NBA Handicapping Articles

Free NBA Picks: Friday, Jan. 5, 2018, Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews - 1/4/2018

How close were the Boston Celtics to landing Jimmy Butler? Depends on which report you read, but there seemed to be little question that the Bulls and Celtics had talks about Butler all during last season and that those really heated up ahead of the 2017 draft. After Boston moved down from No. 1 to No. 3 back in June, the Bulls called and offered the Celtics Butler straight-up for the No. 3 overall pick. How do you not take that if you are Danny Ainge?

Free NBA Picks: Thursday, Jan. 4, 2018, Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews - 1/3/2018

Bovada released updated NBA Rookie of the Year odds this week, and there was some interesting movement. Ben Simmons had been a whopping -2000 favorite the last time that site posted odds, but now he's down to -650. Frankly, I think guys should only be eligible to win ROY in the year they were drafted, but I'm guessing the NBA doesn't care about my opinion. Of course, the Clippers' Blake Griffin missed his entire "rookie" season due to injury and then won ROY in his second. Simmons is a future superstar without question in averaging 16.6 points, 8.6 rebounds and 7.5 assists despite the fact he has no jumper to speak of and can't shoot free throws. Closing on him a bit is Utah's Donovan Mitchell at +400.

Free NBA Picks: Wednesday, Jan. 3, 2018, Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews - 1/2/2018

One of the games of the week in the NBA is Wednesday night when Boston hosts Cleveland in the first of an ESPN doubleheader. It could have been even bigger but not for an odd decision by Cavs coach Tyronn Lue. Of course, the Cavaliers traded Kyrie Irving to Boston this offseason, and one of the pieces they got back was former Celtics fan favorite and All-Star guard Isaiah Thomas. He hadn't played this season due to a hip injury that cut his time in last season's Eastern Conference Finals short. Thomas was set for his Cleveland debut on Tuesday vs. Portland but then wasn't going to play Wednesday in Boston.

Free NBA Picks: Saturday, Dec. 30, 2017, Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews - 12/29/2017

If you watched Minnesota's overtime win over Denver on Wednesday night or saw highlights, then you probably thought what I did when Timberwolves point guard Jeff Teague went down with a knee injury: He's done for the season. Teague was hurt when Denver guard Gary Harris rolled into Teague's lower leg during a scrum for the ball. Minnesota got some good news on the big free-agent acquisition, however, as there were no torn ligaments in that left knee and only a sprained MCL.

Free NBA Picks: Friday, Dec. 29, 2017, Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews - 12/28/2017

The Los Angeles Clippers haven't received much good news thus far in the 2017-18 season, but some good news arrived Friday as All-Star power forward Blake Griffin could return sooner than expected from a sprain of his left medial collateral ligament. Griffin was originally hurt on Nov. 27 and was ruled out eight weeks - so he'll beat that timetable substantially. Griffin was off to a great start, averaging 23.6 points, 7.9 rebounds and 5.1 assists.

Free NBA Picks: Wednesday, Dec. 27, 2017, Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews - 12/26/2017

It's somewhat easy to root against Lonzo Ball simply because his ridiculous father is such a blowhard, but by all accounts Lonzo is a quiet guy and great teammate. The Lakers are much more interesting to watch when he's on the court. Alas, the rookie point guard missed the Christmas Night matchup against the Minnesota Timberwolves and will miss at least a week with a left shoulder sprain. Ball said he the shoulder "pop, kind of" after he got tangled up with Portland's Jusuf Nurkic near the end of the first half of a loss to the Trail Blazers on Saturday.

Free NBA Picks: Tuesday, Dec. 26, 2017, Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews - 12/25/2017

The supposed experts around the NBA were ripping the Chicago Bulls for the return they received in sending All-Star guard Jimmy Butler to Minnesota this past offseason. The Bulls got guard Kris Dunn and Zach LaVine as well as the No. 7 overall pick in the 2017 draft for Butler and the No. 16 pick. While Butler remains a very good player, the Bulls might have won that trade in retrospect. Dunn looks nothing like the lost rookie he did in 2016-17. I'm not saying he will be an All-Star, but he's a quality starting point guard in the NBA and a plus defender. LaVine is getting close to making his Chicago debut off his torn ACL suffered last season. That No. 7 pick became Finnish 7-footer Lauri Markkanen, who might actually be a Dirk Nowitzki-Lite and has been a Top 5 rookie.

Free NBA Picks: Saturday, Dec. 23, 2017, Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews - 12/22/2017

It's fairly easy to spot a trap game in the NFL because teams only play once a week, and when they come off facing an arch-rival in an emotional and physical contest you should always bet against them the next game. That's why at Doc's this week, I have recommended wagering against the New England Patriots and Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 16. It's not quite as easy to find potential trap games in the NBA with the night-to-night grind of an 82-game schedule, but I think there are a few on Saturday's busy schedule because some teams will be looking ahead to big-time matchups on Christmas.

Free NBA Picks: Friday, Dec. 22, 2017, Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews - 12/21/2017

I was in the camp that Chris Paul was vastly overrated but might be slightly changing my mind. Great player, no question, one of the best point guards of his generation. But he reportedly is a total a**hole as a teammate (then again, so was MJ), and how good can someone be when you have never led a team to even the conference finals!?! In fact, Paul has played 76 career playoff games, the most by any player ever without a conference finals appearance. (One of his Clippers teams should have gotten there but absolutely gagged in the 2015 West semis vs. Houston). I believe, barring injury, that will change next May. Paul's Rockets are arguably the NBA's best team right now and should finish no worse than second in the West, meaning they would avoid the Golden State Warriors until the West Finals.

Free NBA Picks: Wednesday, Dec. 20, 2017, Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews - 12/19/2017

I don't recommend betting on the Utah Jazz for the rest of 2017. The Jazz are struggling as it and just lost their best player, center Rudy Gobert, for about a month due to a sprained PCL in his left knee and a bruised tibia. He already had missed 11 games earlier due to a bone bruise in his right knee. Gobert is averaging 11.6 points, 9.6 rebounds and 2.3 blocks this season and is one of the three top difference-makers in the league on defense. Maybe No. 1. So you might also want to consider some over plays on Utah totals for a while, although it can't score much itself.

Free NBA Picks: Tuesday, Dec. 19, 2017, Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews - 12/18/2017

The worst trade in modern NBA history and probably one of the three worst ever was Boston sending that Kevin Garnett/Paul Pierce package to Brooklyn in July 2013 for basically every Nets first-round pick the rest of the decade. Actually, the last one conveys in 2018 (now to Cleveland), but that deal is what will make Boston an Eastern powerhouse for the next five years at least. Perhaps the second worst trade this decade happened in July 2015 when the Sacramento Kings sent a bunch of garbage, led by former lottery pick bust Nik Stauskas, to Philadelphia in a salary dump that landed the 76ers a future first-round pick. That became an unprotected 2019 first-rounder.

Free NBA Picks: Saturday, Dec. 16, 2017, Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews - 12/15/2017

There doesn't seem to be any rhyme or reason to when the various Doc's-affiliated sportsbooks put up NBA MVP futures, but you generally can find them once a week or so. I mention this because the last time I saw the futures, the slight betting favorite was Houston's James Harden over Milwaukee's Giannis Antetokounmpo. They might be the two most unique players in the NBA, and they also happen to rank 1-2 in scoring.

Free NBA Picks: Friday, Dec. 15, 2017, Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews - 12/14/2017

At times this season in this space, I will address a BetOnline special prop the site has had up all year: Which team LeBron James plays his first game with in the 2018-19 regular season. There are odds on every team in the NBA, but obviously he's only going to a contender where some of his buddies play. The latest rumor is that James could sign with the Houston Rockets, who are +250 that prop right now.

NBA Betting Trends: Totals Report for Hot Over and Under Teams
by Aaron Smith - 12/13/2017

Houston has won 10 straight games. It's clear that this Rockets team has at least narrowed the gap with Golden State. Could they beat the Warriors in a series? I don't think so. Still, I'd like to see that series. During their 10-game winning streak, Houston has scored 117 points or more eight times.

Free NBA Picks: Wednesday, Dec. 13, 2017, Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews - 12/12/2017

Count me among those who thought that new Pacers general manager Kevin Pritchard got robbed by Oklahoma City counterpart Sam Presti this offseason when Presti sent "only" guard Victor Oladipo and forward Domantas Sabonis to Indiana for Paul George. Now it looks like Pritchard did quite well as Oladipo has been one of the breakout stars in the league this year and Sabonis a good rotation player. George has been fine in OKC but not quite the superstar level we expected. In fact, the Pacers shockingly have a better record than Oklahoma City.

Free NBA Picks: Monday, Dec. 11, 2017, Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews - 12/11/2017

A couple of things happened late last week that lead me to believe the NBA could expand from 30 to 32 teams within five years or so. The first was that the mayor of Seattle and a private investment group signed a $660 million Memorandum of Understanding, which will renovate KeyArena with it completed by October 2020. It's no secret that the city has wanted the NBA back since about the day after the Sonics moved to Oklahoma City, and Seattle is a great basketball town and deserves an NBA franchise (although I think the NHL will get there first).

Free NBA Picks: Saturday, Dec. 9, 2017, Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews - 12/8/2017

Not like the Phoenix Suns were going anywhere this season, but perhaps you fade them a bit more over the next 2-3 weeks as they will be without leading scorer and their best young player, guard Devin Booker, due to a left adductor strain. Booker already has a 46-point game this season (had a 70-point one last year) and is averaging 24.3 points. This isn't the worst thing to happen to the franchise as the more losses the better to improve lottery chances next May (actually, Phoenix has a minus-6.8 net rating when Booker is on the court).

Free NBA Picks: Friday, Dec. 8, 2017, Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews - 12/7/2017

Has Golden State star Steph Curry ruined Christmas for NBA fans? That's the marquee day of the regular season in The Association and the marquee matchup this year is yet another Warriors-Cavaliers matchup, their first meeting of the season. I assure you that both teams have that circled. However, Curry might not be ready to play by then after seriously spraining his ankle on Monday. Against New Orleans, he attempted to steal a Dante Cunningham pass to the wing when his ankle bent at a gruesome angle. An MRI was negative, but Curry won't even be re-evaluated for two weeks which obviously puts Christmas Day in jeopardy.

Expert NBA Handicapping: Reasons for Houston Rockets Success
by Trevor Whenham - 12/7/2017

It's a week into December, and the Houston Rockets have the best record in the Western Conference. Golden State has two more wins than Houston's 18, but they also have two more losses. Obviously, this doesn't mean that Houston is unquestionably the best team in the NBA, or anything close to that. It does mean, though, that we can really look at the question of whether Houston can be poised to finally be a real challenge for the Warriors. They invested heavily in making themselves a threat. So, are they? Here are five factors to consider when pondering those questions:

Free NBA Picks: Wednesday, Dec. 6, 2017, Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews - 12/5/2017

If it weren't for bad luck, the San Antonio Spurs would have no luck at all this season - at least when it comes to injuries. Of course, superstar Kawhi Leonard has yet to play because of some nebulous quad injury but claims he's "close." Your guess is as good as mine as to when he returns as Coach Gregg Popovich isn't exactly forthcoming with the media. Point guard Tony Parker just debuted a week or so ago from a ruptured quad suffered in last year's playoffs. One guy who has really played well perhaps under the radar this season has been third-year forward Kyle Anderson, averaging 8.9 points, 6.0 rebounds and 3.0 assists in around 27 minutes per night while starting in place of Leonard.