NBA Handicapping Articles

Handicapping Golden State and Denver Battle for Western Conference No. 1 Seed
by Trevor Whenham - 3/1/2019

The Western Conference of the NBA is, at the top, a two-horse race at this point. And it is not likely the showdown that anyone expected. Golden State is there - obviously. But they aren't fighting with Houston or Oklahoma City, and we aren't seeing a Steph and KD vs. LeBron showdown. No, it's Denver that is fighting limb-for-limb with Golden State. Right now, Golden State is a half-game ahead, but only because they have played one more game.

Expert NBA Betting Advice: Handicapping Tanking Teams
by Trevor Whenham - 3/1/2019

There seem to be three truly elite players in the NBA Draft - the top two from Duke, and Ja Morant - and several others who could be very useful. So, it's a good year to have a high draft pick - especially if you can land the top pick and bring in Zion Williamson to save your team. There is a good incentive to tank, then, and some teams are doing a very good job of committing to a tank.

Expert NBA Handicapping: How Bad are the New York Knicks?
by Trevor Whenham - 2/15/2019

To write about the New York Knicks without making fun of them at least a little would be completely impossible. How a team in the greatest city in the world can make the playoffs just three times in 14 years, and not even come remotely close the last five years before this one, is a total mystery. A totally embarrassing mystery. They should be able to attract whoever they want and consistently dominate.

Handicapping the Aftermath of the NBA Trade Deadline
by Trevor Whenham - 2/13/2019

This wasn't the most active NBA trade deadline we have ever seen. In isolation, it was all but irrelevant to the race in the Western Conference. That's not that surprising, as it feels like more than in past years even teams have already conceded the conference title to Golden State. But in the East, there were fireworks. There are probably five teams in the East that are at least somewhat in the mix - and Indiana is a step behind without Victor Oladipo.

Handicapping the NBA Buyout Market
by Trevor Whenham - 2/11/2019

The NBA, in so many ways, is a league that is more interesting off the court than on it. It's not that the games are boring. It's just that the off-court drama is so fascinating and often crazy. Just this past week, for example, we had the trade deadline, and that gave way to the craziness of the all-star draft, and now we are into the bizarreness of the buyout market. Buyouts have been a much bigger deal lately as contenders look to fill out their rosters and address needs in ways they can afford, and players are more empowered to seek their own path than ever.

NBA Betting Results: Studs and Duds Against the Spread
by Trevor Whenham - 1/16/2019

We've just passed the halfway point of the NBA season, and teams are very much establishing what they are. We don't know what the playoffs will look like, but we mostly know which teams are really good, which ones are alright, and which ones have no hope. And we have also gotten a good sense of which teams have respect for bettors' money and which ones prefer to put it all in a pile and light it on fire.

NBA Trade Deadline Handicapping: Buyers and Sellers
by Trevor Whenham - 1/16/2019

The NBA trade deadline is approaching - trades must be completed by 3 p.m. ET on Feb. 7. Some years we see a whole lot of drama and excitement leading up to the deadline - like last year, for example, when big names were flying around. But this year doesn't feel like it is going to be like that. Things could change in a hurry if the Pelicans decided the time is right to move Anthony Davis, but they very likely won't.

Expert NBA Handicapping: Indiana Pacers for Real
by Trevor Whenham - 1/6/2019

The Eastern Conference of the NBA was supposed to be a three-team race this year. The problem, though, is that no one told the Bucks and the Pacers that they weren't invited. The first-place Milwaukee squad, and the third-place team from Indiana, are playing really great basketball, and they aren't going to be easy to displace from their home court perches as the season progresses. Milwaukee is the less surprising of the two teams, but Indiana has been a marvel to watch.

Expert NBA Handicapping: Teams Different in New Year
by Trevor Whenham - 1/5/2019

The turn of the calendar doesn't have actual significance in the NBA, but it is still an interesting milestone. It comes close to the middle of the season, so it is a good time, as we make our own resolutions, to also assess where teams are at and where they might be going. For many teams, what we have seen so far will be some version of what we will see going forward - the Cavs and Bulls aren't going to suddenly learn how to play basketball, and the Thunder or Bucks aren't going anywhere.

Expert NBA Handicapping: Dallas Mavericks Off to Strong Start
by Trevor Whenham - 12/20/2018

Even though the Dallas Mavericks spent most of the first 28 games of the season in a playoff spot in the Western Conference, it would have been tough to truly convince yourself that they were a playoff team. But they certainly are fun to watch and easy to root for. With a young superstar and a strong young core, this is a team clearly moving in the right direction. And they have been a treat for bettors as much as for casual fans this year. So, what is going right for Dallas? And wrong? And what does it mean for bettors?:

Expert NBA Handicapping: Detroit Pistons Looking Like Probable Playoff Team
by Trevor Whenham - 12/20/2018

The Detroit Pistons beat the Timberwolves in overtime in Minneapolis on Wednesday night. It isn't an impressive accomplishment on the surface - the T-Wolves aren't great. And it only moved the Pistons a game above .500 on the season, which is hardly a reason to plan a parade. But they play in the Eastern Conference, so .500 is as good as .600 in the West.

NBA Handicapping and Betting: Sacramento Kings Great for Profits
by Trevor Whenham - 12/20/2018

Do you remember what you were doing in the spring of 2006? That was a very long time ago, so I wouldn't blame you at all if you didn't. I ask only because that spring, the Sacramento Kings, driven by leading scorer Mike Bibby, lost a first-round playoff series to the Spurs 4-2. And that only matters because the Kings have not been in the playoffs since and have only rarely been in a playoff spot at all since then.

Expert NBA Handicapping: Odd Record Splits
by Trevor Whenham - 12/18/2018

If you have watched the NBA for a while, then you probably know how you expect things to generally turn out in the league. Western Conference teams generally do well against the East. Teams are usually better at home than on the road. Familiarity usually makes a team's own division competitive. Most teams fit into those expectations and others like them.

Free NBA Picks: Saturday, Dec. 8, 2018, Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews - 12/7/2018

Look, you should be fading the Atlanta Hawks most nights. They are terrible and planned to be. This is a tanking season. They also made a mistake trading Luka Doncic for Trae Young on draft night, but that's a story for another day. You really should be fading the Hawks for the next three weeks or so because probably their best all-around player, Taurean Prince, is going to miss at least that long with an ankle injury.

Expert NBA Handicapping: Home and Road Differences
by Trevor Whenham - 12/4/2018

In the NBA, the difference between a competent team and a great one is their ability to play well on the road. If you want to make a deep playoff run, you need to limit the number of games you play, and that means winning well away from home - ideally to win half your games away from home. It's no coincidence that the Raptors and Nuggets, the current conference leaders, are also the strongest road team in each conference.

NBA Betting and Handicapping: Studs and Duds Against the Spread
by Trevor Whenham - 11/29/2018

We are, more or less, a quarter of the way through the NBA season. There is a lot left to be played out, and we certainly aren't likely to see the same standings at the end of the year that we do now - on many fronts. But this is a good time to take a step back, look at where we are so far, and see which teams have done well for bettors and which have sunk. Here are the betting studs and duds of the first quarter of the NBA season:

Expert NBA Handicapping: Utah Jazz Off to Rough Start
by Trevor Whenham - 11/29/2018

A whole lot of things in the NBA haven't turned out so far like we expected them to a quarter of the way through the NBA season. The Rockets are struggling badly. The Celtics aren't much better. The Hornets, Clippers and Grizzlies are all division leaders. The blissful happiness in Golden State has dissolved into a pile of bitter resentment.

Expert NBA Handicapping: Betting Teams Out of Playoff Chase Already
by Trevor Whenham - 11/29/2018

It's not even December yet, but for several teams in the NBA it might as well be June. Nothing that happens between now and then is going to make any difference for them. They have played only a quarter of their games, but their seasons are essentially over. There is nothing left to play for. In terms of any competitive sense, all is lost. For the fans of these teams, there is nothing but despair. But for bettors the failure can present real opportunities for profit. At least something good can come from how bad these teams are.

NBA Betting Advice: Handicapping the Golden State Warriors Drama
by Trevor Whenham - 11/21/2018

I was supposed to write about the Warriors a week and a half ago, and it was going to be a very different article than it will be now. A simpler, happier one. That was right before Draymond Green lost his mind and set off a chain of events that could ruin everything that has been built with the Warriors. Or it might not mean anything in the long term. But the uncertainty is something we haven't been used to with this team. They had been so stable and dominant it was almost boring. But it's not boring anymore. Just confusing. So, what do we know?

NBA Betting and Handicapping: Los Angeles Clippers for Real After Hot Start?
by Trevor Whenham - 11/21/2018

Just 24 hours after the Washington Wizards' management group seemingly put every asset they have on the market - including, presumably, the uniforms, if the price is right - the team was understandably in a bit of chaos. They were a lousy team with consistently poor effort at the best of times, and this certainly wasn't going to help.