Doc's Sports has some suggestions for NFL season totals for the 2004-05 season. All numbers come from the Imperial Palace in Las Vegas. This week Doc's will look at the AFC and next week we will examine some moneymaking opportunities in the NFC.
AFC Predictions:
New England
Posted Win Total - 10 ½ games
Doc's projected wins - 12
Play on the OVER
Analysis: The Patriots should pick up right where they left off after the 2003-04 season as they won 15 consecutive games which was capped by a Super Bowl win over Carolina. They did lose a few key players in the offseason - including NT Ted Washington and G Damien Woody. But they replaced Washington with another big body - Keith Traylor - and shored up their RB situation by picking up Corey Dillon from the Bengals. This team's success, however, was never about one or two guys. Their Super Bowl win can be credited to great coaching and a true team effort. QB Tom Brady is developing into one of the legendary clutch players ever to lace up the cleats. New England will be making a run for Jacksonville (site of Super Bowl XXXIX) and we seriously doubt they will win less than 11 games. New York Jets
Posted Win Total - 9
Doc's projected wins - 6
Play on the UNDER
Analysis: You are going to have to lay some juice here playing the under but we think it is a pretty safe bet as the division should be much improved. New England will be a playoff team and Miami should be in the hunt too. Buffalo will be better with new coach Mike Mularkey. This leaves the Jets as the odd team out and we expect them to finish at the bottom of the division. Young QB Chad Pennington is a future star in the league, but he will take more lumps until he has success. RB Curtis Martin is becoming less effective after being one of the hardest working backs in the league for nearly a decade. Runners in the NFL have the shortest careers of any position and Martin has had to carry the team on his shoulders for years. Even if Pennington plays his best, we don't see the Jets getting more than eight wins when taking his supporting cast into account.
Oakland Raiders
Posted Win Total - 7 ½
Doc's projected wins - 6
Play on the UNDER
Analysis: Even though the Raiders made some key acquisitions in the offseason, hoping to improve on their 4-12 campaign, it won't be enough to get them a winning season as they are entering the second year of what is going to be at least a three-year rebuilding effort. QB Rich Gannon is getting old. So is Jerry Rice. All signs point to Tim Brown parting ways with the team because management wanted him to accept a diminished role. The additions of DTs Warren Sapp and Ted Washington should help improve a defense that was dead last in the NFL against the run last season. The defense will have to be exceptional because the offense will be horrible unless Gannon can pull of a miracle and Brown and Rice can give one last gasp. They also have a lot of questions at RB.
Houston Texans
Posted Win Total - 6 ½
Doc's projected wins - 9
Play on the OVER
Analysis: This will be the Texans breakout year and they will no longer be thought of as an "expansion team." They showed signs of brilliance last year as they opened the season with a win at Miami and also notched wins at Buffalo and at home against NFC Champs Carolina. They had many other close games against some of the best teams in the league and with one more year of experience under their belts they will turn some of those close losses into wins. We expect a serious playoff run here even though they play in a division with Indianapolis and Tennessee (who they must play twice each). QB David Carr is the real deal and RB Domanick Davis is emerging as a franchise back. The offensive line is getting better all the time and allowing Carr more opportunities to work his magic. Combine that with an athletic, stingy defense and you have the makings of an up-and-coming team. Houston could get off to a fast start because three of their first four games are against San Diego, Detroit and Oakland. Success early in the season translates into confidence toward the end of the season and the playoffs. Yes, we said playoffs. But the Texans might be a year away in a tough AFC.
NFC Predictions:
Philadelphia
Posted Win Total - 10 ½ games
Doc's projected wins - 12
Play on the OVER
Analysis: Three strikes don't necessarily mean that the Eagles are out (of the running, that is). Philadelphia has been bounced from the NFC Championship Game three years in a row but they will make another run at Super Bowl glory this season. We think that they have the tools to get there and that they have the best chance to represent the conference in Jacksonville. They play in a division that will be improved from top to bottom however a couple of key offseason moves should get them over the hump and into the big game. WR has been a major issue in recent years and that problem has been solved with the addition of superstar Terrell Owens from San Francisco. Can Owens avoid controversy and help his team reach their post-season goals? We think so. DE Javon Kearse was brought in to help shore up a defense that was ranked No. 20 in the league last year. If he can avoid injury he will be a huge factor this season. The Eagles have been similar to the Patriots in the fact that they have seen success with solid QB play and a team effort with an absence of big name stars. The addition of a couple of big-name players will help elevate the team to the Super Bowl and we think this is their year to shine.
Seattle
Posted Win Total - 9 games
Doc's projected wins - 12
Play on the OVER
Analysis: This is another team that will make a strong push for the Super Bowl this year. Seattle now has some playoff experience under its belt, after it was knocked out of contention in Green Bay last year. The Seahawks are awesome at home and went undefeated at Seahawks Stadium last year. They should improve their performance on the road this year that could be crucial in landing some home-field advantage in the playoffs. They play in a weak division where it will be a two-team race for the top spot with the Rams. Two games each against the 49ers and the Cardinals virtually guarantees that the Hawks will reach almost half of this posted win total. The team had a potent offense last season and that should not change this year. The defense, however, has been the big drawback and the excuse for not making it further into the playoffs last year. In order to shore up that unit they culled DE Grant Winstrom from division rival St. Louis and they also brought in CB Bobby Taylor from Philadelphia. Three of their first four picks were on defense and those players will provide immediate depth to a unit that was ranked No. 19 in the NFL last year. On offense, all cylinders will be clicking and underrated RB Shaun Alexander will have another great year behind a stellar offensive line.
Dallas
Posted Win Total - 9 games
Doc's projected wins - 7
Play on the UNDER
Analysis: Dallas relied on its No. 1 defense last year for a surprising run to the playoffs. It will have a much tougher time repeating that feat this year, mainly because the division is much improved and the team will not be surprising anyone this time around. While it has always been said that defense wins championships, no team can rely on that side of the ball exclusively to get them to the big game. It looks like the Cowboys and second-year coach Bill Parcells are going to have to experience some more growing pains on offense in order to start playing at a championship level. Every facet of the Dallas offense if rife with question marks. The offensive line is young and inexperienced aside from veterans Larry Allen and Flozell Adams. Running back Troy Hambrick, who averaged a measly 3.5 yards per carry last season, which was worst among NFC starters, has been released and Eddie George has been brought in to take his place. George is on the decline and he might have some competition for carries with rookie Julius Jones. Whomever it is who gets the workload, he will likely struggle behind the Dallas O-line. Quarterback is also up in the air as last year's unspectacular starter Quincy Carter has been cut. Career journeyman Vinny Testaverde will compete with rookie Drew Henson for the starting job in camp. Testaverde will likely win the job but he is way past his prime. The team overachieved last year but this year they will come back to earth and they will likely finish third in the division behind the Eagles and Redskins.
New Orleans
Posted Win Total - 7 1/2 games
Doc's projected wins - 9
Play on the OVER
Analysis: Talk about underachieving! There probably isn't another team that has failed to reach its potential in the last several years than this squad. They have one of the best RBs in the game (Deuce McAllister) and a QB (Aaron Brooks) that is athletic as anyone in the game at his position, not to mention a potential star in WR Joe Horn. But the team has struggled to put it all together and coach Jim Haslett will be fired if the Saints fail to make the playoffs. The team is known more for its inconsistency than anything else. Last year part of the problem was a rash of injuries on defense and the team still finished 8-8. We think that this team will be able to put together a playoff run if everyone can stay healthy and if Brooks can finally become the dominant QB that he has shown signs that he can be.
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NFL 2004 Regular Season Wins from the Imperial Palace in Las Vegas
| Team | Total Wins | Over | Under |
| New England Patriots | 10 1/2 | -115 | -115 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 10 1/2 | +105 | -135 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 10 1/2 | -105 | -125 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 10 | EV | -130 |
| Tennessee Titans | 10 | +125 | -155 |
| St. Louis Rams | 9 1/2 | EV | -130 |
| Green Bay Packers | 9 1/2 | +115 | -145 |
| Denver Broncos | 9 | -125 | -105 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 9 | EV | -130 |
| Miami Dolphins | 9 | -150 | +120 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 9 | -135 | +105 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 9 | +105 | -135 |
| Washington Redskins | 9 | EV | -130 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 9 | -110 | -120 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 9 | -130 | EV |
| New York Jets | 9 | +125 | -155 |
| Carolina Panthers | 8 1/2 | -120 | -110 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 8 1/2 | -145 | +115 |
| Oakland Raiders | 7 1/2 | EV | -130 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 7 1/2 | -130 | EV |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 7 1/2 | EV | -130 |
| New Orleans Saints | 7 1/2 | -115 | -115 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 7 1/2 | -120 | -110 |
| Buffalo Bills | 7 1/2 | -110 | -120 |
| Cleveland Browns | 7 1/2 | +115 | -145 |
| Chicago Bears | 7 | +125 | -155 |
| New York Giants | 6 1/2 | +110 | -140 |
| San Francisco 49ers | off | off | off |
| Houston Texas | 6 1/2 | -120 | -110 |
| Detroit Lions | 6 1/2 | -145 | +115 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 5 1/2 | -135 | +105 |
| San Diego Chargers | 4 1/2 | -110 | -120 |