NFL Handicapping Articles

NFL Handicapping: QB Talent Gap between Starter and Backup
by Trevor Whenham - 9/2/2013

The NFL is a very dangerous place for quarterbacks. Unless you are like Brett Favre in his prime, you are going to get hurt at some point, and your team will have to play without you. For some teams a hurt starter isn’t that big of a deal.

NFL Handicapping: Most Important Games First Two Weeks
by Trevor Whenham - 9/2/2013

For bettors, every game in the NFL has the potential to be important. Some are inevitably more important than others, though – at least in terms of what they can teach us and what they mean for the season ahead. When teams face a challenge, we can learn what they are made of, how adaptable and tough they are, and what we can expect the next time they are challenged.

Managing your NFL Betting Bankroll
by Trevor Whenham - 9/2/2013

It’s time for the start of another NFL betting season. For committed bettors there is no better time of year than this one. Betting on the NFL is a marathon, not a sprint, though – the regular season stretches for a third of a year before the really good stuff even begins. During that marathon there are going to be betting hot stretches and also points where you couldn’t pick a winner if there was only one team playing a scrimmage against themselves.

NFL Handicapping: Preseason Winners and Losers
by Robert Ferringo - 8/30/2013

Contrary to popular belief, the NFL Preseason is not worthless. There is plenty of information to be gleaned from the exhibition season, and after a month of closely analyzing the 32 professional teams, I feel like the tone has been set for the pro football betting season.

Monday Night Football Betting Stats and Trends
by George Monroy - 8/30/2013

“Monday Night Football” might be the most anticipated day of the football week. It’s a day for bettors to try and get even or extend their profit from the previous week as well as the one day that football is thrust into the national spotlight with a prime-time television slot. MNF has become an America institution, and it is the one game of the week that has all the attention of the general public and gambling world.

Top Props of the Week: 2013 NFL Free Agent WR Touchdown Props
by Dave Schwab - 8/28/2013

The name at the top of this list is wide receiver Wes Welker, who jumped ship from a very successful ride in New England to try and win another Super Bowl this season with the Denver Broncos. The money line odds that he catches “over” 7.5 touchdown receptions in the 2013 regular season is currently set at +105, while the odds he catches “under” that total are set at -135.

AFC North one of Toughest Races in NFL
by Nicholas Tolomeo - 8/27/2013

The AFC North race is shaping up to be one of the most competitive in the league this season. While people are ready to concede the West to Denver, the East to New England and the South to Houston, nobody is quite sure who the favorite is in the AFC North, not even oddsmakers.

NFL Handicapping: Teams with QB Uncertainty
by Trevor Whenham - 8/26/2013

It seems like a reasonably strong era for quarterbacks in the NFL. Despite that, though, there are at least a quarter of the teams in the league that have real uncertainty at the position. While most teams have named their opening-day starter, or at least it seems clear who it will be, at least eight teams could face a change at the first speed bump along the way.

NFL Handicapping: Preseason Week 4
by Trevor Whenham - 8/26/2013

The fourth week of the NFL Preseason is really stupid. Really, the whole preseason is stupid, but the fourth week is the most offensive. Teams don’t care. Stars don’t play. It’s a cash grab. In most cases you need to be really desperate as a bettor to seek out action in the fourth week — especially because it corresponds with the opening week of the college football season. In a (very) few cases, though, there are reasons to watch these games that are little more than an NFL cash grab.

NFL Handicapping: Possible ATS Disappointments
by Trevor Whenham - 8/26/2013

It is very hard for teams in the NFL to consistently deliver value to bettors. Betting on the NFL is both so popular and so difficult that a team that was a betting star one year is in real danger of being overbet the next year -- and not covering nearly as many spreads as a result. Here’s a look at the four teams that were successful against the spread that are in position to be much less successful at covering the spread this year:

NFL Handicapping: Improved Running Games
by Trevor Whenham - 8/26/2013

There are few ways for a team in the NFL to improve themselves quickly and dramatically than improving their running game. Yards on the ground often aren’t sexy, but they are so important. They slow down the game, exhaust opposing defenses, and give your own defense time to rest and be sharp when it is called on. When a team can run effectively, the quarterback has more time and space to pass because the defense can’t commit as fully to the pass as they would like.

NFL Handicapping: Don’t Sleep on Special Teams
by Zack Cimini - 8/23/2013

Handicapping an NFL game is completely different from college football. The old saying that people win on Saturday and give it all back Sunday is more matter of fact than people think. Analyzing every angle – in detail – in the NFL is a necessity because the differences from position to position do not vary as much between the pro and college games.

NFL Football Betting: Concepts to Think About When Handicapping a Game
by George Monroy - 8/23/2013

At first glance, handicapping a football game might seem like a simple process that does not require much thought. After all, each team plays only one game per week, and there is a mountain of information to study on the Internet. However, picking a winner during any given matchup requires more than just reading up on each team and choosing a side.

NFL Strength of Schedule and Season Win Totals
by Nicholas Tolomeo - 8/22/2013

The impact of NFL strength of schedule sometimes gets overemphasized, and sometimes it gets overlooked. Just because a team like the Jacksonville Jaguars has the easiest schedule in the NFL during a given year does not mean you should start preparing to watch the Jaguars play in January.

2013 Seattle Seahawks Predictions and NFL Futures Odds
by Alan Matthews - 8/22/2013

Maybe Pete Carroll can coach pro athletes after all. He was not good with the Jets and decent with the Patriots, but once he was fired by New England after the 1999 season it was thought Carroll's NFL days were over. Of course, then he turned USC into a powerhouse -- not necessarily following the rules in doing so -- and Seahawks owner Paul Allen was able to lure Carroll with a boatload of money and plenty of personnel control in Seattle.

2013 Philadelphia Eagles Predictions and NFL Futures Odds
by Alan Matthews - 8/21/2013

The Philadelphia Eagles haven't missed the postseason for three straight seasons since 1997-99. That was the final two seasons of Ray Rhodes' coaching tenure and the first of Andy Reid's. He was a lame-duck coach in 2012, and it seemed to show. The Eagles started a solid 3-1, but that was fool's good as those three wins were by a combined four points. Then the wheels fell off, and Philadelphia got one more victory the rest of the way.

Possible 2013 NFL ATS Kings
by George Monroy - 8/21/2013

Against the spread records may be one of the most important elements to look at when handicapping an NFL team. Many times a team’s straight up win/loss record can be deceiving, and just because a team is winning it does not necessarily mean that they are covering the spread. Last season the New England Patriots ended the year with a 12-4 SU record but only managed to produce a 9-7 ATS record. And on the other end of the spectrum, the St. Louis Rams won only seven games SU last season but ended the year with an astounding 11-5 ATS record.

Toughest NFL Teams to Handicap
by Trevor Whenham - 8/21/2013

I am trying to figure out what to expect from some teams before the NFL season starts. The preseason is mostly useless, but if we don’t know what a team is going to be capable of it can at least provide us some insight into what we could see later on. Not in the case of these three teams, though. The expectations of them seem clear in some cases, but the preseason has done nothing to confirm our thoughts or dispel them.

NFL Handicapping: Teams with Chance for Best ATS Improvement
by Trevor Whenham - 8/20/2013

There were only 15 teams in the NFL last season that at least broke even for bettors who bet on them in every game they played last year. That means that 17 teams lost faithful bettors money. Some lost a little. Many lost a whole lot.

Top Props of the Week: 2013 NFL Player Head-to-Head Matchups
by Dave Schwab - 8/20/2013

To get you ready for the 2013 NFL season, BetOnline has released an extended number of prop bet odds for individual player performances. Some are based on their stand-alone achievements while others pit them in a head-to-head matchup against a player of equal caliber. These are often some of the most interesting and opportunistic prop bets on the board.