Baseball Handicapping Articles

MLB Betting Trends: Totals Report for Hot Over and Under Teams
by Aaron Smith - 5/25/2018

It doesn't quite seem fair how good the Houston Astros pitching staff has been this year. They have three starters with an ERA of 2.04 or lower. Their other two starters happen to be studs as well: Lance McCullers Jr. and Dallas Keuchel. The Astros are the team to beat again with this kind of a rotation and a tremendous bullpen as well.

Daily Expert MLB Picks: Saturday, May 26, 2018, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 5/25/2018

Angels manager Mike Scioscia just ruined what would have been one of the events of the season in Major League Baseball - unless the decision was made over his head. Shohei Ohtani was set to duel against a guy he probably idolized, Masahiro Tanaka, in a matchup of Japanese sensations on Sunday as the Angels visit the Yankees in a 1:05 p.m. ET start. Ohtani is fine, the Halos just want to limit his innings and are calling the reason for skipping Ohtani's start "workload management."

Daily Expert MLB Picks: Friday, May 25, 2018, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 5/24/2018

Something happened earlier this week that I can't remember ever hearing: a player homered off his brother-in-law. That would be Giants shortstop Brandon Crawford, who went yard off Houston's Gerrit Cole in the Astros' 11-2 victory on Tuesday (I recommended Astros on the runline) - ironically, the ball landed in the Crawford Boxes in left field at Minute Maid Park. Cole is married to Crawford's sister, Amy, a former softball player whom Cole met on his first day of college at UCLA.

Daily Expert MLB Picks: Thursday, May 24, 2018, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 5/23/2018

Baseball is probably more of a crapshoot in forecasting potential stars or even major leaguers than the NBA, NFL or NHL. As proof, let's take the case of Jon Singleton, who has been released by the Houston Astros. Singleton was the key piece back when the Astros traded Hunter Pence to Philadelphia in 2011. He immediately became Houston's No. 1 prospect and was Top 50 in all of baseball. The day before making his MLB debut in 2014, the team announced it had signed Singleton to five-year, $10 million extension in order to buy out some arbitration/free agent years.

Daily Expert MLB Picks: Wednesday, May 23, 2018, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 5/22/2018

Have you been paying attention to what has been happening with the Tampa Bay Rays of late? You are forgiven if not because the Rays are probably the most anonymous team in the majors after trading Evan Longoria this past offseason. Seriously, name me five Rays players? Over the weekend, Manager Kevin Cash started reliever Sergio Romo in back-to-back games against the Angels. Cash is one of those new-age managers who doesn't really want his starters going through a lineup three times in a game.

Daily Expert MLB Picks: Tuesday, May 22, 2018, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 5/21/2018

Tuesday is likely going to be a rather painful experience for Cleveland Indians manager Terry Francona and any other guys who were on his 2016 team as the Tribe visit the Chicago Cubs in interleague action. On Oct. 29, 2016, the Indians won 7-2 at Wrigley Field to take a commanding 3-1 lead in the World Series. All of a sudden, title-starved Cleveland was going to become the City of Champions after LeBron James had led his Cavaliers back from a 3-1 series deficit in the 2016 NBA Finals that June to stun Golden State.

MLB Betting Advice: Studs and Duds for Best Teams to Bet On
by Trevor Whenham - 5/18/2018

At the quarter point of the baseball season it's a good time to look at which teams have been kind to bettors and which teams have been burning money in bulk. So, dear friends, it's time for us to look at the MLB betting studs and duds for the first time this season. For the sake of consistency, we will look at moneyline performance for each team over the course of the whole season. For reference, there have been 14 teams so far that have produced a net profit on moneyline bets on the season, and 16 that have cost money for those who have bet on them in every game.

MLB Expert Handicapping and Betting: Value Pitchers
by Trevor Whenham - 5/18/2018

There are big-name pitchers - the ones who mow down opposing batters and get paid very handsomely to do so. And there are the guys who deliver big value for bettors who back them consistently. Sometimes both of those guys are the same guy. But when they aren't - when the guy offering the big value to bettors is a guy no one is paying attention to - things can really be attractive for bettors. So, it should come as no surprise that our job here today is to look for guys somewhat or completely off the radar who are delivering profits so far this year. Luckily, there is no shortage of guys:

Daily Expert MLB Picks: Saturday, May 18, 2018, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 5/18/2018

Don't you just want to punch overpaid, higher-than-mighty athletes sometimes? The latest is Detroit's Miguel Cabrera, a future Hall of Famer and once the most feared hitter in the game. Cabrera, who went on the 10-day disabled list on May 4 with a hamstring injury, is no longer in any rush to come back because he says he feels unappreciated by fans for when he did play through injuries: "Nobody appreciates you when you play hurt, so I'm going to take my time and play when I'm good. I played hurt a lot of years here in Detroit.

Expert Baseball Betting Predictions: MLB Teams with Nothing to Play For
by Trevor Whenham - 5/18/2018

We are only a quarter of the way through the baseball season. There should still be plenty of hope and possibility - lots that can still happen. For at least six teams, though, none of the games left to play this year matter. Their seasons are over. They are done. Cooked. Finished. Totally without hope. They are a waste of the oxygen that fills their stadiums. Let's look at those poor, pathetic squads, what their future holds this year, and what, if anything, there is to be excited about concerning them. (Odds to win the World Series [like that's happening!] are from Bovada)

Daily Expert MLB Picks: Friday, May 18, 2018, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 5/17/2018

Don't kill the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL West just yet. L.A., which has won the West each of the past five years, just got two key components back off the DL, but perhaps more important the division-leading Arizona Diamondbacks are fading and just lost arguably their second-most important position player (after Paul Goldschmidt). That would be center fielder A.J. Pollock, who will miss 4-8 weeks with a broken left thumb suffered on an unsuccessful diving catch Monday that resulted in a Brewers inside-the-park home run.

Daily Expert MLB Picks: Thursday, May 17, 2018, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 5/16/2018

Seattle's Robinson Cano suffered a broken bone in his hand on Sunday and was going to miss quite a while. That we knew. What we didn't know was that Cano already had failed an MLB drug test and been suspended 80 games but had appealed. The broken hand, in one regard, came at an opportune time because news broke Tuesday that Cano would sit 80 games after he decided to drop the appeal. Cano tested positive for the diuretic Furosemide (also known as Lasix), which he said was prescribed to him by a doctor in his native Dominican Republic for a legitimate medical condition.

Daily Expert MLB Picks: Wednesday, May 16, 2018, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 5/15/2018

Have we seen the end of St. Louis Cardinals pitcher Adam Wainwright? If we have, the big right-hander belongs in not quite the Hall of Fame but the Hall of Very Good with his 147-84 record and 3.30 ERA. From 2008-14 he was clearly one of the best pitchers in baseball, but then injuries hit and Wainwright, except for a brief part of 2015 (limited to 28 innings), hasn't been the same since. His ERA in 2013 was 4.62 and then last year in 123.1 innings it ballooned to 5.11.

Daily Expert MLB Picks: Tuesday, May 15, 2018, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 5/14/2018

Many thought the Washington Nationals vastly overpaid when they traded three excellent pitching prospects to the Chicago White Sox a couple of winters ago for outfielder Adam Eaton. There's no question the White Sox have won that deal so far only because Eaton hasn't been able to stay on the field for Washington. He has played a total of 31 games for the Nats due to injuries (torn ACL last year) and just underwent arthroscopic ankle surgery last Thursday. It was performed in Green Bay by the Packers' orthopedist, Dr. Robert Anderson, an expert in the field of ankle injuries.

MLB Betting Trends: Totals Report for Hot Over and Under Teams
by Aaron Smith - 5/11/2018

After a series win over their rivals, the New York Yankees have matched the Boston Red Sox for the best record in baseball at 26-11. The Cleveland Indians are only 18-18, but that is good enough for first place in the awful American League Central. The Chicago White Sox have the worst record in baseball at 9-25. The American League West appears to be the most improved division in baseball. The Angels are tied with the Astros for the lead in the division. Oakland is no longer a bottom-feeder.

Daily Expert MLB Picks: Saturday, May 12, 2018, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 5/11/2018

What justifies calling a player an all-time great in franchise history in the four major American team sports leagues? Does he have to be in the Top 5? If so, then Andrew McCutchen isn't an all-time Pirate because he's behind at minimum guys like Honus Wagner, Roberto Clemente, Paul Waner, Willie Stargell and Barry Bonds. Probably Arky Vaughan and Ralph Kiner too. That said, McCutchen was one of the best Pirates of this century, no question, and for a five-year stretch from 2011-15 was one of the top all-around players in baseball.

Daily Expert MLB Picks: Friday, May 11, 2018, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 5/10/2018

I have zero rooting interest in the Oakland A's overall, but they now have a player on the big-league roster whom I'll be rooting for in a big way. That would be rookie Dustin Fowler. Unless you are a true-blue Yankees or A's fan, you might not know of him. The promising outfielder was called up late last June by the Yankees and played his first game June 29 at Guaranteed Rate Field, home of the White Sox. Before Fowler even got to bat in the majors, he suffered a gruesome knee injury after he crashed into the wall in foul territory chasing a ball hit by Jose Abreu with two outs and the bases empty in the first inning.

Daily Expert MLB Picks: Thursday, May 10, 2018, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 5/9/2018

If you read this column daily, you know the drill: Any time a pitcher throws a no-hitter, I have to lead with his next start in the hopes we see consecutive no-hitters for the second time in MLB history. Except, this wouldn't really be the same. That's because Dodgers highly-touted rookie Walker Buehler lasted just six no-hit innings in Mexico last Friday. L.A. isn't going to ruin this prized arm - Buehler also had Tommy John surgery three years ago not long after being a first-round pick - by allowing him to throw 125 pitches or something just for a no-no.

Daily Expert MLB Picks: Wednesday, May 9, 2018, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 5/8/2018

The San Francisco Giants haven't gotten much positive injury news this season, but this qualifies as some: Johnny Cueto will "only" miss 6-8 weeks with some elbow troubles. That's great news, actually, because Cueto went to see Dr. James Andrews, and that often means Tommy John surgery and more like 12-16 months on the sideline. Andrews told Cueto that he didn't have a torn ligament in the elbow and that rest should solve the problem.

Daily Expert MLB Picks: Tuesday, May 8, 2018, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 5/7/2018

We saw some history made on Friday when future Hall of Famer Albert Pujols of the Angels (his Hall of Fame cap will definitely be Cardinals) became the 32nd member of the 3,000-hit club and just the fourth of the 3,000-hit, 600-homer club along with Hank Aaron, Willie Mays and Alex Rodriguez. This is the fourth straight year we've seen a player get his 3,000th career hit, following Adrian Beltre in 2017, Ichiro Suzuki in 2016 and A-Rod in 2015.