NBA Handicapping Articles

Free NBA Picks: Tuesday, Dec. 5, 2017, Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews - 12/4/2017

Look, I'm not going to feel bad for some NBA player who is making $4.1 million this season. But, wow, did Nerlens Noel make a gigantic mistake this summer when the Dallas Mavericks offered to re-sign him on a four-year, $70 million extension. Noel and his agent, Happy Walters, turned that down (they asked for the max) in hopes of landing more as a restricted free agent. Except competing teams rarely make big offers to RFAs because the original team can match - and it just ties up your salary cap potentially for a week while waiting.

Free NBA Picks: Saturday, Dec. 2, 2017, Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews - 12/1/2017

I'm not sure I believe in curses, although how else can you explain the Chicago Cubs going 108 years without a World Series title and what has happened with Cleveland's "professional" football team since the Browns re-entered the NFL? So, while I don't want to say the Clippers are a cursed franchise, wow do they have bad luck. The latest bad fortune struck the team this week when star Blake Griffin went down with a knee injury. Only with the Clippers could it be good that Griffin will miss about two months with a sprained MCL; yes, that is much better than a torn ACL and 12 months on the sideline.

Expert NBA Handicapping: Biggest League Disappointments
by Trevor Whenham - 12/1/2017

We are a quarter of the way into the NBA season. We still don't know all there is to know in the league, but we do have a good sense of what teams are made of. And that means that there are some teams that have been pleasant surprises or teams that are definitely on track - Detroit, Philadelphia, and Minnesota for example. And there are teams that have really disappointed up to this point. We are going to look at five squads on that second list right now. At this point these are the five biggest disappointments in the NBA:

Expert NBA Betting Advice: Teams With No Playoff Hope
by Trevor Whenham - 12/1/2017

We are only a quarter of the way into the NBA season, but for six teams in the league we might as well by 80 games in. These teams are going nowhere in a hurry and just have nothing left to play for other than balls in the draft lottery. It's a long season for the players, and a longer season for the fans, when it's not even December yet and there is nothing left to play for. Here's a look at each team and where they are at.

NBA Betting Trends: Totals Report for Hot Over and Under Teams
by Aaron Smith - 11/30/2017

The strength of the NBA Eastern Conference Central Division has been a big surprise so far this year. Detroit is arguably the biggest surprise in the league. The Pistons now see the Cleveland Cavaliers quickly charging in their rear-view mirror as well. No surprise that the Cavs are putting it together. Indiana being 12-9 through 21 games is a big surprise as well. Then you have Milwaukee at 10-9, and they are a team that should make the playoffs. Will this division continue to overachieve? The polar opposite is the Western Conference Pacific Division. The Warriors are the best team in the NBA, but no one else in the division is any good. Golden State might clinch the division in early February at this rate.

Expert NBA Betting Advice: Studs and Duds Against the Spread
by Trevor Whenham - 11/29/2017

We are, give or take, a quarter of the way through the NBA season. There have been some real surprises along the way and some growing pains for some teams that have faced a lot of changes. The Thunder certainly didn't make the moves they did to be 8-11 and out of the playoffs. Expectations for the Lakers were a little overly optimistic. And Cleveland had a rough start. There have been some real positives, too, with teams like Detroit and Portland far exceeding reasonable expectations.

Free NBA Picks: Wednesday, Nov. 29, 2017, Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews - 11/28/2017

Might be smart to fade the Washington Wizards for the next two weeks or so as All-Star point guard John Wall, easily the heart-and-soul of that team, will miss around that long after getting some platelet-rich plasma injections in his bothersome and inflamed left knee. A knee injury is scary for any basketball player, but Wall's game is predicated on his quickness. Wall is averaging 20.3 points, 9.2 assists and 3.4 rebounds. The Wizards were averaging 110.6 points per possession with him, which would rank third in the NBA as a team, and led to a net efficiency rating of plus-7.3.

Expert NBA Handicapping: Six Factors to Boston Celtics Success
by Trevor Whenham - 11/22/2017

The Boston Celtics are a truly remarkable story right now. They lost their big free agent signing mere minutes into the opening game of the season. A lot of teams would be crushed by that, and for the first two games it looked like Boston would be as well. But then they went full nuclear. They have won 16 games in a row, opened up a four-game cushion atop the conference already, and are the most exciting part of what has been a pretty great season so far. It has been amazing. But can it last? Here are six factors to consider:

NBA Betting Advice: Lessons We have Learned Early Season
by Trevor Whenham - 11/17/2017

We are only 15 or so games into the NBA season, so it's important to remember that we really don't know much yet. Some teams aren't playing at full strength or intensity yet, and the playoffs are so far away that some elite teams just don't care. But we have seen enough basketball action to start to draw a few conclusions based on what we have seen so far. The sample size is large enough to at least draw these eight conclusions:

NBA Betting Advice: How to Handle OKC Thunder Slow Start
by Trevor Whenham - 11/17/2017

The Oklahoma City Thunder made a huge offseason splash. Then they made another one. The summer was an arms race like the NBA has never seen, and the Thunder were right there on the front in the heart of the action. The problem, though, is that through 14 games they have not been particularly good. In fact, only a recent three-game winning streak has returned them to .500 and shifted them from ugly to just mediocre.

NBA Betting Trends: Totals Report for Hot Over and Under Teams
by Aaron Smith - 11/15/2017

We're about one month into the NBA season. After Gordon Hayward went down in the first game of the season, I can't imagine many people would have expected the Celtics to have the best record in the NBA through the first month. Boston lost that first game in Cleveland, but they have gone 13-1 since that loss. Even more impressive is the fact that Boston is a whopping 12-2-1 against the spread on the season. Oklahoma City has been disappointing at only 6-7 overall on the year and 6-7 ATS. Cleveland is 7-7 on the young season, and they are just 4-9-1 ATS.

NBA Betting Trends: Totals Report for Hot Over and Under Teams
by Aaron Smith - 11/1/2017

We are a little more than two weeks into the season. Generally at this point, we'd only be a game or two into the season, but the start date of the NBA season was moved up this year to eliminate some of the back-to-back scheduling spots. Cleveland has been the biggest disappointment of the season so far. Not only are the Cavs 3-4 overall, but they are 1-6 against the spread. Orlando is the biggest surprise for me. The Magic are 5-2 overall, and they are the leader in the NBA Southeast Division

Free NBA Picks: Thursday, November 2, 2017, Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews - 11/1/2017

The Philadelphia 76ers have a potentially bright future with Joel Embiid, who might be the NBA's most dominant player when healthy (seriously), and young star Ben Simmons. But, man, has that franchise made some missteps that may have ruined a potential dynasty. The Sixers have completely botched the shoulder injury of rookie point guard Markelle Fultz, whom the team traded up for to take No. 1 overall in this year's draft. He's out indefinitely, and it already looks as if his rookie season could be a total injury loss just like that of Simmons and Embiid (he had multiple lost seasons).

Free NBA Picks: Thursday, October 26, 2017, Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews - 10/25/2017

I wrote my first Opening Line Report for last Thursday's games and gave a few season prop predictions from Bookmaker. I'm loving two of those right now: Philly's Ben Simmons (then +250) to win the Rookie of the Year and Milwaukee's Giannis Antetokounmpo (+718) to win the MVP. Alas, it took only three games for one of those props to be settled. Shockingly, the Phoenix Suns dumped Earl Watson that quickly - he was part of the field on that prop (I went with the Pelicans' Alvin Gentry).

Expert NBA Handicapping: Assessing Long-Term Injuries
by Trevor Whenham - 10/22/2017

It has been a remarkably bad first few days of the NBA season when it comes to the health of key players. Gordon Hayward was lost - likely for at least one season - with an injury so nasty it could turn you off of eating for life if you caught it live. Jeremy Lin was lost for the year in the Nets' opener. And Chris Paul reportedly could miss a month or two with continuing knee woes.

Boston Celtics NBA Betting: Wagering Impact of Gordon Hayward injury
by Trevor Whenham - 10/22/2017

Kevin Ware. Willis McGahee. And now Gordon Hayward. Three guys who will be burned into my brain for eternity - and for the worst of reasons. We have watched all three of them have massive failures in their legs. And then we watched it again and again and again, because it was so horrible we couldn't look away. I can close my eyes and watch every hideous detail of every injury. And I'll always be able to.

Betting on the Brooklyn Nets: NBA Wagering Impact of Jeremy Lin Injury
by Trevor Whenham - 10/22/2017

The Gordon Hayward injury has received by far the most attention in the early part of the season. And it deserves it - both for the hideousness of the injury itself and the massive impacts on the plans of a conference favorite. The loss of Jeremy Lin for the year in Brooklyn's opener got less coverage, and the Nets certainly aren't anywhere near as good or relevant as Boston, but it still has a very significant impact on this team and how we have to perceive them as bettors. Here are six factors to consider when looking at what the loss of Lin for the year means for bettors:

Free NBA Picks: Thursday, October 19, 2017, Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews - 10/18/2017

Welcome to my first NBA Opening Line Report of what should be an epic 2017-18 regular season (not so much for the Celtics after the gruesome Gordon Hayward injury) with all the offseason big-name player movement. Because Doc's is heavy on football right now - NFL and college football are still king of the betting world - I won't be starting my Tuesday-Saturday daily previews of the NBA schedule until after the NCAA regular season is over.

Free NBA Picks: Best Prop Bets on the Board
by Trevor Whenham - 10/17/2017

As we get ready for the NBA season to get rolling, the last stop before the season is to look for any late value in the prop bets. I'm generally not a huge fan of these props as a real bet because you have to lock your money up all year for what is often a lousy payoff. But they are endlessly interesting to actually look at and to help focus your view of what the season is actually going to look like. We've taken a look at four props from two different sports books to see the real highlights:

NBA Player Point Props Odds and Expert Betting Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 10/17/2017

It's the dawn of a new NBA season, and we have spent a whole lot of time here looking at teams and the expectations surrounding them. Now it's time to look more at the individual players. Why? Well for the reason look at anything around these parts - because there could be value to be had. Bovada has listed totals for a wide range of players and the points per game they will score this year (also assists and rebounds if that's more your speed). Here's a look at some of the more interesting options: