Baseball Handicapping Articles

Free MLB Futures Betting Picks: Pitcher Win Totals
by Trevor Whenham - 2/27/2018

Baseball is all about starting pitching. Winning teams have it and losing teams don't. We can judge a whole lot from the quality of a staff entering a season. It can be tougher, though, to judge individual pitchers - and tougher still to figure out how their performance will turn into wins because so much of a win-loss record is beyond the control of the pitcher. Difficulty is what makes things fun for bettors, though, which is why these pitcher season win totals from BetOnline are so much fun to look at. Here are nine that stood out as particularly interesting.

Expert MLB Handicapping: 2018 Outlook for Last Year's Playoff Squads
by Trevor Whenham - 2/27/2018

Our goal here is simple. Last year there were 10 playoff teams in Major League Baseball. Several of them will return to the playoffs this year. Some won't. As we wait for spring training to end and games to really matter, it makes sense to go down that list and see which teams seem to fit into which group. (odds to win the World Series are from BetOnline):

MLB Futures Betting Odds and Expert Picks: Judge v Stanton
by Trevor Whenham - 2/27/2018

It had been 16 years since we had seen a power hitter have a year like Giancarlo Stanton had for the Marlins last year when he hit 59 home runs. And Aaron Judge's breakout rookie year with 52 homers was no less impressive. They were the undisputed home run kings last year - J.D. Martinez was third in the league but had seven fewer than Judge.

MLB Home Run King Odds and Expert Betting Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 2/26/2018

Here's some breaking news for you - the kind of biting insight you can only get here. The New York Yankees are going to hit a lot of home runs. What am I basing this bold claim on? Well, you take the American League home run leader and give him another year of experience. Then you add the overall home run leader and best power hitter in the game, and you put him in a very favorable park - both overall and compared to where he came from. Then you consider that Gary Sanchez had 33 runs last year, and Didi Gregorius had 25, and that both have plenty of upside yet to be tapped - especially Sanchez. Things could get crazy.

MLB Spring Training Expert Betting Advice
by Trevor Whenham - 2/26/2018

Almost without exception preseason sports are a total waste of oxygen. I said almost, though, because spring training baseball can actually be pretty great - especially if you are lucky enough to get to attend the games in person. Spring training baseball is casual and beautiful and far less handicapped by the limitations of the preseason than other sports are. It's not perfect, but it's pretty solid. And it can provide some decent betting opportunities as well.

MLB Betting Advice for 2018 Season: Possible Surprise Teams
by Trevor Whenham - 2/14/2018

Last year the Minnesota Twins were a total and complete shock, somehow improving from a pathetic 59-win season in 2016 to 85 wins and a brief playoff appearance. It made no sense. The Colorado Rockies were almost as surprising, improving from 75 wins to 87 at a time when most people had forgotten they were even still in the Major Leagues, and they also made a short playoff appearance. And even the Yankees were a bit of a surprise, winning 91 games and going to Game 7 of the ALCS in a year when many, myself included, thought they would be regrouping.

Five to Follow Expert MLB Betting Picks: 9/2/2017, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 9/1/2017

Well, the AL playoffs just got potentially much more interesting on Thursday as two Junior Circuit contenders got better. Houston made the biggest splash in trading prospects to Detroit for Tigers ace Justin Verlander. In 28 starts this season, Verlander is 10-8 with a 3.82 ERA. Since May 30, Verlander has a 3.24 ERA with 118 strikeouts in 111 innings. He had to waive his no-trade clause to make it happen.

Five to Follow Expert MLB Betting Picks: 9/1/2017, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 8/31/2017

Sept. 1 is always an important day around Major League Baseball because it's when rosters expand for the rest of the regular season. For the first five months of the season, each team has a 25-man active roster, which is composed of players on its 40-man roster. At any point from Sept. 1 on, any player on the expanded roster Aug. 31 can play for the big-league team. No team is going to have 40 players in the big-league dugout, but pretty much every club will call up at least a guy or two -- often relievers or players who can be defensive replacements late in games or pinch-runners -- here and there simply to give some regulars a bit of rest.

Five to Follow Expert MLB Betting Picks: 8/31/2017, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 8/30/2017

If there's going to be any more significant trades this season, they will happen by Thursday afternoon. That's because after Aug. 31, any players acquired via trade are ineligible to be added to the postseason roster that year by their new teams. I suppose if a team got a player it wanted just for the final month of the regular season or for 2018, then something can happen after Thursday but not likely.

Five to Follow Expert MLB Betting Picks: 8/30/2017, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 8/29/2017

Baseball is probably the furthest thing from the minds of those living in flood-ravaged Houston, but it's a good thing that the Astros have a solid lead for the American League's top seed because it sure appears as if they are going to lose six home games - although it should be noted Houston has a better away record than at Minute Maid Park. Houston's three-game series with the Texas Rangers that started Tuesday has been moved to the mausoleum that is Tampa Bay's Tropicana Field.

Five to Follow Expert MLB Betting Picks: 8/29/2017, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 8/28/2017

I suppose we need to talk about Miami's Giancarlo Stanton again. On Sunday, he became the first National League player since 2007 (Milwaukee's Prince Fielder) to hit 50 homers in a season, and the "unofficial" record of 62 is certainly in play. Stanton has 17 home runs in August, becoming the first player with that many in a month since Sammy Sosa hit 17 in August 2011. Barry Bonds also hit 17 in May of that year.

Five to Follow Expert MLB Betting Picks: 8/26/2017, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 8/25/2017

You generally only see cross-sport props at various sportsbooks for mega-events. I think Saturday night's Floyd Mayweather-Conor McGregor fight qualifies. Does that bout have a realistic chance of being a boring farce? No question, but McGregor having that puncher's chance is why I'll watch. Bovada is offering some cross-sport props associated with baseball games on Saturday. As an aside, I would love a job like that: creating props out of thin air (some books will let you to place a wager). For example, you can get total knockdowns by McGregor at +170 against homers by MLB leader

Five to Follow Expert MLB Betting Picks: 8/25/2017, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 8/24/2017

Kudos to the Angels' Albert Pujols, who is widely accepted as good guy who didn't cheat the game - i.e. steroids - to become a first-ballot Hall of Famer five years after he retires. On Tuesday night, Pujols hit the 610th homer of his career to break a tie with Sammy Sosa (speaking of cheaters) for the most dingers ever by a player born outside the United States. Pujols is from the baseball-rich Dominican Republic, though he went to high school and college in Kansas City.

Five to Follow Expert MLB Betting Picks: 8/24/2017, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 8/23/2017

Go ahead and forget the Los Angeles Dodgers setting the big-league record with 117 wins. I always thought it was highly unlikely as it's just not worth pushing the guys through September to achieve some statistic. L.A. will still finish with the best record this season and thus get home-field advantage as long as it's alive in the postseason. However, there might be cause for some concern now. Clayton Kershaw is on the DL with back troubles.

Five to Follow Expert MLB Betting Picks: 8/23/2017, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 8/22/2017

Interesting note about the Kansas City Royals and third baseman Mike Moustakas. He's about to break the team record of 36 homers set by Steve Balboni back in 1985. What's amazing about that is how such a low total still leads the franchise. For example, nearly half of all homers ever recorded have been hit since Balboni set that Royals record. There have been 580 player seasons of at least 36 homers, including 343 since 1985, not including Moustakas.

Five to Follow Expert MLB Betting Picks: 8/22/2017, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 8/21/2017

Yankees general manager Brian Cashman obviously knows more about baseball than I do, but then why did he give Aroldis Chapman an $86.5 million free-agent contract when he had said previously he would never overpay for a closer. Maybe Cubs manager Joe Maddon broke Chapman by using him a ton in last year's playoffs as the fire-balling lefty just hasn't been the same this season and was pulled from his closing role over the weekend by Manager Joe Girardi.

Five to Follow Expert MLB Betting Picks: 8/19/2017, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 8/18/2017

I'll be previewing five games from Saturday in this space per usual, but Major League Baseball is doing something interesting for the Sunday night ESPN game (7 p.m. this week) as the Cardinals and Pirates will play in Williamsport, home of the Little League World Series - and plenty of Little Leaguers will be in attendance. In fact, no tickets were officially made available to the public. The 16 teams participating in the LL World Series and their families will be guests. Another 500 free tickets are being distributed to winners of an online lottery.

Five to Follow Expert MLB Betting Picks: 8/18/2017, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 8/17/2017

I almost feel obligated to address the scorching-hot Giancarlo Stanton of the Marlins in this space again as he's putting on a power display that we haven't seen since the Bonds/McGwire/Sosa steroids era. Being a journalist, I know a handful of voters for the Baseball Hall of Fame, and most of them will never vote for Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire or Sammy Sosa. There are also plenty around baseball who believe that the "real" single-season home run record remains 61 by Roger Maris in 1961 and not Bonds' 73 in 2001. Stanton could surpass Maris if he keeps raking and stays healthy.

MLB Betting Trends: Totals Report for Hot Over and Under Baseball Teams
by Aaron Smith - 8/17/2017

With the trade deadline behind us, the end of the regular season is closer than it may seem. The races for division leads and Wild-Card spots will heat up a lot in the next few weeks. The run the Los Angeles Dodgers are on right now deserves some special notice. The Dodgers were 22-18 after 40 games. There was some talk about it being a disappointing start to the season. How have things gone since? The Dodgers have proceeded to go a mind-boggling 63-16 in their last 79 games. It's not often you see runs like that in Major League Baseball.

Five to Follow Expert MLB Betting Picks: 8/17/2017, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 8/16/2017

I'm not saying the Cleveland Indians will return to the World Series this season and end the longest current championship drought in Major League Baseball. I do believe the Tribe have a good chance of getting back to the Fall Classic, though, and they are +250 at BetOnline to repeat as pennant winners. So allow me to take a liberty or two here. I'm just going to assume that if the Indians do get back, they won't have home-field advantage because their overall record is well behind that of the Dodgers and Nationals - and I think the Cubs might pass the Tribe as well.