College Football Handicapping Articles

NCAA Football Betting: Fading the Top 25 Weekly Free Picks Week 4
by Aaron Smith - 9/22/2015

If you faded the Top 25 in general last week, you did really well. Top 25 teams went 10-14 against the spread last week. No team ranked in the top six of last week's rankings covered the spread. Baylor had the week off, but the other five all lost against the number. Ohio State won by a touchdown as a 35-point favorite. Alabama lost outright to Ole Miss. Michigan State won by only 14 against Air Force. TCU gave up 37 points against SMU and didn't get even close to covering the spread. USC lost outright 41-31 to Stanford on their home field.

NCAA Football Predictions: Week 4 Opening Line Report and Picks
by Alan Matthews - 9/21/2015

Do we have a quarterback controversy at Ohio State? You almost knew this was going to happen with two such talented guys in Cardale Jones and J.T. Barrett. Buckeyes coach Urban Meyer decided not to commit to either of those guys on Monday. Really, neither has been fantastic yet.

NCAA Football Odds: Line Movements & Last-Minute News for Week 3
by Alan Matthews - 9/18/2015

I live in the South, but I am not an SEC fan. I think SEC coaches and fans are incredibly arrogant -- often with good reason, sadly, because it's the best conference in college football. But sometimes it's overrated. I believe that was the case last season -- just look at the SEC West's bowl results -- and is again in 2015. Last week was not a good one for the SEC.

Free NCAA Football Picks: Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Notre Dame Fighting Irish
by Trevor Whenham - 9/17/2015

Georgia Tech is averaging 67 points per game! Sure, they haven't really played anyone - Alcorn State and Tulane. Still, 134 points is more than 19 touchdowns. In two games. That is impressive no matter how you slice it. It's no new thing, either - they have scored at least 28 points in their last 10 games, and they put up 49 in their bowl game against Mississippi State last year.

College Football Betting and Handicapping: Ranking the Conferences ATS
by Trevor Whenham - 9/17/2015

There is always a danger in paying too much attention to the performance of conferences as opposed to individual teams. After all, it's the teams that have to play each game, not the conferences as a whole. Still, by evaluating the performance of conferences from a betting perspective we can get a sense of how they are performing - and, most importantly, how that performance matches up to the perception of the betting public.

College Football Handicapping: Michigan Wolverines have Room for Growth
by Trevor Whenham - 9/17/2015

At this point in the college football season people are already locked in on the Top 25 teams and those on the fringes. That only makes sense. It can make it easy for people to overlook teams that are solid if not elite - especially if those teams had a rough opening weekend or two to dim expectations of the squad. Once a team is off the radar, the public often doesn't give them enough credit, and that can lead to pleasant betting opportunities - even on high-profile teams that typically get a lot of public love.

College Football Handicapping: Struggles for the Pac-12
by Trevor Whenham - 9/17/2015

When you are evaluating college football you can't help but compare conferences and their performance. That is especially true at this time of year when conference play, for the most part, hasn't begun yet. In conference play every win by a team means a loss for another team in the conference - it's a zero sum game.

NCAA Football Mid-Major Betting Report: Temple Owls Week 3
by Aaron Smith - 9/16/2015

Time for the Week 3 edition of the college football mid-major betting report. This is the fourth year for this article at Doc's Sports. The goal of this weekly article is to attempt to show that specialization is a profitable betting strategy. For the mid-major betting report, we follow one team throughout the season and make selections on their games on a weekly basis. Temple was picked this year because of the intrigue surrounding the conference as well as their ability to have a breakout season.

NCAA Football Betting: Fading the Top 25 Weekly Free Picks Week 3
by Aaron Smith - 9/15/2015

The goal of this article is to track how teams in the weekly Top 25 do against the spread. We're here to look a little deeper than most and figure out how the top-ranked teams do at the betting window. In addition, in this weekly article I'll be taking a look at which Top 25 teams I think are best to fade that particular week.

NCAA Football Predictions: Week 3 Opening Line Report and Picks
by Alan Matthews - 9/14/2015

Devastating loss for Notre Dame in Week 2 as quarterback Malik Zaire broke his ankle in Saturday's win at Virginia and will miss the rest of the season. So hopefully you didn't put any money down on his Heisman chances -- or the Irish's national title chances, because I think they just vanished.

NCAA Football Odds: Line Movements & Last-Minute News
by Alan Matthews - 9/11/2015

Welcome to my first late-week college football update story. If you read Doc's every Monday, and you certainly should be doing so, then you know I do an Opening Line NCAA Report that day for the coming week. Obviously, the lines are going to change dramatically on a handful of games from Monday to kickoff on Saturday (I will only look at Saturday games here). Sometimes it's because major injuries are revealed or others simply because bettors are hammering one side with heavy action. Here are a few examples.

Betting Odds and Predictions for the College Football Playoff in 2016
by Trevor Whenham - 9/11/2015

If the first year of the College Football Playoff system last year taught us anything, it is that we need to be patient. There is no point in panicking and reading too much into one week or even one month. It is a very long season, and a whole lot will change between now and when the four playoff teams are known to us.

Free College Football Picks: Oregon Ducks at Michigan State Spartans Odds
by Trevor Whenham - 9/10/2015

Things suddenly get very real for these two National Championship contenders - or at least these two teams that think that they are National Championship contenders. They both won their openers - while making their outmatched opponents look a little better than they probably should have. Now they are playing for national respectability.

NCAA Football Mid-Major Betting Report: Temple Owls Week 2
by Aaron Smith - 9/9/2015

The college football mid-major betting report is back for a fourth season here at Doc's Sports. The goal of this weekly article is to attempt to show that specialization is a profitable betting strategy. For the mid-major betting report, we follow one team all year long and make selections on that particular team's games on a weekly basis. Temple was selected this year because of the intrigue surrounding the team and the American Athletic Conference as a whole.

NCAA Football Betting: Fading the Top 25 Weekly Free Picks Week 2
by Aaron Smith - 9/8/2015

College football is underway! It was a good first week of college football, and I expect the action to just continue to get better on a weekly basis as we get more meaningful games. The Fading the Top 25 Weekly Free Picks report is back for the third edition. Last year was our first year for this report. Thanks to solid interest and some interesting findings, we wanted to keep this one going again this season.

NCAA Football Predictions: Week 2 Opening Line Report and Picks
by Alan Matthews - 9/7/2015

My biggest takeaways from Week 1 of the college football season? Three national title contenders suffered major injuries, and the Big Ten is not very good. Let's start with the injuries. Notre Dame's leading returning rusher, Tarean Folston, was lost for the season with a knee injury in what was otherwise a thoroughly impressive 38-3 win over Texas on Saturday (may want to update your resume, Charlie Strong). Last year, Folston rushed for 889 yards and six touchdowns.

2015 College Football Betting Advice: What we Learned from Week 1
by Trevor Whenham - 9/7/2015

It's only one week. That's what you need to remind yourself. One week in the college football season is nothing. Some teams that look great now will be nowhere to be seen by December. You can also bet that a team that looked less than average right now will be in the playoff. So, while we don't really know anything yet, we do know more than we did a week ago when all we could do is guess about where teams were going to be at.

Free College Football Picks: Purdue Boilermakers at Marshall Thundering Herd
by Alan Matthews - 9/4/2015

I would argue this Sunday is the worst Sunday for a sports betting fan until Feb. 7. Why? We are on the eve of the NFL football season -- so close yet so far! -- but there's no action among the professionals this Sunday. There will be every Sunday afterward until Feb. 7, which is the Sunday after Super Bowl 50. OK, technically we only get the stupid Pro Bowl in the Sunday in between the conference championship games and the Super Bowl, but you have all those Super Bowl props to analyze and tide you over.

Free Expert College Football Picks: Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Wisconsin Badgers
by Trevor Whenham - 9/3/2015

How important is a quarterback? That is really what this game comes down to. As I sit writing this just two days before the game is set to kick off, Alabama has not announced who their starting QB will be. This isn't like Michigan, either - Jim Harbaugh isn't announcing his starter because he's Jim Harbaugh, but everyone including his opponents know who it will be. Here we have three guys who could start, and none who have seemingly grabbed the job as their own.

Free NCAA Football Picks: Virginia at UCLA Expert Predictions
by Alan Matthews - 9/3/2015

I'd argue the Bruins have the one of the most talented teams in the nation and the most in the Pac-12 with 18 starters back. There are future NFL players all over the field, coached by Mora, a past and likely future NFL coach. Just one problem: UCLA is starting a true freshman under center, and the only true freshman quarterback to win a National Championship was Oklahoma's Jamelle Holieway in 1985.