NFL Handicapping Articles

Week 1 NFL Odds: Taking a Closer Look at the Biggest Underdogs on Betting Board
by George Monroy - 8/26/2014

The NFL can see some huge spreads on a weekly basis. Last year the Jacksonville Jaguars were a 27-point underdog against the Denver Broncos and a 19-point dog against the Seattle Seahawks (they went 1-1 ATS). Lines of that magnitude, however, are rare, and big underdogs tend to stay in the 10- to 14-point range.

Handicapping the St. Louis Rams after Sam Bradford Injury
by Trevor Whenham - 8/25/2014

I was high on Sam Bradford heading into this season. He and Jeff Fisher were looking like a good pairing once they got a chance to play together and get comfortable. He had some talent around him. He’s old enough and experienced enough to let his talent finally come to the forefront. It was going to be a good year.

Handicapping Bovada’s Prop for the NFL’s Worst Team
by Trevor Whenham - 8/25/2014

If you were to tell me that at this point last year you knew that the Houston Texans were going to wind up with the worst record in the NFL then I would be forced to call you a liar. Heck, if after six weeks you thought it was going to be anyone other than Jacksonville then you are probably remembering wrong.

Handicapping Bovada’s Prop Bet for First NFL Coach Fired
by Trevor Whenham - 8/25/2014

Whenever things start to go badly for any team in an NFL season, one of the first things that fans call for is for the coach to be fired. Teams often listen — about a fifth to a quarter of coaches are fired every year. Quite often, like last year, teams will get a jump on the race and fire a coach during the season — as the Houston Texans did last year with Gary Kubiak.

Handicapping Sportsbook NFL Season Special Props Odds with Betting Picks
by Trevor Whenham - 8/25/2014

When it comes to the NFL, I am an absolute sucker for records and the breaking of mythical barriers. It means little if a guy winds up with 2,000 yards receiving or 1,996 in real terms, but it means everything to the football geeks amongst us — and if you are reading this article that probably means you.

Handicapping Sportsbook NFL Quarterback Special Props Odds
by Trevor Whenham - 8/25/2014

When we are looking at players in the NFL, we so often handicap how they match up in particular games against the players they will line up against. It’s a good handicapping exercise to look at a wider picture and to really consider how they are going to fare on a larger perspective. It’s kind of like bringing a fantasy football drafting perspective to handicapping. One way we can do that — and hunt for profit at the same time — is by looking at the QB special props that Sportsbook.ag has on offer this year.

NFL Comeback Player of the Year Odds, Picks and Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 8/25/2014

There are two challenges I face when looking at betting on who will be the Comeback Player of the Year in the NFL. The first is that it is such a poorly-defined award. A guy can win it because he is coming back from a devastating injury, because he wasn’t in the league the year before, or just because he had a lousy year the year before and bounced back strong.

NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Odds, Picks and Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 8/25/2014

When you are trying to handicap who will be named the Defensive Rookie of the Year in the NFL this year — and profit on futures betting as a result — you probably want to keep a very strong trend in mind. When Charles Woodson took home the award in 1998, he didn’t know at the time that he would be the last defensive back to win the trophy.

Handicapping Bovada’s NFL Player Props with Picks and Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 8/22/2014

In the never-ending pursuit of prop bets that people will spend money on, sportsbooks are getting more and more creative every year. It used to be that a side and a total was all that was needed for books to draw more business, but the Internet has changed all of that. Each year books come up with new ways to tempt us — or really not tempt the smart ones amongst us in a lot of cases.

NFL Preseason Free Pick for Friday Action
by CarbonSports - 8/22/2014

The battle for New York always has a little extra intensity whether it's preseason or not and this game will be no different. The starting QB's for both New York franchises have had their fair share of struggles this preseason and although they'll be able to build some continuity tonight by playing the first half (and more) it will be these defenses who bring that intensity level to this game and keep this one below the total.

Free NFL Preseason Picks for Thursday Night Action
by CarbonSports - 8/21/2014

We've finally reached Week 3 of the NFL preseason and that means it's dress rehearsal time for these teams. Starting lineups will see the first half of action at minimum and we can get a better grasp on what to expect from all 32 NFL teams when the real games actually get going. This is still preseason though and results don't always matter to these teams, but with the Eagles yet to win so far in August, odds makers expect that to change tonight.

Handicapping Bovada’s 2,000-yard NFL Rushing Prop
by Trevor Whenham - 8/20/2014

When it comes to rushing yards in a season, 2,000 yards is an almost mythical barrier. Only seven running backs in history have surpassed the total, and only two — Adrian Peterson in 2012 and Chris Johnson in 2009 — have done so in the last decade. We aren’t exactly in a golden running era in the league — teams spend too much time passing for that — so when a running back puts up big numbers it is particularly impressive.

Handicapping Bovada’s Interesting NFL Passing Record Prop
by Trevor Whenham - 8/19/2014

Last year Peyton Manning rewrote the record books with his 5,477 passing yards. The new league record was obviously impressive. We live in a very pass-happy time, though, so it is not impossible to imagine that that record will be broken again. It’s certainly not in the realm of untouchable marks like Dimaggio’s 56-game hitting streak or Gretzky’s 92 goals in a season. In fact, Bovada has odds posted for breaking the record this year, and the “yes” side is at just +300 (the “no” side is favored at -400).

NFL Handicapping: Closer Look at Top 5 ATS Teams from Last Season
by Trevor Whenham - 8/18/2014

The one thing you can be sure of is that things in the NFL are always changing. It would be easy to handicap this league if teams that were strong against the spread one year stayed that way the next year. That obviously isn’t the case.

NFL Preseason Betting: Handicapping the Third Exhibition Game
by Trevor Whenham - 8/18/2014

I hate the NFL Preseason. It is dull. Misleading. Endless. It is a tease before the real season begins, and it just doesn’t mean enough to justify the time and effort involved in it. They could shorten it to two games, and the only ones who would shed a tear are the owners who get to sell full-price tickets to half-value games.

NFL Handicapping: Best and Worst Backup Quarterbacks
by Trevor Whenham - 8/18/2014

As the saying goes, when things are going poorly in football there is no player more popular than the backup QB. Even when things are going well, the backup QB is a crucially important position. Few things can be more disruptive for a team than the loss of a starter. As a handicapper we always live in fear of losing a starter we have bet on. Those fears can be eased substantially, though, when the backup is viable and can be trusted to step in and perform at a reasonable level.

NFL Handicapping: Preseason Warning Signs Bettors Should Heed
by Trevor Whenham - 8/18/2014

August is far too soon to worry about teams in the NFL. We still don’t know what teams are going to look like, and even teams with fairly obvious rosters are far from full intensity. The best thing you can do now is to relax and wait patiently for real games to start. That is easier said than done, though. We are bombarded with news and speculation out of training camps, and we can’t easily block it all out.

Monday Night Football Free Pick Cleveland at Washington
by CarbonSports - 8/18/2014

It may only be a preseason game, but you know ESPN has to love getting a matchup like this. We will hear plenty about QB's Johnny Manziel and Robert Griffin III throughout the night, but right now only the latter will be starting come Week 1 in September. Manziel still has time to make his case for the #1 spot and needs a strong performance tonight to help his cause, but will it be enough to get him and his teammates their first victory of the year?

NFL Handicapping: Pleasant Surprises from Training Camp
by Trevor Whenham - 8/15/2014

When NFL training camps begin we typically have an idea of how we expect teams to perform and what we expect to see in the weeks before the real games begin. Quite often we are right — at least that is what we hope. Sometimes, though, there are teams, or at least aspects of a team, that perform much better in training camps and the preseason than they were expected to.

NFL Preseason Picks: Saturday Odds and Predictions
by CarbonSports - 8/15/2014

The Bengals defense was absolutely torched last week, giving up 41 points in a two-point loss to the Chiefs. To be fair it wasn't all the defense's fault as Cincinnati gave up two INT's for touchdowns and the special teams allowed an 80-yard punt return to cash 7 points as well. However, all the talk in camp this week has been about playing much better defensively and keeping opponents off the scoresheet. They'll get their chance to do that tonight against a Jets team that is looking to be a much improved squad this season.