Horse Race Betting and Handicapping Articles

2018 Florida Derby Expert Picks with Odds and Betting Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 3/28/2018

The Florida Derby has, quite simply, become a factory for Kentucky Derby winners in recent years. Three of the last five Derby winners had won this race as their last outing before the big show - Always Dreaming last year, Nyquist the year before, and Orb in 2013. This success is nothing new, either - 20 Triple Crown race winners since 1955 also won this race, including five since Barbaro won the race in 2006. Recently, the race has also become a playground for Todd Pletcher - he has had three of the last four winners, including Always Dreaming last year, who ran the fastest Florida Derby since Alydar in 1978.

2018 Dubai World Cup Expert Picks with Odds and Betting Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 3/28/2018

One of the richest and most important horse races in the world comes around again on Saturday from the Meydan race track in Dubai. The Dubai World Cup has been won by so many legendary horses over the years. From Cigar in the debut event through greats like Silver Charm, Street Cry, Invasor, Curlin, Derby winner Animal Kingdom, to California Chrome, and last year's winner, the fast-burning Arrogate. This is a race where the best of American older horse racing heads across the ocean to test themselves, and they frequently come out on top.

Expert Betting Picks for UAE Derby and Burradon Stakes 2018
by Trevor Whenham - 3/27/2018

The road to the Kentucky Derby goes international this weekend, with key stops in both England and Dubai that are each likely to produce Derby starters. The Burradon Stakes on Friday is the last step on the European Road to the Derby that has been confusing and hasn't really proven anything yet. And the UAE Derby on the Dubai World Cup undercard on Saturday has produced several Derby entrants for several years, but it has yet to produce a real contender.

2018 Louisiana Derby Expert Picks with Odds and Betting Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 3/21/2018

The Louisiana Derby, set for Saturday at Fair Grounds in New Orleans, is an important stop on the Triple Crown trail this year for a couple of reasons. First, while it is only a Grade II, it carries a $1 million purse, and connections are attracted to that likes flies to a garbage can. And second, and as importantly, this is the first of the prep races this year that offers 100 Kentucky Derby qualifying points to the winner and 40 to the runner up.

2018 Sunland Derby Picks with Odds and Expert Betting Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 3/21/2018

I've spent a day at the races at Sunland Park. It's in New Mexico just across the border from El Paso, Texas. It was a great day - the tacos were amazing, and the beer was cold. But it feels so far away from the big time that it is almost impossible to imagine it being relevant. Yet, one weekend a year the big names are drawn to rural New Mexico - Todd Pletcher, Doug O'Neill, Steve Asmussen, Dale Romans, Jerry Hollendorfer, Simon Callaghan. And they bring some pretty serious horse flesh with them.

2018 Rebel Stakes Picks with Odds and Expert Betting Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 3/14/2018

The Triple Crown trail this year so far is, to be frank, pissing me off. Horse after horse has fallen flat when given a great opportunity to establish themselves. The only prep race that has been any good was the San Felipe last weekend, and it was marred by a truly moronic disqualification of the winner. And as good as McKinzie and Bolt d'Oro looked in that race, they dueled so hard against each other that they very likely set themselves up to take a step back in their final prep race.

2018 San Felipe Stakes Expert Picks with Odds and Betting Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 3/8/2018

There is some serious history behind the San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita. First run in 1935, it was restricted to three-year-olds since 1952 and has been that way ever since. Affirmed win it in 1978 en route to his Triple Crown. Sunday Silence, Fusaichi Pegasus and California Chrome all won this race and the Derby, and Real Quiet, Silver Charm and Cavonnier all won the Derby (and the Preakness in the first two cases) after falling short here. Preakness and Belmont winner Point Given, and Pioneerof the Nile, who sired American Pharoah, are also among the winners.

2018 Gotham Stakes Expert Picks and Predictions with Morning Line Odds
by Trevor Whenham - 3/7/2018

The Gotham Stakes, and really all of the Aqueduct prep series, is for suckers. The smart connections in New York head to Florida for the winter and stay warm at Gulfstream or Tampa Bay Downs. But some aren't so lucky, so they get to freeze at the joyless abyss that is Aqueduct.

2018 Tampa Bay Derby Expert Picks and Predictions with Morning Line Odds
by Trevor Whenham - 3/7/2018

The Tampa Bay Derby has been run since 1981, but only since 2007 has it been relevant nationally. That was the year that Street Sense won the race and then the Kentucky Derby. In the decade since, the race has made some surprising impacts. Super Saver was third in Tampa Bay in 2010 before his Derby win, and Tapwrit won this race and the Belmont last year. That's a lot of success in a short time for a race that was recently an afterthought at a track that is far from the best in the country.

2018 Fountain of Youth Expert Picks with Odds and Betting Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 3/1/2018

If I had to pick just one set of prep races to watch each year leading up to the Kentucky Derby, it would be the series at Gulfstream Park - the Holy Bull, Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby. I don't generally love racing at Gulfstream, but these three races are consistently competitive and entertaining. The Fountain of Youth also feels like a shift in the prep schedule every year - things seem to start to get serious when this race comes along.

2018 Risen Star Stakes Picks with Odds and Expert Betting Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 2/15/2018

The Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds in New Orleans marks a big moment on the trail to the Kentucky Derby. It is the first domestic prep race of the year to offer 50 Kentucky Derby qualifying points to the winner. Fifty points will almost certainly be enough to get a spot in the Derby starting gate, so this is essentially a win-and-you're-in race.

2017 Breeders' Cup Classic Expert Picks with Odds and Betting Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 10/31/2017

The Breeders' Cup Classic is very well named - the race is very often a classic. We have been spoiled the last few years - Arrogate's duel with California Chrome, American Pharoah's brilliant swan song, Bayern crashing the Shared Belief party. Early this year it was tough to get excited about this race because the older horse field seemed to be made up of one horse, and the three-year-olds were underwhelming.

Free Breeders Cup Betting Advice and Picks: Live Long Shots
by Trevor Whenham - 10/31/2017

The Breeders' Cup is a two-day betting frenzy - an almost endless stream of handicapping and joy. And part of what makes it so great is the long shots. You have 13 chances for a long shot to come through, pay off big, and give you bragging rights for years to come. After looking over all 168 horses entered in the Breeders' Cup, here are the five that stand out the most as live long shots. I define long shot at 15/1 or better, but all of these horses are likely to go off at higher than these morning line prices.

2017 Breeders' Cup Turf Expert Picks with Odds and Betting Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 10/31/2017

The Breeders' Cup Turf - the annual American playground for European runners. In 33 editions of the race, the winner has come from over the big pond 21 times. Two trainers have dominated when coming from Europe. Sir Michael Stoute has won the race four times. And Aidan O'Brien, who has already set a world record for the most Grade 1 race wins in a year this year, has won it four times in the last six years. Both will be factors again here - Stoute has the likely favorite, and among O'Brien's multiple starters is the defending champion. Here's how the top of the likely fully-subscribed field sets up this year:

2017 Breeders' Cup Expert Handicapping and Advice: Horses to Watch
by Trevor Whenham - 10/31/2017

We've broken down the key Breeders' Cup races. So now is a good time to take a step back and look at the horses that stand out as interesting beyond the favorites and most obvious picks. We'll look at live long shots as well, but what I want to focus on here is the group of horses that exist between the favorites and the long shots. These are the mid-priced horses which, for one reason or another, have found their way into my imagination. There aren't any certain winners here, but each feels at least a little better than the odds suggest and each has a high ceiling:

2017 Breeders' Cup Mile Expert Picks with Odds and Betting Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 10/31/2017

We've been so spoiled by the Breeders' Cup Mile in recent years. Goldikova, Wise Dan, Tepin - it's been a ridiculous stretch of legends here. Unfortunately, this is not the kind of field we have become used to. There are some nice horses here and all, but none are even approaching the legend status of those that I mentioned. This could still be one of the best races of the weekend, but the last few years we knew it would be, and now we just have to wait and see. Here's how the top of this field sets up this year:

2017 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Expert Picks with Odds and Betting Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 10/31/2017

There are two different types of fields in the Juvenile. Some years there is a wide-open group of talented runners, and we need the race to see who actually is any good. Anything can happen, and it makes the race very tough to handicap - though usually lucrative if you do figure it out. Other years there is one colt that towers over the field, and the race is all about seeing if he is worthy of the hype. If he is then he'll run away with the division title and face massive Derby expectations. If he isn't then someone will win at a fat price, and bettors will be left to figure out what it all means.

2017 Breeders' Cup Sprint Expert Picks with Odds and Betting Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 10/31/2017

The last time we had a defending champion win the Breeders' Cup Sprint, Bob Baffert was the trainer. Midnight Lute won the race in 2007, ran only once before the Breeders' Cup in 2008, and added a second title. It was an unconventional path, but Beffert obviously liked it. This year Drefong is back after winning last year for Baffert, and he has just one race since his big win (sort of two starts, but more on that later). Baffert has the slightly bizarre recipe for success, but Midnight Lute is the only horse to win the Sprint, which is typically the most volatile and unpredictable race on the card, twice.

2017 Breeders' Cup Distaff Expert Picks with Odds and Betting Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 10/31/2017

It's an interesting edition of the Breeders' Cup Distaff this year. There are some very good horses here, but there is no superstar in the field. Beholder and Songbird have retired. Legends like Royal Delta and Zenyatta are long gone. This race promises to be as good as it always is, but the approach is different this time. It's not about worshipping the current goddess of the sport but more about breaking down a small but deep-and-talented field.

2017 Futurity Stakes Expert Picks with Odds and Betting Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 10/13/2017

All summer and fall we have been previewing major prep races for the Breeders' Cup weekend. With that even just three weeks away, this is the last race we will look at. We turn to the juvenile category this week (with one exception) with the Futurity Stakes from Belmont. It's a small field, and there won't be anything close to a Breeders' Cup favorite coming out of here, but these six horses are vying for their shot at glory on the opposite coast in three weeks. And predictably it's a pretty stellar trainer showdown at the top of the race.