Baseball Handicapping Articles

Five to Follow Expert MLB Betting Picks: 8/16/2017, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 8/15/2017

The most important game for the Dodgers on Wednesday has nothing to do with their big-league club hosting the Chicago White Sox. No, that would be a scheduled simulated game by ace and three-time Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw. It's the next step in his recovery from back pain after throwing 35 pitches in a bullpen session on Friday and then 50 on Sunday. The plan is for the lefty to throw a two-inning simulated game at Dodger Stadium on Wednesday. If he's all good after that, the Dodgers think he may need just one true rehab start in the minors.

Five to Follow Expert MLB Betting Picks: 8/15/2017, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 8/14/2017

The Washington Nationals' chances of reaching the first World Series in franchise history remain alive. I'm not saying that's going to happen, but I would have felt quite confident in saying it wouldn't have if star outfielder Bryce Harper had suffered a season-ending knee injury. It sure looked bad when Harper slipped on a wet first base in the first inning of Saturday's 3-1 victory over the Giants. While trying to avoid contact with first baseman Ryder Jones before his left foot slipped on the base, Harper's leg buckled, he went airborne and he fell to the ground.

Five to Follow Expert MLB Betting Picks: 8/12/2017, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 8/11/2017

You probably shouldn't be backing the Mets very often as it is unless Jacob deGrom is pitching, but I'd certainly consider fading them the rest of the season soon (again, unless deGrom is on the bump). New York traded slugger Jay Bruce on Wednesday to Cleveland for shockingly little: 22-year-old minor-league pitcher Ryder Ryan. He was a 30th-round pick by Cleveland in 2016 and 3-4 with a 4.79 ERA in Class A this season. The Mets couldn't get more for a guy hitting .256 with 29 homers and 75 RBIs? They do save about $4.2 million remaining on Bruce's salary.

Five to Follow Expert MLB Betting Picks: 8/11/2017, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 8/10/2017

The Houston Astros are going to win the AL West, the Washington Nationals will take the NL East and the Los Angeles Dodgers shall claim the NL West for a fifth straight season as all three of those clubs have huge divisional leads. What we don't know yet is which other seven teams will join that trio in the playoffs, but MLB has released the postseason schedule. The AL Wild-Card Game will be Tuesday, Oct. 3 on ESPN and the NL game the next day on TBS. Both ALDS will begin on Oct. 5 and both NLDS on Oct. 6.

Five to Follow Expert MLB Betting Picks: 8/10/2017, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 8/9/2017

The longest playoff drought in baseball belongs to the Seattle Mariners, and because of two recent pitching injuries you can probably stick a fork in their wild-card hopes this season even though they are still in the race. Over the weekend, the team lost former ace Felix Hernandez and trade-deadline pickup reliever David Phelps to the DL. If both were to miss the minimum amount of time, maybe no big deal.

Five to Follow Expert MLB Betting Picks: 8/9/2017, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 8/8/2017

Monday was the 26th birthday of Angels superstar outfielder Mike Trout, who somehow lasted until the 25th pick of the 2009 draft. The No. 1 pick that year was Stephen Strasburg by Washington, and you can't really argue with that as Strasburg was one of the best college pitchers ever. If you are wondering, the Angels also picked 24th that year and took a high school outfielder named Randal Grichuk, who of course is now with St. Louis. At No. 26 overall, Milwaukee took some pitcher named Eric Arnett. Trout is one of just five players to reach his 26th birthday with 190 homers and 500 walks.

Five to Follow Expert MLB Betting Picks: 8/8/2017, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 8/7/2017

Kansas City's chances of winning the AL Central or grabbing a wild-card spot took a hit over the weekend when All-Star catcher Salvador Perez was placed on the disabled list with an intercostal strain. He could miss up to four weeks. Perez is probably the most important Royal as he's hitting .278 with 21 homers and 65 RBIs while playing great defense and being a strong pitch framer, etc. He was fourth in the majors in innings caught. It's Perez's first trip to the disabled list since 2012 when he had a knee injury.

Five to Follow Expert MLB Betting Picks: 8/5/2017, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 8/4/2017

Here's hoping that Miami's Giancarlo Stanton wins the home run title this season, which he is favored to do at BetOnline, as the sports fans in south Florida could use some good news. It's been a rough calendar year or so down there. The Marlins stink and lost their face of the franchise, Jose Fernandez, in a fatal boating accident late last season. Pitcher Edinson Volquez, who threw a no-hitter earlier this year, was to have Tommy John surgery Friday and potentially miss all of 2018 - while being paid $13 million in the final year of his contract.

Five to Follow Expert MLB Betting Picks: 8/4/2017, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 8/3/2017

I'll admit that I'm a Cubs fan, although as a baseball writer I don't let that color my betting choices. My first thought Tuesday night when Washington ace and Cy Young favorite Max Scherzer left early against the Marlins was that the Cubbies were returning to the NLCS if that was serious. The Nationals already have their second-best pitcher, Stephen Strasburg, on the disabled list with a nerve impingement in his pitching elbow, and he hasn't proven able to stay healthy by the end of a season.

Five to Follow Expert MLB Betting Picks: 8/3/2017, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 8/2/2017

I just want to remind readers that while the non-waiver trade deadline passed on Monday, that doesn't mean there still won't be deals. Now teams will place most of the veterans on their roster on waivers just to see what happens. Waiver order works in reverse order of standings, and you are going to see guys claimed just to block other contending teams from potentially acquiring them (especially teams in the same division).

Five to Follow Expert MLB Betting Picks: 8/2/2017, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 8/1/2017

It appears there are two clear winners from Monday's trade deadline, and they are the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers as they landed the top starting pitchers on the market and didn't touch the major-league roster to get them. The Bombers, who already might have the majors' deepest bullpen, landed Sonny Gray from the A's for three top prospects, and the good thing about Gray is he's under team control for two more seasons. The Yankees had to do something after losing Michael Pineda to a season-ending injury and Masahiro Tanaka struggling.

Five to Follow Expert MLB Betting Picks: 8/1/2017, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 7/31/2017

If you aren't fading the Chicago White Sox by now, then you simply aren't paying attention. On Sunday, the Pale Hose traded essentially the last valuable asset (assuming Jose Abreu is untouchable for now) in outfielder Melky Cabrera to Kansas City for two minor-league pitchers. With All-Star Avisail Garcia out at least two weeks with a thumb injury, there are maybe four legitimate major-leaguers now in the everyday lineup: Abreu, second baseman Yoan Moncada, third baseman/DH Matt Davidson and shortstop Tim Anderson, who's having a disappointing season.

Five to Follow Expert MLB Betting Picks: 7/29/2017, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 7/28/2017

At some point this weekend, Texas Rangers third baseman Adrian Beltre could become the 31st member of baseball's 3,000-hit club and only the fourth third baseman to do so, joining Hall of Famers Paul Molitor (who played DH late in his career), George Brett and Wade Boggs. Of the 30 players to get to 3,000 career hits, everyone is either in the Hall of Fame, will be when eligible (Derek Jeter and Ichiro Suzuki), is banned from baseball (Pete Rose) or has a PED issue (Alex Rodriguez and Rafael Palmeiro).

MLB Betting Trends: Totals Report for Hot Over and Under Baseball Teams
by Aaron Smith - 7/28/2017

Most teams have played at least 100 games now, so we are more than 60 percent of the way finished with the season. Some of the early-season surprises have tailed off lately such as the Twins and the Brewers. What about the surprise teams that keep winning? The Diamondbacks and Rockies have both consistently been good in the NL West.

Five to Follow Expert MLB Betting Picks: 7/28/2017, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 7/27/2017

When you are a bad team at this point in the season - i.e. a few days ahead of the trade deadline - you are caught in a bit of a Catch-22. You don't want to sit your most tradeable players as you still need to try, especially at home. But you also don't want to risk injury to them. The Cincinnati Reds are unquestionably sellers ahead of Monday's non-waiver trade deadline. Unfortunately for them, their top trade chip is likely shortstop Zack Cozart, and there are really no contenders that need a shortstop … unless Houston wants Carlos Correa insurance.

Five to Follow Expert MLB Betting Picks: 7/27/2017, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 7/26/2017

At BetOnline, Yankees rookie Aaron Judge remains the -145 favorite to become the AL MVP and become the third player in history to win Rookie of the Year and MVP in the same season. My money, however, will be going on Houston's Jose Altuve, whom I thought should have won MVP last year.

Five to Follow Expert MLB Betting Picks: 7/26/2017, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 7/25/2017

Here's hoping you took my advice during the All-Star break when I recommended betting on slight underdog Max Scherzer of the Nationals to repeat as the Cy Young winner this year over three-time winner and favored Clayton Kershaw. You can all but rule out Kershaw from that race as he's expected to miss 4-6 weeks following an initial diagnosis of an injured back. He's still going to see a specialist, but the Dodgers feel confident about that timeline and that he won't miss two-and-a-half months like he did last year with a herniated disk.

Five to Follow Expert MLB Betting Picks: 7/25/2017, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 7/24/2017

Apparently the uncertainty over when the Marlins will be sold and to whom will stop the team from conducting a fire sale ahead of the July 31 trade deadline. Marlins president of baseball operations Michael Hill told the media Sunday that he has no intention of dealing Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, Justin Bour, J.T. Realmuto, Marcell Ozuna or Dan Straily at the deadline. Now, obviously the guy isn't going to come out and say he's shopping some of his best players, but Hill added that any major deals be better left in the hands of the Marlins' new ownership. That makes sense.

Five to Follow Expert MLB Betting Picks: 7/22/2017, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 7/22/2017

There has been a change on the BetOnline prop for which player leads the majors in homers in 2017. Yankees rookie Aaron Judge has been the favorite for months, but he's ice cold since the All-Star break. Judge has been caught at 30 homers (as of this writing) by Miami's red-hot Marlin Giancarlo Stanton (who was surprisingly knocked out in the first round of the All-Star Home Run Derby won by Judge).

Five to Follow Expert MLB Betting Picks: 7/21/2017, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 7/20/2017

The next week or so is likely to determine the future of the Pittsburgh Pirates not just this year but also for 2018. The Bucs got back arguably their best all-around position player Tuesday in outfielder Starling Marte. He leads all Pirates offensive players in WAR, batting average and stolen bases the past two seasons. Marte had tested positive for PEDs early in the season - of course he has no idea how that happened -- and was suspended 80 games.