NBA Handicapping Articles
Free NBA Picks: Tuesday, Jan. 9, 2018, Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews - 1/8/2018
Two bad teams have very different motivations for the rest of this NBA season. The Brooklyn Nets don't hold their first-round pick - it goes to Cleveland via Boston - so the Nets aren't going to be tanking any games. They want to build a winning culture and see what guys are going to be part of the future. The Sacramento Kings are on the complete other side of the spectrum. Now that the Nets seem to have a good coach and GM in place and a path to respectability, the Kings have to be called the worst-run organization in the NBA.
NBA Championship Expert Betting Predictions with Title Odds
by Trevor Whenham - 1/5/2018
When we look at who is going to win the NBA Championship it feels like we are pretending. We all know how it is going to turn out, but we have to pretend that there is some drama so we can believe that there is some sort of point to the next five months of basketball. It's like it's all one big season of "Friends". We knew Ross and Rachel would end up together from the second episode, but we still pretended that the next 10 seasons mattered and that there were things to resolve. So, let's pretend that there is something to decide here and make some NBA Championship predictions (odds are from BetOnline):
Free NBA Picks: Saturday, Jan. 6, 2018, Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews - 1/5/2018
There have been two coaches who have been fired thus far this season: the Suns' Earl Watson and Grizzlies' David Fizdale. Phoenix has been a bit better under interim coach Jay Triano, while Memphis has been worse under interim J.B. Bickerstaff, although that's partly due to Mike Conley's injury. Long story shot: neither guy is likely to get the full-time job. My prediction for the next coach fired? Orlando's Frank Vogel. He did a pretty good job at Indiana from 2010-16, but the Magic are going backward in his second season (and there's some talent on that roster!). It's also important to note that Vogel was hired by former GM Rob Hennigan, who was fired after last season.
NBA Betting Trends: Totals Report for Hot Over and Under Teams
by Aaron Smith - 1/4/2018
Things have cycled back around to Golden State having the best record in the NBA as of the new year. No one should be even a little surprised by that. Though other teams get on nice runs and get a lot of coverage, everyone knows the Warriors are the class of the NBA, and they will be very hard to beat in the playoffs.
Free NBA Picks: Friday, Jan. 5, 2018, Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews - 1/4/2018
How close were the Boston Celtics to landing Jimmy Butler? Depends on which report you read, but there seemed to be little question that the Bulls and Celtics had talks about Butler all during last season and that those really heated up ahead of the 2017 draft. After Boston moved down from No. 1 to No. 3 back in June, the Bulls called and offered the Celtics Butler straight-up for the No. 3 overall pick. How do you not take that if you are Danny Ainge?
Free NBA Picks: Thursday, Jan. 4, 2018, Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews - 1/3/2018
Bovada released updated NBA Rookie of the Year odds this week, and there was some interesting movement. Ben Simmons had been a whopping -2000 favorite the last time that site posted odds, but now he's down to -650. Frankly, I think guys should only be eligible to win ROY in the year they were drafted, but I'm guessing the NBA doesn't care about my opinion. Of course, the Clippers' Blake Griffin missed his entire "rookie" season due to injury and then won ROY in his second. Simmons is a future superstar without question in averaging 16.6 points, 8.6 rebounds and 7.5 assists despite the fact he has no jumper to speak of and can't shoot free throws. Closing on him a bit is Utah's Donovan Mitchell at +400.
Free NBA Picks: Wednesday, Jan. 3, 2018, Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews - 1/2/2018
One of the games of the week in the NBA is Wednesday night when Boston hosts Cleveland in the first of an ESPN doubleheader. It could have been even bigger but not for an odd decision by Cavs coach Tyronn Lue. Of course, the Cavaliers traded Kyrie Irving to Boston this offseason, and one of the pieces they got back was former Celtics fan favorite and All-Star guard Isaiah Thomas. He hadn't played this season due to a hip injury that cut his time in last season's Eastern Conference Finals short. Thomas was set for his Cleveland debut on Tuesday vs. Portland but then wasn't going to play Wednesday in Boston.
Free NBA Picks: Saturday, Dec. 30, 2017, Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews - 12/29/2017
If you watched Minnesota's overtime win over Denver on Wednesday night or saw highlights, then you probably thought what I did when Timberwolves point guard Jeff Teague went down with a knee injury: He's done for the season. Teague was hurt when Denver guard Gary Harris rolled into Teague's lower leg during a scrum for the ball. Minnesota got some good news on the big free-agent acquisition, however, as there were no torn ligaments in that left knee and only a sprained MCL.
Free NBA Picks: Friday, Dec. 29, 2017, Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews - 12/28/2017
The Los Angeles Clippers haven't received much good news thus far in the 2017-18 season, but some good news arrived Friday as All-Star power forward Blake Griffin could return sooner than expected from a sprain of his left medial collateral ligament. Griffin was originally hurt on Nov. 27 and was ruled out eight weeks - so he'll beat that timetable substantially. Griffin was off to a great start, averaging 23.6 points, 7.9 rebounds and 5.1 assists.
Free NBA Picks: Wednesday, Dec. 27, 2017, Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews - 12/26/2017
It's somewhat easy to root against Lonzo Ball simply because his ridiculous father is such a blowhard, but by all accounts Lonzo is a quiet guy and great teammate. The Lakers are much more interesting to watch when he's on the court. Alas, the rookie point guard missed the Christmas Night matchup against the Minnesota Timberwolves and will miss at least a week with a left shoulder sprain. Ball said he the shoulder "pop, kind of" after he got tangled up with Portland's Jusuf Nurkic near the end of the first half of a loss to the Trail Blazers on Saturday.
Free NBA Picks: Tuesday, Dec. 26, 2017, Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews - 12/25/2017
The supposed experts around the NBA were ripping the Chicago Bulls for the return they received in sending All-Star guard Jimmy Butler to Minnesota this past offseason. The Bulls got guard Kris Dunn and Zach LaVine as well as the No. 7 overall pick in the 2017 draft for Butler and the No. 16 pick. While Butler remains a very good player, the Bulls might have won that trade in retrospect. Dunn looks nothing like the lost rookie he did in 2016-17. I'm not saying he will be an All-Star, but he's a quality starting point guard in the NBA and a plus defender. LaVine is getting close to making his Chicago debut off his torn ACL suffered last season. That No. 7 pick became Finnish 7-footer Lauri Markkanen, who might actually be a Dirk Nowitzki-Lite and has been a Top 5 rookie.
Free NBA Picks: Saturday, Dec. 23, 2017, Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews - 12/22/2017
It's fairly easy to spot a trap game in the NFL because teams only play once a week, and when they come off facing an arch-rival in an emotional and physical contest you should always bet against them the next game. That's why at Doc's this week, I have recommended wagering against the New England Patriots and Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 16. It's not quite as easy to find potential trap games in the NBA with the night-to-night grind of an 82-game schedule, but I think there are a few on Saturday's busy schedule because some teams will be looking ahead to big-time matchups on Christmas.
Free NBA Picks: Friday, Dec. 22, 2017, Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews - 12/21/2017
I was in the camp that Chris Paul was vastly overrated but might be slightly changing my mind. Great player, no question, one of the best point guards of his generation. But he reportedly is a total a**hole as a teammate (then again, so was MJ), and how good can someone be when you have never led a team to even the conference finals!?! In fact, Paul has played 76 career playoff games, the most by any player ever without a conference finals appearance. (One of his Clippers teams should have gotten there but absolutely gagged in the 2015 West semis vs. Houston). I believe, barring injury, that will change next May. Paul's Rockets are arguably the NBA's best team right now and should finish no worse than second in the West, meaning they would avoid the Golden State Warriors until the West Finals.
Free NBA Picks: Wednesday, Dec. 20, 2017, Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews - 12/19/2017
I don't recommend betting on the Utah Jazz for the rest of 2017. The Jazz are struggling as it and just lost their best player, center Rudy Gobert, for about a month due to a sprained PCL in his left knee and a bruised tibia. He already had missed 11 games earlier due to a bone bruise in his right knee. Gobert is averaging 11.6 points, 9.6 rebounds and 2.3 blocks this season and is one of the three top difference-makers in the league on defense. Maybe No. 1. So you might also want to consider some over plays on Utah totals for a while, although it can't score much itself.
Free NBA Picks: Tuesday, Dec. 19, 2017, Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews - 12/18/2017
The worst trade in modern NBA history and probably one of the three worst ever was Boston sending that Kevin Garnett/Paul Pierce package to Brooklyn in July 2013 for basically every Nets first-round pick the rest of the decade. Actually, the last one conveys in 2018 (now to Cleveland), but that deal is what will make Boston an Eastern powerhouse for the next five years at least. Perhaps the second worst trade this decade happened in July 2015 when the Sacramento Kings sent a bunch of garbage, led by former lottery pick bust Nik Stauskas, to Philadelphia in a salary dump that landed the 76ers a future first-round pick. That became an unprotected 2019 first-rounder.
Free NBA Picks: Saturday, Dec. 16, 2017, Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews - 12/15/2017
There doesn't seem to be any rhyme or reason to when the various Doc's-affiliated sportsbooks put up NBA MVP futures, but you generally can find them once a week or so. I mention this because the last time I saw the futures, the slight betting favorite was Houston's James Harden over Milwaukee's Giannis Antetokounmpo. They might be the two most unique players in the NBA, and they also happen to rank 1-2 in scoring.
Free NBA Picks: Friday, Dec. 15, 2017, Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews - 12/14/2017
At times this season in this space, I will address a BetOnline special prop the site has had up all year: Which team LeBron James plays his first game with in the 2018-19 regular season. There are odds on every team in the NBA, but obviously he's only going to a contender where some of his buddies play. The latest rumor is that James could sign with the Houston Rockets, who are +250 that prop right now.
NBA Betting Trends: Totals Report for Hot Over and Under Teams
by Aaron Smith - 12/13/2017
Houston has won 10 straight games. It's clear that this Rockets team has at least narrowed the gap with Golden State. Could they beat the Warriors in a series? I don't think so. Still, I'd like to see that series. During their 10-game winning streak, Houston has scored 117 points or more eight times.
Free NBA Picks: Wednesday, Dec. 13, 2017, Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews - 12/12/2017
Count me among those who thought that new Pacers general manager Kevin Pritchard got robbed by Oklahoma City counterpart Sam Presti this offseason when Presti sent "only" guard Victor Oladipo and forward Domantas Sabonis to Indiana for Paul George. Now it looks like Pritchard did quite well as Oladipo has been one of the breakout stars in the league this year and Sabonis a good rotation player. George has been fine in OKC but not quite the superstar level we expected. In fact, the Pacers shockingly have a better record than Oklahoma City.
Free NBA Picks: Monday, Dec. 11, 2017, Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews - 12/11/2017
A couple of things happened late last week that lead me to believe the NBA could expand from 30 to 32 teams within five years or so. The first was that the mayor of Seattle and a private investment group signed a $660 million Memorandum of Understanding, which will renovate KeyArena with it completed by October 2020. It's no secret that the city has wanted the NBA back since about the day after the Sonics moved to Oklahoma City, and Seattle is a great basketball town and deserves an NBA franchise (although I think the NHL will get there first).
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