NFL Handicapping Articles

NFL Handicapping: Teams Winless through Week 2
by Trevor Whenham - 9/17/2013

Basic math suggests that after two weeks a quarter of the teams in the NFL should be winless. That’s exactly the situation we have. While there is a whole lot of season left and it seems far too early to panic, it has historically been a very bad thing to limp out of the gate. Since 1990 there have been 190 teams that have started out 0-2. Just 22 of those — 11.6 percent — have gone on to make the playoffs.

Handicapping Chip Kelly’s Performance in Philadelphia
by Trevor Whenham - 9/17/2013

When Chip Kelly took the job with the Philadelphia Eagles this offseason after previously flirting with the NFL, we knew that we were going to see fireworks. We haven’t been disappointed. It has been far from perfect, but the team is averaging 31.5 points per game and has played two of the more interesting and exciting games of the season.

NFL Handicapping: Just how bad are the Jaguars?
by Trevor Whenham - 9/17/2013

I don’t think that there is anyone coming into this season that thought that the Jacksonville Jaguars were going to be anything other than pretty bad. Through their first two games, though, they have fallen below even the lowest of expectations. They have been just terrible. They scored two points at home in their opener. In their second game — at a lousy Oakland team, no less — they scored a meaningless touchdown once their loss was all but certain and then missed the conversion for good measure.

NFL Betting and Handicapping: Scouting the Week Ahead
by Alan Matthews - 9/16/2013

If the road to the NFC Championship goes through Seattle, the rest of that conference is in big trouble. What other reaction could you have to the Seahawks' 29-3 destruction of the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday night? Marshawn Lynch was in full beast mode with three total touchdowns, and the NFL's best defense held San Francisco to just 207 yards.

NFC East Weekly NFL Betting Picks: Week 2
by Dave Schwab - 9/11/2013

The Dallas Cowboys and the Philadelphia Eagles carved out the early edge in the NFC East title race with key divisional victories on opening day, so heading into this week it is up to Washington and New York to try an avoid a dreaded 0-2 start as underdogs against two tough opponents.

NFL Totals Betting: Week 2 Over and Under Predictions
by Dave Schwab - 9/11/2013

We are only one week into the new NFL season and the oddsmakers are already in top form setting the “over/under” line with a perfect 8-8 record in Week 1. I survived with a 2-1 record on last week’s picks thanks to Chip Kelly’s new offense in Philly.

NFL Basic Strategy Teasers: Best Options for Week 2
by George Monroy - 9/11/2013

Week 1 of the NFL season opened with a bang. Peyton Manning performed like the best version of Peyton Manning we have ever seen, the San Francisco 49ers and Green Bay Packers traded blows like heavyweight boxers, and Robert Griffin III looked rusty and the Philadelphia Eagles’ offense looked great. And on top of all that, basic strategy teasers went 2-1, with the one teaser that was most likely to lose actually losing. Remember that basic strategy teasers are a specific type of wager that moves the spread past the strongest NFL key numbers of three and seven.

NFL Betting and Handicapping: Scouting the Week Ahead
by Alan Matthews - 9/10/2013

So how important is Week 1 in the NFL? I would argue not that much -- certainly nowhere near as important as the opening week in college football. Thus, I wouldn't read too much into the NFL's first week, although there are certainly some warning signs for a few teams.

NFL Handicapping: Don’t Overreact to Broncos Impressive Week 1 Performance
by Trevor Whenham - 9/10/2013

If you have read much of what I have written — repeatedly — about the Broncos leading into this session, then by now you probably think I sound like a Grinch. After seeing their truly impressive performance against the Ravens in their opener, though, my message of general bearishness about the team — at least from a betting perspective — is now more important than ever.

NFL Handicapping: Week 1 Surprises
by Trevor Whenham - 9/10/2013

The NFL season is very young, and we have learned time and again that what happens in the first week, or in the first few weeks, doesn’t always translate into what will happen over the whole season. That being said, since we spend the whole offseason crafting and refining our expectations for teams, it makes sense after the first game to look at the teams and players that posted surprising efforts — in positive or negative ways.

2013 NFL Worst Team Record Odds and Predictions
by Alan Matthews - 9/6/2013

Anyone can bet on which team will win the Super Bowl. It's why Survivor Pools are so popular -- you predict which team will win each week. You rarely see the opposite angle, and that's why I love Sportsbook.ag's prop on which NFL team will finish the 2013 season with the worst record. Frankly, if you are going to stink, this is the year to do it (much like in the NBA Draft with a loaded 2014 class). It appears there are at least two franchise players who will be in next May's NFL Draft (remember, it was moved back a few weeks in 2014): South Carolina defensive end Jadeveon Clowney and Louisville quarterback Teddy Bridgewater.

2013 NFL Team, Player Exotics Odds and Predictions
by Alan Matthews - 9/4/2013

Easily the most interesting time to bet the NFL is on the eve of the season because the books come up with all these very unique exotic bets. You won't see a ton of these during the year because the books obviously are going to be pretty busy during the week and don't have time for the research for the out-of-the-box bets. That said, I will bring you stories when they happen -- Bovada, for example, often releases weekly specials that are different from normal props.

Basic Strategy Teasers: Best Week 1 NFL Betting Options
by George Monroy - 9/4/2013

A basic strategy teaser may be one of the sharpest wagers a bettor can make during the NFL football season. These bets are simple six-point, two-team teasers that move spreads through the strongest NFL key numbers of three and seven—the most common margin of victory during professional football games. Basic strategy teasers are positive expected value plays and should provide bettors with an advantage over the sportsbooks.

NFL Totals Betting: Week 1 Over and Under Predictions
by Dave Schwab - 9/4/2013

While a good majority of the people that enjoy wagering on the NFL tend to focus much of their attention on a particular matchup’s pointspread, many times the real value in the lines can be found in the “over/under” for that game.

NFL Handicapping: Thursday Night Games
by Zack Cimini - 9/4/2013

Over the past decade, we have witnessed enormous changes in the NFL: new overtime rules, challenge flags, fines for certain types of hits, regular season games in Europe, and even schedule changes. Every time there is an amendment, it is questioned by the media – vigorously – and then, just as quickly, it takes a second seat to the real end result: the game of football on the field.

NFC East Weekly NFL Betting Picks: Week 1
by Dave Schwab - 9/3/2013

A new NFL season gets underway this week, and one of the most competitive divisions in the league this year should be the NFC East. All four teams are within two games of each other in terms of their predicted win total for the regular season, which should keep the division title race tight all the way to Week 17.

Top Props of the Week: 2013 NFL Win Totals Three-Way Lines
by Dave Schwab - 9/3/2013

Just about every major sportsbook has released its odds for the “over/under” on each NFL team’s projected win total for the upcoming regular season, but Sportsbook.ag takes these prop bets one step further by offering a third set of odds for a tie. The following is a look at three teams that offer some solid value in their odds for hitting that projected win total right on the nose.

NFL Betting and Handicapping: Scouting the Week Ahead
by Alan Matthews - 9/2/2013

Have we gone into an NFL season in recent memory with such uncertainty at quarterback for a handful of teams? Let's start with the New York Jets, who very much appear poised to have their worst season since going 4-12 in 2007. We all know by now that Rex Ryan made the disastrous decision to play Mark Sanchez in the fourth quarter of the team's third preseason game.

Bold NFL Predictions for the 2013-14 Season
by Trevor Whenham - 9/2/2013

Things are getting out of control on this front in my eyes. Peyton Manning is the favorite to win the MVP at 5/1, and his team is the co-favorite to win the Super Bowl at 6/1. I feel like the lone voice in the wilderness, but I have been saying it a lot this preseason, and I’ll say it again here -- this just doesn’t make sense. Manning is 37 years old and a season removed from an injury that could have crippled him – and did cost him a year and his position on a team that he was as closely identified with as any player in sports.

NFL Handicapping: Best Backup QBs
by Trevor Whenham - 9/2/2013

As NFL handicappers we probably don’t spend enough time thinking about backup quarterbacks. When we are handicapping baseball we look past the starting pitcher and consider the strength of the bullpen because we know the starter isn’t likely to finish the game. The backup quarterback isn’t as likely to be seen, but in this rough league we are just one big hit away from a change.