Super Bowl Props: Head-to-Head Matchup Predictions

by Ryan Cobbett - 2/7/2025

Super Bowl head-to-head matchup props odds and predictions Kareem Hunt Kansas City Chiefs

The Super Bowl is just a two days away. And as the work week ends, it is time to dive deep into all the props for the big game ahead. One such prop that has gained popularity in recent years is Head-to-Head Player Props. Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts give us two interesting head-to-head props to follow, both through the air and on the ground. Through this avenue, we are able to not only size up a player’s impact on the game but now size them up from their positional rival on the other sideline. Let’s take a look at some of the most intriguing head-to-head props for Super Bowl LIX.

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Total Passing Yards

Patrick Mahomes (-38.5) vs Jalen Hurts (+38.5)

Moneyline

Hurts: +170

Mahomes: -235

Combined Total: O/U 464.5, -115

It is not hard to figure out which of these two teams has the better passing attack. Mahomes averaged 245.5 passing YPG during the regular season and 211 in the postseason. Though there is a significant drop from his regular season numbers to the postseason, Mahomes is still producing more, through the air, than Hurts. Hurts is averaging just 168.3 passing YPG in the postseason, which is 42.7 YPG less than Mahomes. In addition to the averages, the Eagles run the ball more frequently than any other team in the NFL, and that has carried over to the postseason, as they have accumulated 62.2% of their total yards on the ground. Despite their regular season numbers, the Eagles secondary has struggled some during the postseason, as they are allowing over 245 passing YPG. Both quarterbacks will make their statement on this one, but Mahomes will do it through the air, while Hurts will compliment Saquon Barkley on the ground. As for the combined total between the two quarterbacks, I am taking the under. Ahead of this matchup, the two are averaging a combined 379.3 passing YPG, which is well below the 464.5 total for this game. Plus, the Eagles will be focused on keeping the ball out of Mahomes’ hands and will aim to control time of possession.

My Pick: Mahomes (-38.5) / Under 464.5 total passing yards, -115

Total Receiving Yards

A.J. Brown (-9.5) vs Travis Kelce (+9.5)

Moneyline

Kelce: +120

Brown: -150

Combined Total: O/U 132.5, -115

I like for Travis Kelce to keep this one close and win the receiving battle outright between him and A.J. Brown. Kelce has the better quarterback throwing too him. And though he is not the same receiving threat as he used to be, Kelce is still averaging 15.1 yards per reception and he is averaging more YAC than Brown is, during the playoffs. Xavier Worthy has emerged on the scene and has given the Chiefs receiving game another threat that can take away defensive attention from their star tight end. Kelce knows how to show up for the big games, and he will win this battle outright. As for the total yards between these two, Kelce alone will reach the 90-yard mark, and Brown has averaged 40 receiving YPG in the playoffs and was averaging double that during the regular season. The two will far exceed the 132.5 receiving yard total set for the pair.

My Pick: Kelce +120 / Over 132.5, -115

Saquon Barkley (-6.5) vs Kareem Hunt (+6.5)

Hunt: +140

Barkley: -175

Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco have combined for just five targets through the Chiefs first two playoff games. Barkley alone has eight and has brought in seven of those for 35 receiving yards. Hunt averaged just 13.5 receiving YPG during the regular season. Barkley’s numbers weren’t much better over the regular season, but the running back has averaged over 26 receiving YPG in his career. Barkley is clearly the best playmaker for the Eagles offense, and they will utilize his above average receiving abilities and he will end up with a lot more than seven more receiving yards than Hunt.

My Pick: Barkley (-6.5)

Xavier Worthy (-5.5) vs DeVonta Smith (+5.5)

Smith: +110

Worthy: -140

Xavier Worthy and DeVonta Smith are the second-best choices for their quarterbacks. Both players finished second on their respective teams in receiving, but Smith’s numbers were much better. Smith finished with 195 more receiving yards while also playing four less games in the regular season. Smith averaged 26.6 more receiving YPG than Worthy. During the postseason, that has flipped. Worthy is averaging 65 YPG, while Smith is averaging just 40.3 and has seen a decline in targets. There are all kinds of trends out there that would signal to the Chiefs playing from behind at some point in this game. The Eagles are opening games at an elite pace and jumping to early leads, and the Chiefs are slow to get going after halftime. With that said, they are likely to have a higher need for chunk plays and that will give Worthy the edge here.

My Pick: Worthy (-5.5)

Total Rushing Yards

Saquon Barkley (-65.5) vs Kareem Hunt (+65.5)

Hunt: -115

Barkley: -115

Combined Total: O/U 155.5, -115

Give me Barkley here as well to win another head-to-head against Hunt. Barkley is averaging nearly 150 rushing YPG this postseason and was averaging over 125 YPG during the regular season. He will also have the advantage in volume as the Eagles run the ball more than anyone else in the NFL and Barkley is responsible for 63.5% of his teams carries this postseason, while Hunt is responsible for just 43.9% of the Chiefs carries. As for the combined total of 155.5 rushing yards between these two running backs, Barkley alone has averaged 147.3 rushing YPG during the postseason and he will get a lot of carries early on in this one as the Eagles look to control the clock. Look for both of these backs to combine for triple digit rushing yards in the first half of this game, and hitting the over on this game total with ease.

My Pick: Barkley (-65.5) / Over 155.5, -115

Jalen Hurts (-9.5) vs Patrick Mahomes (+9.5)

Mahomes: +130

Hurts: -175

This one also seems like a no brainer. Not only is there a far gap separating the two in terms of pure running ability, but the approach to the game alone for Philadelphia is enough to want to take Hurts here. The Eagles are going to establish the ground game, and Hurts is a big part of that approach. Both gunslingers have solid scramble abilities, but in open space Hurts is more dangerous and would also be more willing to take a hit and extend the play over Mahomes. Hurts recorded 630 rushing yards during the regular season, which is twice as much as Mahomes. Hurts should win this one rather easily.

My Pick: Hurts (-9.5)

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Start:	February 8, 2025 @ 11:59 PM
Expert:	Arun Shiva (Indian Cowboy)
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