What does this have to do with the NFL? I give you Blake Bortles and the Jacksonville Jaguars. Bortles had a decent 2017 season and helped lead the Jaguars on a surprise run to the AFC title game - although in reality the team won more in spite of Bortles than because of him.

NFL Betting Odds: Week 12 Line Movements & Last-Minute News
by Alan Matthews - 11/23/2018

The NFL is enjoying a bit of a renaissance this season in terms of ratings because it has been the most offensive year of all-time. Some of that is thanks to burgeoning young star quarterbacks like the Chiefs' Patrick Mahomes and Rams' Jared Goff.

NFL Betting Odds: Thanksgiving Wagering Primer
by Trevor Whenham - 11/20/2018

We have reached the inevitable point in the NFL season - the one day every year in which I, as a Canadian, am jealous of my American neighbors. Don't get me wrong, I like you guys all the time. But on Thursday while we're up here working away like any other day, you guys are eating turkey and watching football. One of the very few things I love more than football is turkey. Now, I'd be more jealous if the games were better than they are this year - there isn't a game here that I was crying to see - but I'm still jealous. Here's a look at the three games and what they have to offer us:

Handicapping the NFL Division Races Heading into Week 12
by Trevor Whenham - 11/20/2018

We are at the point in the NFL season in which things really matter. The last of the byes happen this week, and every team except for the Chiefs and Rams has played 10 games. We are entering the last turn, and we can see the homestretch ahead of us. Theoretically, every divisional race is wide open, but some are more competitive than others. In fact, several of the divisions aren't that competitive at all even though there is still a month and a half of football left to play.