NBA Handicapping Articles

NBA Betting and Handicapping: Scouting the Week Ahead
by Alan Matthews - 2/18/2013

The NBA is no different than Major League Baseball and the NHL in that the all-star break really isn’t the true halfway point of the season. In fact, every NBA team has played at least 50 of its 82 regular-season games, with the second half set to resume on Tuesday.

NBA Totals Betting: Handicapping Trends Report
by Aaron Smith - 2/15/2013

The all-star break is here. Many players will use these few days as a chance to refuel their bodies after a tiring first half of the season. Bettors can use this time to look inside the numbers and get an edge on the books for the start of the second half. At Doc’s Sports, we like to take a closer look inside the data to help find valuable betting trends. The bi-weekly NBA Hot and Cold Report helps keep bettors up to speed on hot and cold teams as far as covering the number. Totals are another popular way to bet on the NBA, so we are now tracking which teams are trending “over” and which teams are trending “under” versus the posted total.

NBA All-Star Weekend Picks and Odds
by Alan Matthews - 2/14/2013

If you are reading this article hoping that I am going to give you sage advice on whether to pick Team Shaq or Team Chuck in the NBA’s All-Star Weekend Rising Stars game on Friday in Houston (i.e. formerly Rookies-Sophomores game but now a mix of each on both teams), well, move on. Oddsmakers seem to think Team Shaq has the edge as it is a 6.5-point favorite, so there’s that. And Portland’s Damian Lillard, the likely Rookie of the Year in the NBA, is the 6/1 MVP favorite on Bovada, followed by Cleveland’s Kyrie Irving at 9/2 (take Irving, who is a flat-out stud).

NBA Handicapping: Top 5 “Over” Teams for Totals Betting
by George Monroy - 2/14/2013

Following against the spread trends may be one of the most important things a sports bettor can do in order to be a successful gambler. Normal stats and gambling stats, often times, can be two very different things. Teams with the best straight up records do not necessarily have the best ATS records, and vice-versa. Teams with the highest scoring averages do not necessarily go “over” more often than teams with the lowest scoring averages.

NBA Handicapping: Last Chance for Lakers Playoff Run
by Trevor Whenham - 2/13/2013

We can ask the same question now that we asked a couple of months ago, and the answer won’t be any clearer. Will the Lakers make the playoffs? It seems so incomprehensible that a team that invested as heavily in talent as they did in the offseason would be in an uncertain position, but thanks to some injuries and, more significantly, a comically toxic atmosphere, it’s far from certain. The public still seems to believe, though — at least according to the futures odds.

2013 NBA All-Star Weekend Betting Odds
by Dave Schwab - 2/13/2013

Starting Friday of the this week, the NBA will take a four-day break from its regular-season schedule to stage its annual All-Star Game, which over the years as turned into an entire weekend of events. Keeping perfect step with all the action, Bovada has recently posted futures odds for most of the weekend’s events from Houston’s Toyota Center, including the most popular one: the Slam Dunk Contest. The following is a look at a few players to watch if you are looking to wager on any of the action.

NBA Betting and Handicapping: Scouting the Week Ahead
by Alan Matthews - 2/11/2013

It’s a short week of NBA action, with the league going dark after Thursday night’s excellent NBA on TNT doubleheader for the All-Star Game festivities in Houston this weekend. Thus, look for several re-posted futures odds at the various books, including updated scoring champion, Rookie of the Year, division winners, etc. I will be taking a look at the three-point and Dunk contests later this week as well.

NBA Betting Trends: Hot and Cold Teams Against the Point Spread
by Aaron Smith - 2/8/2013

This time next week it will be time for the all-star break. Most players will use that time to rest up and get ready for the second half of the season, while the league’s biggest stars will be on the floor in Houston. Over the course of a long year in the NBA, there will be a lot of streaks and slumps for each team. One thing readers who have kept track of his hot and cold report will notice is that some teams show up in almost every edition, while others are virtually never part of this report. The teams who don’t show up on either side of this list are more consistent, while the ones who do show up on this list frequently are the streaky teams to follow closely.

Against the Spread Trends for NBA Handicapping
by George Monroy - 2/8/2013

Betting on the NBA can be a difficult proposition for a sports bettor. There are well over 1,000 games to wager on each season and multiple games to bet on each night. The overwhelming number of games can be enough to intimidate even the most experienced bettor. If you, as a gambler, do not sit down and do some serious pre-wager analysis, betting the NBA can, at times, be a shot in the dark. The best way to get a grip on the specific ATS trends that matter at the moment would be to analyze each and every team in the NBA — which would be extremely time consuming.

NBA Handicapping: Miami Heat ATS Trends
by George Monroy - 2/8/2013

The Miami Heat are currently in the middle of their first title defense and are being led by their superstar LeBron James, who is having another juggernaut of a season. “The King” is currently averaging 26.8 points, seven assists, and 8.2 rebounds per game and is leading the league in player efficiency rating with a 30.64 mark. If a gambler did not pay close attention to the NBA ATS standings, it would be fair to assume that the Heat were blowing out opponents and covering most of their spreads. And it we did assume as much, we would be wrong. The Miami Heat’s ATS record has been under .500 all season and is one of the worst in the entire NBA.

Rudy Gay NBA Trade Props and Picks
by Alan Matthews - 2/7/2013

The Feb. 21 trade deadline is two weeks from the day of this writing, but the Memphis Grizzlies and Toronto Raptors kicked off the swap meet last week when the Grizzlies essentially executed a salary dump by shipping Rudy Gay to the Raptors. Memphis ended up with Detroit Pistons small forward Tayshaun Prince and Raptors young forward Ed Davis (and a few other minor pieces), while Toronto got Gay and shipped point guard Jose Calderon to Detroit.

NBA Handicapping Impact of Rudy Gay Trade
by Trevor Whenham - 2/7/2013

The dust has settled on the Rudy Gay trade, and the principle players — Gay to Toronto, Jose Calderon to Detroit and Tayshaun Prince and Ed Davis to Memphis — have started to settle into their new homes. It is far too early to have a long-term sense of the winners and losers in this deal, but a week after it happened we have enough distance from it to give it analysis without emotion.

NBA Handicapping: Strong Road Teams
by Trevor Whenham - 2/6/2013

Winning games on the road in the NBA is hard. Very, very hard. Do you know how many teams in the league have a better road winning percentage than they have at home? Just one — the Bulls. On the other hand, there are some pretty good teams that are just terrible when they don’t sleep in their own beds. Indiana, for example, is 20-3 at home but just 10-16 on the road. Denver is 21-3 and 10-15. Utah drops from 18-5 to 9-17. Not all teams are that bad, but most suffer a fairly significant drop off.

NBA Totals Betting: Handicapping Trends Report
by Aaron Smith - 1/31/2013

We haven’t hit the all-star break quite yet, but the NBA is now past the midway point of the season in terms of games played. At Doc’s Sports, we like to take a closer look inside the data to help find valuable betting trends. The bi-weekly NBA Hot and Cold Report helps keep bettors up to speed on hot and cold teams as far as covering the number. Totals are another popular way to bet on the NBA, so we are now tracking which teams are trending “over” and which teams are trending “under” versus the posted total. Please note that all statistics used in this article are for games played from Jan. 17 through Jan. 30.

NBA Handicapping: How Free Throwing Shooting Impacts ATS Records
by George Monroy - 1/31/2013

Free throw shooting is a key aspect of any NBA team’s success throughout the season. Shots from the “charity stripe” — as they are commonly known — can make or break any team during the course of a game. Free throws are, essentially, two free shots and must be taken advantage of, especially late in a game, when teams are looking to foul in hopes of trading one point for two.

NBA ATS Report: Four Teams that Win but Do Not Cover the Spread
by George Monroy - 1/30/2013

One of the most frustrating aspects of sports betting is having a team win a game but not cover the spread. It almost feels like we, as gamblers, are being cheated. If a team cannot muster up the energy to cover the spread, then they shouldn’t get the satisfaction of winning the game, right? I admit, such logic seems a bit spiteful, but that is only because having a team get a victory while failing to cover the spread hurts so darn much.

NBA Handicapping Impact of Rondo’s Season-Ending Injury
by Trevor Whenham - 1/28/2013

Sunday was not a good day to be a Boston Celtics fan. In fact, it likely sucked. Sure, they got a surprising, thrilling win over the Heat, and they got to pretend for one night that Ray Allen made the wrong decision. That didn’t matter, though, as soon as they learned that Rajon Rondo’s hamstring injury he thought he suffered Friday night was actually a torn ACL that will keep him out for the season.

NBA Betting Trends: Hot and Cold Teams Against the Point Spread
by Aaron Smith - 1/25/2013

We’re sitting at almost exactly the midpoint of the NBA season. There are some big surprises to the upside in the league, and there have been some major disappointments. Who could have ever expected that the Golden State Warriors would be nearly 10 games ahead of the Los Angeles Lakers in the standings halfway through the season? That’s why they play the games instead of going by the perceived talent on paper. Who’s streaking and who is slumping right now? Doc’s Sports will be posting an NBA Hot and Cold Report every two weeks this year to help you stay ahead of the game. Please note that statistics in this initial report are from games played between Jan. 10 and Jan. 24.

NBA Handicapping: Closer Look at Orlando Magic ATS
by George Monroy - 1/25/2013

Last summer’s high-profile trade that sent Dwight Howard to Los Angeles was supposed to be the straw that broke the Orlando Magic’s back and the one that sent the franchise into the lottery with the rest of the NBA bottom-feeders. And, while the Magic are certainly one of the worst teams in the league with a record of 14-27, they have been doing far better in the one area that truly matters to sports bettors — against the spread.

2013 NBA MVP Odds and Updated Betting Predictions
by George Monroy - 1/24/2013

The race for the NBA MVP award has been heating up over the last few weeks. What started as a one-man race at the beginning of the season has turned into a closer competition than most experts would have predicted. LeBron James was supposed to run away with the award, but at this point in the season there are no less than three legitimate MVP contenders and a few others that are showing excellent value. Here is quick look at a few of the top candidates in the NBA MVP race along with some odds and updated predictions.