NFL Handicapping Articles

Worst NFL Teams Against the Spread
by T.O. Whenham - 9/10/2009

If you are like most typical NFL bettors then you probably don't really care how a team performs on the field. It's at the betting window (real or virtual) that really counts. Teams can have a pretty lousy season in terms of wins but be heroes against the spread. Others can be good, but not as good as people expected, and not good enough to cover spreads consistently.

NFL Handicapping: Effect of Three Fired Coordinators
by T.O. Whenham - 9/10/2009

There is total lunacy going on in the NFL. Among the golden rules of the league was that coordinators simply did not get fired in the weeks before the season. Coordinators have so much responsibility for what a team does on the field that it makes little sense to disrupt a team by making a change like that.

NFL Handicapping: Potential Turnaround Teams
by T.O. Whenham - 9/10/2009

The one thing we can be certain is going to happen every year in the NFL is that one or more teams is going to totally turn their season around - going from the cellar one year to full respectability the next year. Last year was a particularly strong year for the turnaround with Miami, Baltimore, and Atlanta all climbing into the playoffs from the depths of despair.

AFC South: Season Win Totals Predictions
by Dave Busk - 9/10/2009

The Colts have won 12 or more games in each of the last six years. They have one of the best quarterbacks in the league, but beyond that they have some question marks as they replaced both the offensive and defensive coordinators and promoted Jim Caldwell to head coach. While I don’t think their defense is anything special this team and its schedule is just flat out weak.

NFL Handicapping: Easiest and Toughest Schedules
by T.O. Whenham - 9/8/2009

As we get ready to handicap the NFL season there are so many different aspects we have to deal with - quarterback play, offensive line, defensive line, running game, secondary depth and on and on and on. One of the most important is the team's schedule. The importance of the schedule in the NFL can't be overstated - it is much easier for a team to beat a weak team than a strong one, obviously. That means that assessing a team's schedule is very important.

Steelers Titans NFL Opening Game Preview
by Nicholas Tolomeo - 9/8/2009

The spoils are many with a Super Bowl win. One of the most overlooked benefits of capturing the Super Bowl Trophy is something that happens seven months after all the victory parades and trips to Disney World. Since 2004 the NFL has awarded the defending Super Bowl champions a home game to kick off the NFL season on the Thursday after Labor Day and two days before anybody else takes the field.

NFL Totals Primer and Week 1 Predictions
by Larry Fiske - 9/8/2009

Bitter cold weather on Saturday gave way to heavy snow on Sunday last December when the Arizona Cardinals boarded buses at their hotel in Providence, Rhode Island, to make the 20-mile trek to Foxboro for their game against the Patriots. The game nearly screamed for the ‘under’ play as the teams would assuredly emphasize the running game and jostle for field position with receivers unable to make cuts in the muck.

NFL Handicapping: Potential Breakthrough Running Backs
by T.O. Whenham - 9/8/2009

Every year there are a few running backs who post big statistical years without having done it before. In some cases it's a hot rookie who lands in a good spot and makes the most of it. Other times it's a veteran who benefits form a change of scenery, a new scheme, or a move up the depth chart. Last year guys like Michael Turner, Steve Slaton, and Matt Forte put up the big numbers when they weren't necessarily expected to.

NFC North: Season Win Totals Predictions
by Dave Busk - 9/8/2009

A couple of weeks ago the Packers were listed at (8.5) -1.45 to go ‘over,’ now some money has pushed this line up. If I didn’t take the (8.5) there is no way I will take the ‘over’ (9) and lay the same amount of juice, but in my option the Pack is back in 2009. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers had some big shoes to fill replacing Brett Farve. Despite a 6-10 record in 2008, Rodgers still threw for more than 4,000 yards and 28 touchdowns.

NFL Handicapping: Public Teams
by T.O. Whenham - 9/4/2009

No matter what sport you are handicapping you have to consider which teams are public teams, and what effect those teams will have on the lines of their games. Simply put, a public team is one which the public - generally the less sophisticated bettors - are likely to back basically regardless of the spread, their opponent, or the other usual factors that would affect the outcome of the game and the handicapping decisions.

NFL Week 1 Highlights
by T.O. Whenham - 9/4/2009

We are now just days away from the start of the NFL season. After the long, dry football-less stretch of time known as the spring and summer any real, meaningful game will be welcome. Some of the games are obviously going to be better than others, though. As I look over the schedule and week 1 NFL odds - because I'd rather do that than watch a second of the Week 4 preseason games - there are seven games that jump out to me as being particularly interesting (odds are from Bodog):

NFL Betting: Brett Favre Props
by Matt Severance - 9/4/2009

I don’t know about you, but I am Brett Favre’d out! So the last thing I really wanted to do was write an article on the most wishy-washy player in NFL (and sports?) history. But Favre clearly drives the needle, so I feel compelled to hit on some Favre-specific prop options available on Bodog.

NFL Betting: When Do Lions Break Through?
by Matt Severance - 9/4/2009

The Detroit Lions are on fire! Restore the Roar! They finished the preseason on Thursday night with a 3-1 record. So obviously the Lions must be a better club than last season’s 0-16 regular-season club, right? Not so fast my friends!

NFL Handicapping: Quarterbacks That Could Drain Your Wallet
by T.O. Whenham - 9/4/2009

As we look towards the NFL regular season, wishing it would finally get here after an endless and mostly dull preseason, we have to look for ways to pass the time - I'm certainly not going to watch the final preseason games. To pass the time and get ready for the season I've been staring at stats until I'm almost blind.

NFL Injury Situations for Week 1
by T.O. Whenham - 9/1/2009

As we head into the NFL regular season, it's a good time to remind ourselves of the importance of injuries to our NFL handicapping. A key injury can turn a good bet into a bad one if it changes the complexion of the team, or it can make a good bet a great one if the public overcompensates for the injury and moves the betting lines in your favor. Here's a look at ten key injury situations that we will likely have to consider in the first week of the NFL season:

The Lowdown on Las Vegas Football Contests
by Vegas Sports Informer - 9/1/2009

The 2009-10 football season is here and the Las Vegas sports books are ready for the lines, smoke in the employee’s eyes, and, of course, the influx of novice bettors. It’s no secret that Las Vegas gears up for football season and not only do the books prepare for moths but the whole casino prepares.

NFL Handicapping: Biggest Preseason Surprises
by T.O. Whenham - 8/27/2009

The NFL preseason seems to go on forever. A lot of what happens is either expected or not at all shocking. Every so often, though, I see something that seems honestly and truly surprising. Here's a look at nine such things so far this year:

NFL Handicapping: Final Two Preseason Games
by T.O. Whenham - 8/25/2009

We're about to enter an inner circle of hell - the last two NFL preseason games. I suppose that there are a couple of good reasons why these last two games exist, but by far the biggest is that it allows NFL owners to charge full price for two more games.

NFL Handicapping: Preseason Quarterback Concerns
by T.O. Whenham - 8/25/2009

Most teams come into the preseason with a pretty good idea of who their quarterback is going to be to start the season. There are exceptions, of course, like Arizona, Tampa Bay, Cleveland, Minnesota and others this year, but for the most part the plan is set well before August. Where it can get really scary for teams and their fans, though, is when a designated starter doesn't play anything like a starter in preseason action.

NFL Handicapping: High-Value Teams
by T.O. Whenham - 8/21/2009

Every year there are NFL teams that perform significantly better than they are expected to coming into the season. Two years ago, few people saw the Browns turning things around so dramatically. Last year Tennessee was a pleasant surprise. Being able to spot those teams that are better than expected is a good way to make your bankroll grow. Here's a look at five teams that have the potential to be surprisingly good: