Baseball Handicapping Articles

Daily Expert MLB Picks: Saturday, May 5, 2018, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 5/4/2018

Maybe when I'm a senior citizen, I'll consider Mike Trout the best baseball player I saw in my lifetime. Barry Bonds, Alex Rodriguez and Roger Clemens were three of the best players ever without question - but we all know the cloud that follows them around. Right now, I consider the best all-around MLB player I saw to be Ichiro Suzuki. And it appears his player career is over. Ichiro has decided to stop playing this year - he was a reserve with the Mariners - and transition to the front office. Ichiro didn't officially say he was retiring, but it's pretty obvious.

Daily Expert MLB Picks: Friday, May 4, 2018, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 5/3/2018

This past winter, the Giants' Johnny Cueto had an interesting decision - one you and I would never even consider. When Cueto signed with San Francisco in late 2015, he got a six-year, $130 million deal but with a player opt out after two seasons. Needless to say, if Cueto had two good years and stayed healthy, he would have opted out and gotten a bigger contract or at least another six-year deal. Cueto was fantastic in 2016 but struggled and dealt with some injuries last year and decided to stay in the contract.

Expert MLB Handicapping: Are Atlanta Braves Legit After Hot Start?
by Trevor Whenham - 5/3/2018

Things are getting a little crazy in Atlanta. On Thursday afternoon the Braves absolutely humiliated the Mets, winning 11-0 for their fifth straight victory. That moved them to 19-11 and gave them a game and a half lead in the NL East. Only the Arizona Diamondbacks have a better winning percentage in the entire National League. It's a great start for any team, but for one like the Braves it is kind of amazing.

Daily Expert MLB Picks: Thursday, May 3, 2018, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 5/2/2018

Led by former Tampa Bay Rays GM Andrew Friedman, the front office of the Los Angeles Dodgers is one of the best in the business, without question. Yet, if they knew that superstar shortstop Corey Seager was having elbow troubles last year, why not have him undergo surgery right after the World Series? Position players return from Tommy John surgery much faster than pitchers for obvious reasons. The baseball world was stunned at the news Monday that Seager's 2018 season was over due to Tommy John surgery to repair a sprained ulnar collateral ligament in his right arm. I hesitate to say the Dodgers are toast now, but Seager is their best all-around hitter.

Daily Expert MLB Picks: Wednesday, May 2, 2018, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 5/1/2018

You have to hand it to the Arizona Diamondbacks. They are battling Boston for the best record in the majors, and Arizona has tied an MLB record by winning its first nine series in a season. It hadn't been done by any team since the 2001 Mariners, who won a record 116 games but failed to reach the World Series. The last NL team to do it? The 1907 Cubs, who did win it all. Amazing by the Snakes considering they lost slugging outfielder J.D. Martinez this offseason in free agency and are down two starting pitchers (Taijuan Walker and Shelby Miller) following Tommy John surgeries.

Daily Expert MLB Picks: Tuesday, May 1, 2018, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 4/30/2018

With Tuesday the first of May, it's a good time to check the updated standings. You would think it wouldn't much matter this early in a season which teams are leading their divisions. You would be wrong. Since the advent of the first wild-card spot in 1996, 15 of the 22 World Series winners led their division on May 1. That includes the 2017 Houston Astros. The other division leaders on May 1 last year were Baltimore (missed playoffs), Cleveland (won AL Central), Washington (won NL East), Chicago Cubs and Milwaukee (tied in NL Central - Cubs won that) and Colorado (wild-card team). I tend to think every current AL division leader will take its division; rather doubt any of the three NL leaders do.

Daily Expert MLB Picks: Saturday, April 28, 2018, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 4/27/2018

Did you actually have the stones to bet on the Miami Marlins over Clayton Kershaw and the Los Angeles Dodgers on Wednesday? If you did, congratulations. But, I'm guessing you didn't. In Las Vegas, Miami's 8-6 shocker was one of the biggest upset in MLB in the past decade. The Marlins started a former substitute teacher named Trevor Richards. Behind Kershaw, the Dodgers closed as high as -450 favorites at some sportsbooks.

MLB Betting Trends: Totals Report for Hot Over and Under Teams
by Aaron Smith - 4/27/2018

The Red Sox continue to crush the competition in the early going. Boston is off to a 19-5 start to the season, but the Yankees and Blue Jays look like teams capable of making a run in the American League East as well. Baltimore is a miserable 6-19 on the year, and they are already 13.5 games out of first place. The Angels are 16-9 on the season so far. The Angels are just 5-7 at home, but they are a whopping 11-2 on the road in the early going.

Daily Expert MLB Picks: Friday, April 27, 2018, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 4/26/2018

I have been writing these MLB Opening Line Reports for a few years, and if you read them daily then you know I'm essentially contractually obligated to mention Johnny Vander Meer when a pitcher has a chance at a second straight no-hitter. Do I think I will see this happen in my lifetime? No. But Oakland's Sean Manaea goes for history on Friday night. On June 11, 1938, the Reds left-hander Vander Meer no-hit Boston, walking three.

Daily Expert MLB Picks: Thursday, April 26, 2018, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 4/25/2018

Want more proof that the Los Angeles Dodgers are going to be a powerhouse into the next decade? They already have two of the top young hitters in the game in Cody Bellinger and Corey Seager, the past two NL Rookies of the Year. On Monday, we got a glimpse of one of the Top 3 pitching prospects in the sport, Walker Buehler. He was called up late last season and struggled in 9.1 innings but that didn't dim his star. Buehler, 23, made his MLB starting debut on Monday against the Marlins and threw five shutout innings. OK, nothing amazing.

Daily Expert MLB Picks: Tuesday, April 24, 2018, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 4/23/2018

In this writer's humble opinion, the best and most important baseball game in the past 40 years or so was Game 7 of the 2016 World Series when the Cubs and Indians - the two teams with the longest championship droughts in the sport - played an epic 10-inning affair at Cleveland's Progressive Field; I believe no MLB game going forward will ever approach the TV ratings of that one (all standard TV ratings are decreasing in every genre).

Daily Expert MLB Picks: Saturday, April 21, 2018, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 4/20/2018

Really no surprise that the Cincinnati Reds fired Manager Bryan Price on Thursday with his team off to a 3-15 start. Only the 1931 Reds, who started 2-16, came out of the gate slower than this year's team. Overall, Price's record with the Reds was 279-387. Frankly, the only surprise was that Price wasn't fired either during last season or at least the offseason. My only thoughts would be that: 1) the Reds knew they were going to stink again in 2018 so why ruin some other manager, or 2) the franchise is so cheap it didn't want to pay a guy NOT to manage.

Daily Expert MLB Picks: Friday, April 20, 2018, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 4/19/2018

With a loaded farm system, the ability to add payroll and a mega-prospect on the way, it's not impossible that the Atlanta Braves stay in the wild-card race all season (depending on Freddie Freeman's wrist injury suffered Wednesday - more on that Friday). However, they do have a glaring hole at third base. (Ryan Flaherty is raking right now but go look at his career numbers. It won't last.) Problem solved? I wouldn't go that far yet, but it's interesting that the team has signed former Blue Jays slugger Jose Bautista to a minor-league deal.

Daily Expert MLB Picks: Thursday, April 19, 2018, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 4/18/2018

Were the San Diego Padres even going to be playoff contenders this season? No chance. But, I thought some decent improvement off last year's 71-win team was doable with the addition of free-agent first baseman Eric Hosmer and some really good young talent either already with the big club or on the way. Then, maybe, wild-card contention in 2019. However, one reason for that optimism was good-looking young pitcher Dinelson Lamet. Sadly, he won't pitch at all this year after some elbow pain in his final spring outing.

Daily Expert MLB Picks: Tuesday, April 17, 2018, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 4/16/2018

If I'm Major League Baseball, I'm mandating that any new stadiums being built - both the Rays and A's are trying to get new ballparks - have a retractable roof. The amount of weather postponements already has been staggering. A whopping six were postponed on Sunday, the most since Sept. 12, 2008, when Hurricane Ike was battering the Gulf Coast. The biggest home game of the Red Sox's season is always Monday's Patriots' Day matchup with an 11 a.m. ET start time, but that was called off Sunday afternoon because the weather is so bad in that area. It's the first time a Patriots' Day game wasn't played since 1984.

Daily Expert MLB Picks: Saturday, April 14, 2018, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 4/13/2018

With Tax Day imminent in the USA, seems a good time to take a look at Forbes' annual list of MLB team rankings. To no surprise, the New York Yankees are the most valuable franchise in the sport at $4 billion. It's the 21st straight year the Yankees are atop the MLB list. Forbes estimated the Yankees' 2017 revenue at $619 million, which is nearly 20 percent higher than any other team. The late George Steinbrenner, by the way, paid $8.8 million for the team in 1973. The Dodgers are second at $3 billion and bring in $522 million of revenue.

MLB Betting Trends: Totals Report for Hot Over and Under Teams
by Aaron Smith - 4/13/2018

The baseball season is now two weeks old. Not many people could have picked the Mets as the team to have the best winning percentage in baseball at this point. They have had some injuries already as well, but they have continued to play great baseball. The Angels are the other standout early in the season. Shohei Otani has gotten much of the attention (and he's been awesome), but the addition of Zack Cozart has been far more important than most realize as well. The Yankees, Nationals, and Dodgers have all been disappointments so far this year. It's a long season though, so don't get caught up in the standings this early.

Daily Expert MLB Picks: Friday, April 13, 2018, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 4/12/2018

As expected, the 2020 MLB All-Star Game has been awarded to the Los Angeles Dodgers. Even though Dodger Stadium is a legendary park with spectacular scenery, it's only the second time the park will host the game, with the first way back in 1980. Since then, every current MLB team has hosted it at least once other than the Tampa Bay Rays in their crappy Tropicana Field. The game will be in Washington D.C. this year (with hopes Bryce Harper will finally compete in the Home Run Derby) and at Cleveland's Progressive Field in 2019.

Daily Expert MLB Picks: Thursday, April 12, 2018, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 4/11/2018

Look, I know that some guys become millionaires or billionaires because they know how to take advantage of loopholes in laws. But, man, does it seem like the new Marlins ownership does one weaselly thing after another. The latest? Apparently, the group is claiming corporate ownership in the British Virgin Islands to avoid dealing with a Miami-area judge. The issue at hand is a lawsuit filed by Miami-Dade authorities against former owner Jeff Loria and the Marlins regarding the profits from the sale of the team.

Daily Expert MLB Picks: Tuesday, April 10, 2018, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 4/9/2018

It's a good thing the Angels won the Shohei Ohtani sweepstakes this offseason. The rookie has been truly amazing, both on the mound and at the plate. It's as a pitcher the Angels really are fortunate because the team already has lost three other starters to injury. The latest was JC Ramirez, who left Saturday's start with a right elbow strain - that's often an ominous sign. Especially considering Ramirez did not pitch after Aug. 19 last year after undergoing stem-cell therapy to treat a partially torn ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow. He joins Andrew Heaney (left elbow inflammation) and Matt Shoemaker (right forearm strain) on the sidelines. Heaney might be back soon, though.