College Football Handicapping Articles

College Football Betting Advice: How to Handicap the Worst ATS Teams Last Season
by Trevor Whenham - 8/26/2016

Here's the thing - sometimes college football teams that are terrible at covering spreads are more attractive than teams that are pretty good at covering them. A bad team is more likely to be consistently bad, and bettors can take advantage just by consistently betting against them. It takes a long time for a bad team to quit being bad, too, so it only makes sense that we should look at the college football teams that were the worst at covering spreads last year, because there is a good chance that several of them will struggle to cover spreads this year, too.

College Football Handicapping: Early-Season Nonconference Major Mismatches
by Trevor Whenham - 8/26/2016

September is the time in college football for ridiculous matchups. Each year we see countless games between truly elite teams and either mid-level FCS teams or barely competent teams from smaller conferences in FBS. These games are usually played at the home field of the better team, and in almost every case the game is essentially over before it starts. The good teams only play the games because they have to play 12 games, but they don't want every one of them to be tough. The bad teams only play for the paycheck - they typically get paid more for these games than they can make hosting a home game of their own.

NCAA Football Mid-Major Free Betting Picks: Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders Season Predictions
by Aaron Smith - 8/24/2016

The mid-major report returns for a sixth straight season here at Doc's Sports. The goal of this article is to show that specialization is a profitable betting strategy. For the mid-major betting report, we select one team to follow closely all year long. This year it will be the Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders. I'll be closely monitoring everything about this team. I will put together a weekly article with a selection on that game at the end of each article.

College Football Handicapping: How to Bet Teams that Lost Long-Term Quarterback
by Trevor Whenham - 8/23/2016

Every year we see college football teams that have to deal with the absence of a quarterback who has been a mainstay for a long time. Oftentimes those departed quarterbacks are stars who have shaped the recent years of the programs and will inevitably be missed - Jared Goff at Cal, Paxton Lynch at Memphis, Dak Prescott at Mississippi State, Connor Cook at Michigan State, Kevin Hogan at Stanford, and so on.

College Football Betting and Wagering Advice: Potential Surprise Teams
by Trevor Whenham - 8/19/2016

There are teams in college football that are very easy to predict. Alabama and Florida State are going to be very good, for example, and Illinois and Virginia really, really aren't. You don't need to go out on a limb to make those predictions, and the betting public will be all over those. It's not likely that there will be much betting value with those squads.

College Football Handicapping Advice: Early-Season Neutral-Site Games
by Trevor Whenham - 8/19/2016

Neutral-site games are, for better or worse, becoming a bigger and bigger part of the first weeks of the college football season. The first week of this year's schedule alone has nine different neutral-site games, and several are gimmicky almost to the point of being ridiculous. The reason for the increase in neutral-site games is obvious - they make money, and college programs and leagues love money more than anything.

College Football Handicapping and Wagering Advice: Under-the-Radar Quarterbacks
by Trevor Whenham - 8/18/2016

It promises to be a special year for quarterback play in college football. Deshaun Watson of Clemson is the current Heisman favorite in futures betting at BetOnline. Baker Mayfield, J.T Barrett, Chad Kelly and Josh Rosen are all in the top eight in those futures, too, and guys like Greg Ward Jr., Brad Kaaya, Joshua Dobbs, Seth Russell and others are getting plenty of hype as well.

2016 San Diego State Aztecs Football Predictions and Season Win Total Picks
by Robert Ferringo - 8/18/2016

Last year the Aztecs found themselves sitting at 1-3 after a sloppy three-game losing streak that included an upset home defeat as a 17-point favorite. But Rocky Long's team wouldn't lose another game, reeling off 10 straight wins, including victories in the Mountain West title game and a 42-7 thrashing of Cincinnati in the Hawaii Bowl.

2016 Boise State Broncos Football Predictions and Season Win Total Picks
by Robert Ferringo - 8/18/2016

The shiny veneer of Boise State's sophomore season in the Mountain West glossed over what was, in actuality, a disappointing season for the Broncos. Boise State brought back 17 starters from the 2014 squad that went 12-2. But the Broncos managed just one impressive win, an emotional season opener against Washington, while taking some ugly losses, including a shocking home loss to New Mexico as a 31-point favorite.

2016 Air Force Falcons Football Predictions and Season Win Total Picks
by Robert Ferringo - 8/18/2016

Troy Calhoun has quietly been doing tremendous work with this Air Force program. Military academies have a lot of built-in disadvantages - not the least of which is the fact that Air Force's enrollment is 4,000 compared to say, Ohio State's, which is 57,000. But Calhoun has kept the Falcons competitive during his nine-year tenure, earning a 67-50 record while posting just one losing season.

2016 Colorado State Rams Football Predictions and Season Win Total Picks
by Robert Ferringo - 8/18/2016

Colorado State has only 10 starters back this year, it's fewest since the 3-9 team in 2010. But at least Bobo has his quarterback set. Nick Stevens made second team all-league last year and showed a solid command of the offense. However, Stevens lost his top four receivers, including stud Rashard Higgins, and some new options will have to emerge.

2016 UNLV Rebels Football Predictions and Season Win Total Picks
by Robert Ferringo - 8/18/2016

Tony Sanchez likely won't be able to turn around this perpetual Titanic of a football program. But he sure is trying to by force of sheer will. Sanchez, a renowned local high school coach, led a roster purge last year and quickly turned the Rebels into a feisty Mountain West competitor. After being outscored by 18 points per game in 2014, UNLV was outmatched by only five points per game last fall.

2016 San Jose State Spartans Football Predictions and Season Win Total Picks
by Robert Ferringo - 8/18/2016

A scan over the last 15 years of San Jose football shows a pretty clear trend of steady peaks and valleys. Over the last 14 years, SJSU football has either increased or decreased its win total in back-to-back years five times. Only once during that time - when they dropped from nine wins in 2006 to five wins in 2007 only to bounce up to six wins in 2008 - did they buck that trend.

2016 Fresno State Bulldogs Football Predictions and Season Win Total Picks
by Robert Ferringo - 8/18/2016

Fresno State football could be becoming a cautionary tale for mid-major college football programs. Once a well-respected, will-play-anyone-anywhere team under Pat Hill, the Bulldogs have backslid in a major way the past two seasons. They are still trying to figure out life after Derek Carr (and Hill). And as I look at this team I don't see a lot of cause for optimism.

2016 Hawaii Warriors Football Predictions and Season Win Total Picks
by Robert Ferringo - 8/18/2016

Poor old Norm Chow, who was simply lost in four years on the Hawaii sideline, was finally put out to pasture. Hawaii went the complete opposite way for its new head coach, hiring a guy (Nick Rolovich, 36) that is nearly half the age of their former coach (Chow, 70).

2016 New Mexico Lobos Football Predictions and Season Win Total Picks
by Robert Ferringo - 8/18/2016

I was one of the few football handicappers in the country that was buying into New Mexico last season. And they came through in a big way, posting their highest win total since 2007 and earning their first bowl bid of the decade. They pulled the upset of the year in college football, beating Boise State outright as a 31-point underdog, and cashed as a nine-point underdog while almost upsetting Arizona in the New Mexico Bowl.

2016 Utah State Aggies Football Predictions and Season Win Total Picks
by Robert Ferringo - 8/18/2016

For the first time in what seems like 12 years, Utah State enters the season with someone other than Chuckie Keeton projected to be under center. The six-year Aggie was one of the best players in school history, even with injuries sabotaging his final few seasons.

2016 Nevada Wolf Pack Football Predictions and Season Win Total Picks
by Robert Ferringo - 8/18/2016

After back-to-back 7-6 seasons Nevada could be ready to lurch forward and throw itself back into the discussion of the top teams in the Mountain West. They have quietly been one of the most consistent programs in the league the last 10 years, posting eight winning seasons and making a bowl game in nine of the last 10 campaigns. So it says something when some claim that Brian Polian is working with one of the best teams that he has had in Reno.

2016 Wyoming Cowboys Football Predictions and Season Win Total Picks
by Robert Ferringo - 8/18/2016

Craig Bohl's squad took a big step back in 2015, winning just two games and posting their most losses in over 10 years. But teams typically show improvement in a coach's third season at the helm. And for the sake of Bohl's job security, he better hope the Cowboys at least find a way to be competitive this fall.

College Football Betting Advice: Teams Over-Ranked in Coaches Poll
by Trevor Whenham - 8/17/2016

The Coaches Poll has issues. There is no denying that. It seems ridiculous to ask guys who work on Saturdays to vote on Saturday night on how teams played when it is very unlikely that they saw more than two actually play. And then there is the whole fact that so few coaches actually fill out their own ballots, or the fact that some coaches aren't even subtle about using their votes to air grievances. Still, for whatever reason, the poll is one of the two most important in existence.