Baseball Handicapping Articles

Five to Follow Expert MLB Betting Picks: Tuesday, May 9, 2017, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 5/8/2017

The headline of a Buster Olney story over the weekend said it all: "Matt Harvey at a career crossroads." I completely agree with that. Harvey once was the most popular Met and the best of all those good young pitchers. He was brilliant in 2012-13 and in 2015 after returning from Tommy John surgery. Harvey's starts were big events at Citi Field and you would see many fans dressed up in Batman gear because of Harvey's nickname, the "Dark Knight." Things have not gone well for Harvey since. He struggled big time last season before going down to another major injury. He's just 2-2 with a 5.14 ERA in 2017 and was suspended by the team for three days on Sunday, the day he was supposed to start vs. Miami.

MLB Betting Trends: Totals Report for Hot Over and Under Baseball Teams
by Aaron Smith - 5/5/2017

We're now a month into the season. Some of the surprise teams from the first couple weeks have come back down to earth, but there are still some big surprises near the top of the standings. The Rockies and the Diamondbacks battling for the top spot in the NL West is my biggest surprise. It's also surprising that the Giants are in last place in a division that has the San Diego Padres in it. Profit from overreactions by the market in the next few weeks on the diamond!

Five to Follow Expert MLB Betting Picks: Saturday, May 6, 2017, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 5/5/2017

The New York Mets were a wild-card team last year and expected to contend in the NL East in 2017. They lost ace Noah Syndergaard and are probably toast. The San Francisco Giants were a wild-card team last year and expected to contend in the NL West in 2017. They lost ace Madison Bumgarner and are probably toast. The Texas Rangers were AL West champions last year and expected to contend for a playoff spot in 2017.

Five to Follow Expert MLB Betting Picks: Friday, May 5, 2017, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 5/4/2017

Friday is Cinco de Mayo, which is frankly celebrated more in the United States than Mexico and a reason for people to go out and party; i.e. just like St. Patrick's Day. Cinco de Mayo is a holiday that celebrates the date of the Mexican army's 1862 victory over France at the Battle of Puebla during the Franco-Mexican War (1861-1867). That said, I'm sure there will be plenty of Cinco de Mayo celebrations and giveaways around baseball if you happen to attend a game on Friday. So it got me thinking about who might be the best current MLB player born in Mexico.

Five to Follow Expert MLB Betting Picks: Thursday, May 4, 2017, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 5/3/2017

I've said it over and over again that spring training stats simply don't matter for players or teams. Those ballparks are all very cozy for the fans and usually lead to gaudy offensive numbers. I mention this because of Yankees first baseman Greg Bird. If they were to give out an MVP of the Grapefruit League (the offense is even more pronounced in the Cactus League with the dry air) it would have gone to Bird. He hit .451 with eight homers and 15 RBIs in 51 at-bats. In the regular season, Bird is a ghastly 6-for-60 with 22 strikeouts, one homer, three RBIs and a .250 on-base percentage.

Five to Follow Expert MLB Betting Picks: Wednesday, May 3, 2017, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 5/2/2017

I don't pretend to know what type of language is in a Major League Baseball player's standard contract. But I've never heard of a guy refusing to take an MRI like Mets ace Noah Syndergaard did last Friday after he was scratched from Thursday's start. Syndergaard is looking like a fool now because Sunday he suffered a partial tear of his right lat muscle. Guess what showed that? An MRI. Syndergaard is out indefinitely and it's likely going to be a couple of months; in 2015, fellow Mets pitcher Steven Matz missed two months with the same type of injury.

Five to Follow Expert MLB Betting Picks: Tuesday, May 2, 2017, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 5/1/2017

Quite a weekend for the Washington Nationals, good and bad. On Friday, outfielder Adam Eaton, the team's big offseason trade addition from the Chicago White Sox, landed awkwardly at first base trying to beat out an infield hit against the Mets. He tore his ACL and meniscus and is done for the season. Eaton cost a ton in pitching prospects and was hitting .297 with two homers and 13 RBIs. His .393 on-base percentage was the second-best among leadoff hitters (minimum 50 plate appearances from that spot). He's also a good defender. Shortstop Trea Turner takes over at leadoff and Michael A. Taylor in center field, although I could see Washington looking to add someone if Taylor doesn't start hitting more.

Five to Follow Expert MLB Betting Picks: Saturday, April 29, 2017, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 4/28/2017

Logically, it wouldn't seem that injuries would carry over for an entire baseball team from one year to the next. Sure, there are injury-prone players on every team in the majors but not statistical reasons why a certain team(s) has to deal with big problems over multiple years unless they keep all those same injury-prone guys. Yet that sure seems to be the case for the New York Mets. That third baseman David Wright hasn't played yet in 2017 is no shock. He's always hurt. Now, however, the Mets' two most important players are ailing: ace Noah Syndergaard was scratched from Thursday's start with biceps tendinitis.

Five to Follow Expert MLB Betting Picks: Friday, April 28, 2017, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 4/27/2017

There's no question that Seattle's Felix Hernandez was one of the best pitchers of his era with one Cy Young Award and one runner-up. Hernandez made at least 30 starts for the Mariners every season from 2006 through 2015. But have we seen the last of dominant King Felix? Injuries hit him for the first time last season, and he slipped to a 3.82 ERA - not bad, really, but not at Hernandez's usual level.

Five to Follow Expert MLB Betting Picks: Thursday, April 27, 2017, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 4/26/2017

Big news for the Los Angeles Dodgers and perhaps in the NL Rookie of the Year race as L.A. has recalled its top position player prospect, first baseman Cody Bellinger. The 21-year-old, ranked the 10th-best prospect in baseball, was overmatched during spring training as a non-roster invitee, hitting just .207 with a .639 OPS and 20 strikeouts in 58 at-bats. However, Bellinger was a standout at Triple-A Oklahoma City this year, hitting .343 with five homers, 15 RBIs and a 1.055 OPS in 67 at-bats.

Five to Follow Expert MLB Betting Picks: Wednesday, April 26, 2017, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 4/25/2017

I was one of those who believed that the Arizona Diamondbacks would be one of the top bounce-back candidates in the National League this season and that they might contend for a wild-card spot - I presumed the Dodgers would win the NL West and still do. Part of my belief in the Snakes was because Shelby Miller would rebound from a horrific first season in the desert. And for the most part Miller has with a 2-2 record and 4.09. Not great by any means, but much better than 2016 and his velocity was up.

Five to Follow Expert MLB Betting Picks: Tuesday, April 25, 2017, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 4/24/2017

First off, shame on you if you bet on the Giants to win the NL West or any such futures. You should know by now that the Giants go to the playoffs in even-numbered years this decade but miss out when it's an odd-numbered one. And while it's only late April, I would go ahead and stick a fork in San Francisco for this season. That's because not only is the team 6-13 as of Monday but it also lost its most important player, ace pitcher Madison Bumgarner, for two months or more after he injured his ribs and pitching shoulder in a dirt-bike accident. Are MLB players contractually allowed to go dirtbiking?

Five to Follow Expert MLB Betting Picks: Saturday, April 22, 2017, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 4/21/2017

Something happened on Thursday in Major League Baseball that won't have any betting ramifications this season or probably next. But it's worth putting in your back pocket going forward: MLB cleared Cuban outfielder Luis Robert to sign with a team, and he'll officially become a free agent on May 20. Why is this important? Robert's agents had to get this clearance done soon because baseball's new CBA calls for hard caps on international spending for the 2017-2018 signing period, and the 2016-2017 signing period ends in a couple of months. Robert is just 19 so he's obviously not going straight to the majors, but scouts rave about the guy.

MLB Betting Trends: Totals Report for Hot Over and Under Baseball Teams
by Aaron Smith - 4/20/2017

The baseball season is 15 games old for most teams. The Cincinnati Reds sit in first place in the NL Central. The Colorado Rockies are tied in first place with the Arizona Diamondbacks in the NL West. Those are definitely some strange early-season results, but I strongly encourage everyone to not read into this too much. Remember, this is a 162-game season, so we are less than 10 percent of the way done with the season. It's easy to have some statistical anomalies at this point in the season. The Reds aren't going to win the NL Central, and they probably won't end up being very good. Overreacting to early results can get bettors in a lot of trouble.

Five to Follow Expert MLB Betting Picks: Friday, April 21, 2017, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 4/20/2017

In the bottom of the ninth of a 6-6 tie at Cleveland's Progressive Field in last year's epic Game 7 of the World Series between the Cubs and Indians, gassed Chicago closer Aroldis Chapman threw a 1-1 hanging breaking ball with one out to Tribe batter Jason Kipnis. It looked at first like Kipnis got all of it and might have homered down the right-field line to send the Cubs to the most crushing of the franchise's many crushing losses. Even Cubs team president Theo Epstein thought it was gone at first. How fitting would it have been if Kipnis beat the Cubbies?

Five to Follow Expert MLB Betting Picks: Thursday, April 20, 2017, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 4/19/2017

Crushing news for the Pittsburgh Pirates on Tuesday, and here's hoping you bet "under" their wins total of 82.5 at sportsbooks entering the season. Andrew McCutchen might be their best-known player and is a former NL MVP, but the Pirates' star these days is outfielder Starling Marte. He has been suspended 80 games for PED use. In each of the past four seasons, he had a WAR of at least 4.9. The only other outfielder with at least that number over that span? Mike Trout.

Five to Follow Expert MLB Betting Picks: Wednesday, April 19, 2017, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 4/18/2017

It's not too often you will see a team in last place with a positive run differential, but that was the case with the Texas Rangers in the AL West entering this week. The Rangers have one of the best offenses in baseball, but their bullpen has been a total disaster - mainly closer Sam Dyson. He blew a third save in three tries on Sunday and has a 27.00 ERA. Manager Jeff Bannister obviously had no choice but to say something had to be done in that role.

MLB Wagering and Handicapping: Surprise Starts
by Trevor Whenham - 4/18/2017

As seems to so often be the case in baseball, things feel like they are upside down early in the season. Teams like the Blue Jays, Cardinals and Rangers came into the season with high expectations and have been horrible. They find themselves at the bottom of the standings. On the flip side, three squads - the Reds, Rockies and Yankees - have jumped out to starts far beyond what was reasonable to expect for them.

MLB Handicapping and Betting Help: Disappointing Pitchers
by Trevor Whenham - 4/18/2017

Pitching in the major leagues is extremely tough. The more guys you watch try to do it, the more you realize how impressive the guys who have sustained success are. To win consistently, and produce moneyline profits, you need to play at a very high level and get the help from your team as well. Every year we see guys who were good one year, and who have solid reputations, struggle the next year. It's early this year, but there are six guys who really stand out because their performance for bettors have been just plain awful - and bettors would have been right to expect more from them:

MLB Handicapping: What to Make of Poor Start from Blue Jays
by Trevor Whenham - 4/18/2017

I basically make predictions for a living - thousands per year. Some are right and some are wrong. That's just how it goes. Every so often, though, one comes along that you make and then soon wish you could take back. One so terribly wrong that it leads you to question… well everything. I'm a couple of weeks removed from one such prediction - that the Toronto Blue Jays were handily going to be a playoff team. I even said that they could threaten the Red Sox for AL East supremacy. It made some sense at the time - I still think that. Only 12 games into their season, though, the wheels have fallen completely off, and things are grim.