Baseball Handicapping Articles

MLB Spring Training Betting Advice and Expert Baseball Handicapping
by Trevor Whenham - 2/21/2019

The preseason in every sport is a painful experience from a viewing perspective. With one exception - there are few pleasures greater for a baseball fan than settling into the stands in Arizona or Florida and watching some spring baseball. It's an unadulterated joy. And because it can be so fun to watch, and because it draws big crowds and generates plenty of excitement, there are people that get the idea that betting on spring training games would be a good idea, too.

MLB Totals Betting Trends for Hot Over and Under Teams
by Aaron Smith - 9/14/2018

The Arizona Diamondbacks have taken a lot of close losses of late, and they have slipped behind by 4.5 games in the National League West. Colorado continues to be the comeback kids, and the Rockies have won all sorts of close contests this year. The Rockies lead the Dodgers by 1.5 games. That should be a great race to the finish. The National League Central is interesting as well, since the Brewers have drawn to within 1.5 games of the Cubs. There is almost no drama in the American League as we finish out the regular season.

MLB Totals Betting Trends for Hot Over and Under Teams
by Aaron Smith - 8/31/2018

The most interesting race of the last month in Major League Baseball should be the National League West. The Diamondbacks lead the division by 1.5 games over Colorado. They are also only two games ahead of the Los Angeles Dodgers. All of these teams play each other a bunch in the final month of the season, so anything could happen in this division.

MLB Totals Betting Trends for Hot Over and Under Teams
by Aaron Smith - 8/17/2018

There are about 40 games left in the regular season, and the playoff races are heating up. The Houston Astros are only two games ahead of the Oakland Athletics in the American League West. Seattle is just four games back. Atlanta is 1.5 games ahead of Philadelphia in the National League East. The Cubs are 3.5 ahead of Milwaukee, and St. Louis is only five games back after a recent hot streak. Arizona leads the National League West by 1.5 games over Colorado, and the Los Angeles Dodgers are just two games back. There shouldn't be any drama in the American League East or the American League Central.

MLB Totals Betting Trends for Hot Over and Under Teams
by Aaron Smith - 8/3/2018

The MLB trade deadline brought a bunch of excitement this year. Chris Archer getting traded to the Pirates was an interesting deal. The Dodgers went all in once again this year as well, and that's a really dangerous team going forward. All of the contenders made at least one move, and I'm interested to see how the new pieces fit. Most teams are somewhere between 107 and 110 games into the season, so we'll have to start paying attention to playoff races before long.

MLB Betting Trends: Totals Report for Hot Over and Under Teams
by Aaron Smith - 7/14/2018

The MLB All Star Game is this coming Tuesday. It's the one break during the long grind of the baseball season. The players will certainly enjoy their break, and bettors should enjoy a little break from the action on the diamond as well. I think it's important to note that the time right before and right after the break is a very tricky one to handicap, so be careful with your plays in the coming days. It might be a good time to be more selective.

Daily Expert MLB Picks: Tuesday, July 10, 2018, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 7/10/2018

You will want to pay close attention to the starting pitchers around baseball on Tuesday. Why? Because on usual four days of rest, they would start again Sunday. And pitchers who start the Sunday before the All-Star Game -- which is next Tuesday in Washington, D.C. - are ineligible to pitch in that game. Thus, Houston's Justin Verlander will not be the American League starter as he might have been (has already been replaced on All-Star roster).

MLB Betting Trends: Totals Report for Hot Over and Under Teams
by Aaron Smith - 6/28/2018

The four best records in baseball are all American League teams. The National League is showing a lot of parity so far this season. The teams who were expected to be at the top of the National League have struggled at least compared to expectations. The Cubs, Dodgers, and Nationals have disappointed thus far. The Dodgers and Nationals have been really banged up. The Cubs pitching staff and defense have underachieved. We're almost exactly halfway through the regular season. Still plenty of time for some major changes in the standings.

Daily Expert MLB Picks: Friday, June 29, 2018, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 6/28/2018

Voting for the MLB All-Star starters closes next Thursday, and we could see something quite interesting in the American League. You would think that the Red Sox and Yankees would be dominating the voting because both are having huge seasons and they are the two most popular teams in the American League by far. Since MLB gave balloting over to the fans in 1970, neither the AL nor NL has had eight different teams (i.e. players at positions) win a fan election in the same year. Right now, that is happening in the Junior Circuit.

Expert MLB Handicapping: How Bad are the Royals?
by Trevor Whenham - 6/27/2018

The Kansas City Royals are bad. Really bad. They have sold off or lost most of their top talent in recent years, and they are in a bitter fight with the Orioles for the crown of being the worst team in the league. They are a mess. Typically, when I am breaking down a team I look at individual players, the strength and weaknesses of the team, and so on. For a team like this, though, the story is simple - there are very few strengths, and they could lose 120 games without too much of a struggle. So, instead of looking at the truly bad aspects of this team, let's look at six different storylines that will tell us more about this team. Spoiler alert - what we learn isn't positive.

MLB Betting Advice: Trades that Could Impact Bettors
by Trevor Whenham - 6/27/2018

The calendar is about to turn to July. That means that baseball trade season is about to fire up in a big way. July is when top teams spend too much to try to fill their gaps and bad teams give up on their season and hope to build a brighter future. As always, this promises to be a very interesting July, with a good mix of stars and role players available.

Daily Expert MLB Picks: Tuesday, June 26, 2018, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 6/25/2018

This could be an important week for the Arizona Diamondbacks in their quest to win the NL West for the first time since 2011. That's because two starting pitchers are set to return from injury. The first is Shelby Miller, who was set to pitch Monday in Miami. Miller was acquired before the 2016 season from Atlanta in one of the most lopsided trades (in favor of the Braves) this century. Miller flopped to a 3-12 record and 6.15 ERA in 2016 and then lasted only four starts in 2017 before undergoing Tommy John surgery.

Expert MLB Betting Picks: Division Winner Props
by Trevor Whenham - 6/22/2018

I'm about to look at Major League Baseball division winner prop bets, but before I do I have to get a rant off my chest. The American League just sucks this year. Don't get me wrong, the teams are great at the top and one of the teams is very likely to win the World Series. It's not the quality of the teams or the play on the field. It's that it is barely past the middle of June and there is no drama left in the division.

MLB Expert Handicapping: Orioles One of All-Time Worst
by Trevor Whenham - 6/22/2018

There has to be a team with the worst record in baseball, and at 21-51 the Baltimore Orioles are working really hard to lock up the position they have held for much of the year already. It's ugly, but it is a long way from unexpected. This team was respectable in recent years, but they have totally bungled their roster management, and they are just a mess. They are on track for 115 losses, which just isn't a good thing. The 119 losses by the 2003 Tigers is the all-time record, and you shouldn't count the Orioles out from pursuing that record. There is obviously a whole lot going wrong - far more than we could cover here. But let's take a stab at a few of them:

Daily Expert MLB Picks: Saturday, June 23, 2018, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 6/22/2018

I like baseball, but I'm not a millennial and they clearly aren't huge fans of the sport with how ratings and attendance are dropping around the majors. It's because baseball isn't all that fun, frankly. Great tradition, but boring. What would have been fun and drawn some unique fans, for one night at least, was Shohei Ohtani in the Home Run Derby the night before the All-Star Game. That's not happening now with Ohtani injured. Well, there's another (probably not realistic) option nearly as good: Ichiro Suzuki competing in the Derby.

Daily Expert MLB Picks: Friday, June 22, 2018, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 6/21/2018

It's great to be an intense competitor, but when you hurt yourself out of frustration you are simply an idiot. Might the Cavaliers had won a game in the NBA Finals if LeBron James hadn't injured his shooting hand punching something after that crushing Game 1 loss? By the way, couldn't have LeBron kept that injury quiet? Almost like he used it as an excuse following the sweep. But, I digress. The latest hot-head idiot is Giants closer Hunter Strickland.

Daily Expert MLB Picks: Thursday, June 21, 2018, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 6/20/2018

Did the Washington Nationals and Kansas City Royals just kick off the trade market? They might have as on Tuesday the Royals, who are in full-blown tank/selloff mode, shipped excellent closer Kelvin Herrera to Washington for some prospects - but not the Nats' best ones because Herrera will be a free agent after the season. Herrera was 1-1 with 14 saves, a 1.05 ERA and 0.82 WHIP this year on a bad, bad team.

Daily Expert MLB Picks: Wednesday, June 20, 2018, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 6/19/2018

I won't try to explain some trends in sports. For example, the Boston Red Sox used to have a "Ben Affleck Curse." Of course, Affleck, a well-known Red Sox fan, became a star with the release of "Good Will Hunting" on Jan. 9, 1998. Affleck's birthday is Aug. 15. For 15 straight years on Affleck's birthday following the release of the movie, the Red Sox lost. What can I say, this was a thing in Boston. I bring this up because you might want to drop some serious cash on the Atlanta Braves on Father's Day 2019 if Julio Teheran is on the mound.

Daily Expert MLB Picks: Tuesday, June 19, 2018, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 6/18/2018

Want to see the face of Giants manager Bruce Bochy get bright red with anger? Not sure why you would, but if so just say the following: "fractured fifth metacarpal." That was the injury suffered by ace Madison Bumgarner in his final spring training start, and MadBum didn't return to action in the majors until June 5. Now, the same injury has hit third baseman and offseason trade acquisition Evan Longoria. He was hit by a pitch on the left hand (Bumgarner was hit by a line drive on the left hand) Thursday by the Marlins' Dan Straily.

Daily Expert MLB Picks: Saturday, June 16, 2018, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 6/15/2018

I don't write an Opening Line Report for Monday, so I want to address Mets pitcher Jacob deGrom in this story as he's set to pitch that night in Colorado. Not sure I've seen a guy in recent years with worse luck than deGrom, who should be a Cy Young candidate with his NL-best 1.55 ERA. However, he's just 4-2 overall on the season because of terrible run support. In his past 10 starts, deGrom's ERA is 0.87, but the Mets are 2-8.